449
FXUS64 KLUB 280519
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1219 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

 - Warm and dry Monday.

 - Rain likely early Tuesday through Thursday, potentially heavy
   at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

An upper ridge will continue to have influence over the region for
much of the day Monday and conditions will be very similar to that
of Sunday. Cloud cover will increase through the afternoon, however
no precipitation is expected and highs will top out in the mid 80s
to mid 90s. The pattern will become much more active Monday night.
More details below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

An upper low will descend over Southern California through the day
Monday. As it gradually shifts south and eastward Monday night into
Tuesday, the already strong Pacific moisture fetch from
associated SW flow aloft will absorb the additional remnant
moisture from Hurricane Polo which will all be advected into our
vicinity. Although models are still coming into a consensus, the
general thinking remains the same from previous forecasts. Rain
should begin early Tuesday morning near the TX/NM border and
gradually track eastward through the day. Again model timing
varies, however heaviest rain is expected to overspread the area
at some point from Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning before a
dry slot builds in as the low occludes. Also of note is the
associated surface low positioned to the west on Tuesday combined
with a fairly strong low-level jet will bring breezy southerly
winds during the afternoon, potentially gusting up to 40 mph. A
trough moving over central Canada will push the upper low back due
southward Wednesday into Thursday and depending on the exact
track, further precipitation is possible along its backside
Thursday into Friday. All this to say, there remains much
uncertainty this week, but in a nutshell heavy rainfall and
localized flooding are possible (with slightly higher chances
generally on the Caprock). We will continue to monitor and update
the forecast as needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Light northeasterly winds at the start of the period will shift to
southeasterly by early afternoon. Some fog cannot be ruled out at
KCDS around daybreak, but potential seemed too low to include in
the TAF at this time. Dry conditions should continue through this
period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24