524
FXUS64 KLUB 171944
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
244 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

 - Triple-digit temperatures expected for much of the region
   through this evening, and a Heat Advisory is in effect for much
   of the South Plains through 9 PM.

 - There is a low chance of thunderstorms mainly off the Caprock
   this evening and again Wednesday afternoon, some storms may be
   strong or severe.

 - Dry and unseasonably hot conditions are expected Thursday
   through the weekend before low storm chances return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Upper air analysis early this afternoon depicts broadly cyclonic
flow aloft in place over most of the CONUS, with flat upper ridging
centered over NW Mexico and Baja CA. A quick-moving upper shortwave
trough was passing over CO at 18z, with this feature expected to
continue moving eastward over KS and into MO this evening. At the
surface, a dryline continues to sharpen near the I-27 corridor with
broad surface troughing continuing to deepen over eastern NM. The
dryline will continue to mix east through the rest of the afternoon
and will position near the edge of the Caprock by this evening.
Robust thunderstorm development associated with the aforementioned
upper shortwave trough is still expected to remain well to our
northeast this evening in closer proximity to the stronger large
scale forcing. However, weak low level confluence associated with
the surface trough and dryline circulation could also result in a
few isolated storms essentially anywhere east of I-27 this
evening. Current thinking is that any storms will remain fairly
short-lived and quite sparse in coverage across our area given
the relatively dry and well-mixed boundary layer and the
displacement of the large scale forcing to our northeast. Still,
if a stronger or longer-lived cell can establish, the relatively
dry sub-cloud layer and forecast deep inverted-v sounding
structures point to a potential for an instance or two of a strong
or severe wind gust, especially over the SE TX Panhandle and the
Rolling Plains.

Dry conditions are expected area-wide tonight. A cold front will
slowly move southward through the overnight hours, with the
associated shift to northeasterly surface flow arriving to the
entire forecast area by sunrise on Wednesday. Temperatures on
Wednesday behind the front will be cooler than today, but the
cooldown will be subtle given the influence of expanding upper
ridging to our west. Most areas are expected to see highs in the
upper 80s to mid 90s, still near or above average for this time of
year. Surface flow will remain predominantly northeasterly to
easterly throughout the day, with a surface trough extending from
the Permian Basin up into the Rolling Plains keeping at least some
areas off the Caprock within southerly surface flow. The majority of
the forecast area is expected to remain dry on Wednesday, though
there is a slight chance of evening thunderstorms across the
southern Rolling Plains within the zone of weak confluence
associated with the aforementioned surface trough. Plentiful
instability may support a strong or severe storm or two in this
area, but a displacement of the strongest forcing to our east is
once again expected to keep the severe threat relatively limited
across our forecast area on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Dry and unseasonably hot weather is expected across West Texas from
Thursday through the upcoming weekend as upper level ridging
initially over the desert southwest builds northeastward. Friday and
Saturday are currently expected to be the hottest days of the
extended forecast period as the ridge axis centers overhead, with
highs in the mid 90s to near 100 each day under clear skies. Sunday
into early next week, the upper ridge will shift to our east and
center over the OH Valley as broad upper troughing deepens over
the western half of the CONUS. This will result in a slight
cooldown as highs return to values near average, and will also
bring a period of southerly to southwesterly flow aloft over West
Texas which is progged to persist from Sunday into next week.
Medium range models are in fairly good agreement depicting a
mid/upper level moisture plume within the southwest flow aloft
which will result in a gradual increase in storm chances primarily
on the Caprock beginning on Sunday and continuing into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period. Strong SSW
winds with gusts near 30 kt will continue through the rest of this
afternoon, then weaken slightly and turn more SSE this evening.
Some isolated TS may develop to the east of LBB/PVW late this
afternoon and may impact CDS this evening, but confidence of
coverage and location of TS is low at this time. Strong and
erratic downburst winds should be expected near any convection
today. Winds will then become northerly behind a cold front late
tonight through early Wednesday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ027-028-033>035-
039>041.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30