Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
808 FXUS64 KLUB 291114 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 514 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 - A strong cold front will bring breezy conditions to the region this morning and afternoon, followed by notably colder weather Sunday and Monday. - Generally cooler and dry next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 A strong cold front remains on track for later today. The cold front stretches from Spearfish, South Dakota southwestward to Saratoga, Wyoming as of 10 PM. The cold front should make steady progress southeastward through the early morning hours and begin pushing into our northern zones around 15Z, being south of the FA well before 18Z. Winds will be breezy and out of the southwest ahead of the front. The high temperature forecast for today will be rather tricky and will fully rely on the timing of the FROPA. While the fastest model, the NAM, has the front entering our northern zones by 15Z, it will not be out of the question for the front to push through an hour or two before then. Models tend to be slower with FROPAs, especially strong fronts. The sooner the FROPA, the cooler the high temp. Given the quick moving nature of the front, highs have been lowered slightly from NBM. One factor that will keep temps from cooling too quickly will be clear skies. Winds will be on the windy side behind the front as well thanks to pressure rises of roughly 2-4 mb per three hours. Winds will begin to diminish after sunset as surface high pressure begins to settle over the Central Plains with ridging extending southward to the Rio Grande Valley. Winds will become light and more eastwardly by 12Z Sunday morning. This will help to increase cloud cover by Sunrise Sunday morning. Continued CAA will help overnight lows drop into the teens and 20s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Sunday will start off next week with some of the coldest air of the year thus far. As there will be surface SE flow, much of this cold air will originate from aloft with 1000-850 mb and 1000-700 mb thicknesses specifically dropping quite a bit from what they are now. Highs across the entire area Sunday are only expected to be on the either side of 40. The coldest aforementioned thicknesses will shift off to the north and east Monday, although a second surface cold front will move through during the afternoon and lead to well- below average highs once again in the mid-to-upper 40s for most locations along with breezy NW flow in the afternoon/evening. Tuesday will see a reprieve from the cold as surface SW flow returns southeast of lee cyclogenesis in the Rockies ahead of an upper shortwave. Despite NE surface winds Wednesday, highs should remain in the 50s. Another cold front Thursday drops highs back into the 40s before warmer air returns Friday into next weekend. The only precipitation chances will occur Thursday along the front. Currently the GFS shows QPF farthest west, with other models keeping it to the east of our CWA. Thus only slight chances have been put in the latest forecast for the time being. Otherwise, in short expect a dry week with generally cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Back edge of IFR ceilings and some light fog was lingering near LBB at 5 AM but should clear out for good in another hour or so as drier WSW winds arrive. Cold front currently in the northeast TX Panhandle will sweep south with FROPA from 15-17Z at the terminals. Expect northerly gusts of 25-30 knots before dialing lower by sunset. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...93