799
FXUS64 KLUB 031141
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
641 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

 - Thunderstorms are possible this morning mainly off the Caprock,
   and again this afternoon and evening area-wide.

 - Triple digit high temperatures are expected by Wednesday and
   continuing through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

An MCS is currently observed over the northwestern Panhandle at 12
AM, slowly tracking southeastward. The associated upper wave and
LLJ will move over the area early this morning. Both synoptic and
reliable CAMs (namely HRRR/RAP) show it making to the far SE
Panhandle and portions of the Rolling Plains around 6am and
continuing southward through the morning. As with previous days,
locally heavy rain/flooding and strong winds remain possible.
Showers and thunderstorms should depart the area by mid-to-late
morning and skies will clear into the afternoon. Surface winds
will switch to southerly allowing for high temperatures to be a
few degrees warmer than yesterday. Another wave and its associated
surface front will propagate ahead of upper high pressure
centered over the Desert Southwest and bring additional storm
chances this evening. While there remains some uncertainty, the
general consensus is that these storms will form late-
afternoon/early evening and should remain east of I-27 with the
same threats as mentioned above although wind could be a greater
factor should a squall line form. Any storms should dissipate
and/or exit the CWA by midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The long term forecast is on track for hot temperatures and dry
conditions. An upper ridge sitting over northern Mexico/southwestern
CONUS will continue to expand north and east through the work week.
Monday is expected to a nice day with cooler than normal
temperatures. A surface trough will shift surface winds to the east
and sufficient moisture with dewpoints in the 60s will keep highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday. Sadly, the rest of the week
will not be as nice with above seasonal normal temperatures.
Increasing heights from the ridge setting up over the region will
warm up temperatures. Models indicate 500 mb geopotential heights
reaching 600 dam by mid-week. As a result, a majority of the
region will reach at or above 100 degrees through the latter half
of the week. High temperatures at the moment are below heat
advisory criteria (105 degrees), however as it is a few days out,
a heat advisory is possible. On top of the hot temperatures, we
can also expect dry conditions. Subsidence from the overhead ridge
will hinder any chances for convective development. Temperatures
will slightly cool (sadly, only a couple of degrees) by the
weekend as the upper ridging begins to weaken as an upper trough
builds off the coast of the Pacific northwest and tracks over the
northern CONUS although precipitation chances remain near zero.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A complex of thunderstorms over the SE TX Panhandle at 11z will
continue to move southeastward through the rest of this morning.
Convective impacts are likely to continue at KCDS through much of
the morning hours with strong winds possible in addition to
periods of MVFR CIGs and visibility. Thunder is much less likely
at KPVW and KLBB this morning, with impacts expected to be limited
to a period of stronger winds from outflow. A break in convection
is expected around midday before isolated to scattered TS develop
once again this afternoon and likely persist into the evening.
Impacts from afternoon/evening convection are most likely at KLBB
and KPVW but are still far from certain, and will therefore carry
a PROB30 at both sites until confidence improves. Outside of
convection, VFR will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30