801
FXUS64 KLUB 300509
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1209 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Triple digit heat continues through Friday. A Heat Advisory is
  in effect for areas off the Caprock on Thursday.

- Scattered storms are expected on Friday, with the greatest
  coverage being on the Caprock (40-60% chance). Locally heavy
  rainfall and gusty winds are possible with the storms. Storm
  chances linger into Saturday.

- Slightly cooler this weekend, before warming back up next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

An amplified ridge persists over the central US, with 500mb
heights around 595 dam over W TX/E NM. As has been the case in
recent days, convection has been developing along the periphery of
the upper ridge this evening, as well as the higher terrain west
of the ridge axis. This precip activity is expected to stay north
and west of the forecast area tonight.

A shortwave will eject onto the central Plains early Thurs, acting
to flatten the ridge over the central CONUS but leaving 500mb
heights largely unchanged over the southern Plains. Hot conditions
are expected to continue through the end of the work week. High
temps on Wed reached the upper 90s on the Caprock and low to mid
100s off the Caprock, generally a few degrees cooler than NBM
guidance. However, hotter conditions are anticipated on Thurs as
850mb temps increase slightly, pushing highs to near 100 on the
Caprock and mid 100s off the Caprock. A Heat Advisory was issued
for most areas off the Caprock for Thursday (1-9 PM).

With that shortwave passing by to the north, the associated
forcing may give storms a better chance of reaching the far
southern TX Panhandle compared to this evening. The latest high-
res models show storms rolling off the higher terrain, reaching
the TX Panhandle Thurs eve and the far southern TX Panhandle late
Thurs eve. Felt there was enough of a signal to add a slight
chance of PoPs to the forecast. Gusty winds are possible with any
storms that do develop Thurs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

As the aforementioned shortwave continues east and deepens, a sfc
low is expected to be over the Midwest on Fri, and the associated
front pushes south into OK and the TX Panhandle on Fri/Sat.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge remains strong but shifts west, with
modest height falls locally, which will be less detrimental to
precip development. Models vary in the exact timing of the front,
but expect a wind shift to northeasterly at some point Fri-Fri
night.

Between the front itself, as well as NW flow aloft on the east
side of the upper ridge acting to guide storms off the higher
terrain towards W TX, there is a decent signal for scattered
showers and storms Fri (20-60% chance, highest on the Caprock).
PWAT values are expected to be seasonably high, approaching 1.5"
(90-95th percentile). Forecast soundings also show the typical
inverted-V signature during the afternoon/evening. Thus, locally
heavy rain and strong wind gusts will be the main concerns with
any storms Friday. The latest run of the REFS depicts localized
rainfall amounts of 1-2", and there is a corresponding marginal
risk of excessive rainfall. Storm chances linger on Sat, but the
coverage is not expected to be as high as Fri.

Following the frontal passage, temps are expected to be marginally
cooler over the weekend, with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Into
next week, the upper pattern features a progressive polar jet
stream, while persistent upper ridging persists over the Four
Corners and southern Plains. This pattern should allow above
normal temps and mostly dry conditions to persist for much of next
week. There is a 50-70% chance for triple digit temps each day
off the Caprock, but just a 10-30% chance on the Caprock.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR and light south winds will continue at all sites.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...30