691
FXUS64 KLUB 261946
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
246 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level high pressure
system centered over southern New Mexico. This feature should
meander to the east through the period, causing northerly flow aloft
to become calm and variable by Thursday afternoon. Increasing
subsidence from the nearby subtropical high should help to produce
hot daytime temperatures across the forecast area today, with
widespread 100+ degree F highs expected. With backed southeasterly
flow helping to sustain surface moisture this afternoon, heat index
values above 105 have already been observed, and a Heat Advisory is
in effect until 8pm for the Rolling Plains and far southeastern
TXPH. If you plan to be active outdoors this afternoon and evening,
drink plenty of fluids and make sure to take frequent breaks.

This afternoon and evening, there are two areas of focus for the
potential for thunderstorm development. First, surface troughing and
an uncapped environment should allow for convective initiation in
eastern NM later this afternoon. Depending on the placement of these
storms, NNW steering flow could allow isolated thunderstorms to
propagate into the western South Plains or far southwest TXPH this
afternoon and evening. Also, a diffuse surface boundary is currently
located across the northern half of the forecast area. A high-based
Cu field is evident on visible satellite along this area of
convergence, but storm development here is far from certain.
Isolated TS PoPs have been added for this afternoon and evening
along the boundary. Inverted-v soundings with ample CAPE near CDS
demonstrate that if storms develop across the far southern TXPH,
strong to severe wind gusts of 50-60 mph are possible. Storms should
diminish overnight, but the far southwest TXPH may still see an
isolated thunderstorm after midnight. Tomorrow`s forecast is
expected to be quieter, with no mentionable PoPs through the
afternoon and early evening.

With the upper-level high continuing to dominate tomorrow, expect
hot temperatures across the forecast area. Morning lows will be
mild, and high temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90s and
low 100s, with the hottest temps off the Caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The ridge will continue to flatten Friday, centered just south of
the forecast area stretching from Baja Cali to Mississippi.
Meanwhile, the upper trough responsible for flattening the ridge
will be pushing eastward across the Plains. Thus, flow aloft will
remain nearly zonal with generally weak westerly winds at 500mb.
Despite modest low level moisture and dewpoints in the upper 50s
with southerly surface winds, temperature are progged to be very hot
in the triple digits (between 100-105 degrees) across nearly the
entire forecast area. A few cumulus clouds may bubble Friday
afternoon, but the better flow and moisture aloft will be to the
north with the associated trough axis. A few storms may develop
along the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico, but with weak flow
aloft and a lack of any true instability, any storms that develop
will struggle to maintain strength into the western South Plains.

Saturday will feature increased precipitation chances, but there
remains uncertainty in the coverage and chances for rain due to
several factors. First, models are trending towards the ridge
building slightly northward as the trough in the Plains continues to
swing across the Midwest with stronger subsidence over the forecast
area, which could limit the storm potential. In addition, the
moisture wrapping around the western periphery of the ridge will be
placed just west and north of the area. The passing trough will give
way to lee cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado, which will deepen
as it`s pushed southward into the Texas Panhandle during the daytime
hours Saturday. Model solutions vary on the exact movement and
placement of this surface low Saturday, which may heavily play a
role in a zone for surface convergence and the greater precipitation
chances. Upper 50s dewpoints and very warm temperatures in the 90s
ahead of the very weak frontal boundary will still give way to the
potential for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead of the
surface boundary. Once again storm maintenance will be an issue with
weak flow aloft, despite MLCAPE values in excess of 1000-1500 J/kg
and shear of 15 to 20 knots. Any storm that develops will likely
remain pulse-like with a few strong wind gusts and small hail
possible.

The upper high will continue to spin over North Texas through early
next week with continued hot temperatures in the upper 90s across
the Caprock and lower triple digits (near Heat Advisory criteria)
off the Caprock. Mostly dry conditions will remain with the better
midlevel moisture axis around the high pressure to the west in New
Mexico and north across the Texas Panhandle. Hope for the return of
precipitation is not over though as chances increase by mid-to-late
next week as the pattern shifts aloft and the upper ridge starts to
slide eastward with the potential return of southwesterly flow
aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all terminals through
tomorrow. There is a potential for thunderstorms to develop
northwest of LBB and PVW. However, confidence remains low that
any airports will be impacted, so have left mentions out of the
TAF at this time. Check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-
037-038-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DF
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...DF