Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
205 FXUS64 KLUB 121118 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 518 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 517 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 - Very warm and dry conditions expected through Saturday. - Cooler with slight precipitation chances Sunday. Quiet conditions early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1132 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 Quiet conditions will continue this morning through tonight. A weak cold front that pushed into the FA earlier Tuesday evening will continue drifting southward, moving south of the FA by sunrise. This front will help lower afternoon highs into the 70s area wide. Winds will begin to slowly veer this afternoon as a surface lee trough develops, with winds becoming westerly by late evening. Though winds will be light, the westerly component along with the building overhead ridge will help keep overnight lows on the warm side, low/mid 40s area wide. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1132 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 A strong upper ridge with heights of ~585 Dm will persist over the region Thursday and Friday. Combined with southwesterly surface flow, will bring potential for record high temperatures both days. Outside of the far SW Panhandle, highs are expected to reach the mid- to-upper 80s under sunny skies. Elevated fire weather concerns are possible both days. While originally Saturday looked to be a transition to a cooler/wetter pattern, long range models now are coming into consensus on a much slower progression on a cutoff upper low moving onshore over southern California. With continued SW flow out ahead of it, Saturday will see similarly well-above average temperatures if the current solutions hold. As with yesterday, the GFS lifts this low off to the north and west much faster than the ECMWF on Sunday. If the latter verifies, this would provide us with the greatest precipitation chances. That said, given the continued uncertainty, only slight chances have been retained in the latest forecast for Sunday. Weak ridging behind the low should bring benign conditions into the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 VFR and light winds will prevail through this TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...30