206
FXUS64 KLUB 162347
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
647 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 645 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight.
   This activity should remain below severe limits.


 - Additional thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and
   evening.

 - Hot and dry weather is expected Friday through Tuesday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

PoPs were added into the forecast through 12Z/7 AM CDT tomorrow
morning, with coverage of PoPs confined to the Rolling Plains until
06Z and expanding area-wide thereafter. Isolated showers and single-
cell thunderstorms have recently formed across the southeastern
Rolling Plains, and coverage could become widely- scattered as the
low-level jet begins to accelerate. Storm motions will be nearly
stationary until the boundary-layer decouples, with a more-poleward
movement expected after dark in concert with the strengthening low-
level jet. As the low-level jet begins to veer later tonight,
coverage of showers and storms will diminish towards sunrise. There
remains the potential for storms to move in from the TX PH later
tonight as well. A rainfall report from Post at 2330Z observed 0.75"
of rain within 15 minutes. Please see the short-term discussion
below for details.

Sincavage

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday evening)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Mid to upper level subtropical ridging persists over majority of
the CONUS as an upper low rotates over Baja California. Height
rises will continue to warm temperatures back to seasonal normal
through the afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Breezy
southerly winds continue the rest of today and through the
overnight hours, however are expected to weaken just before
sunrise. Winds will slightly shift to the southeast this evening
drawing in moisture from the Gulf, keeping the dewpoints in the
60s. Southeasterly upslope winds will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms over eastern/northeastern New Mexico this evening
and are progged to track southeastward into the far southern Texas
Panhandle after midnight. A low-level jet will aid in the slow
decay of these storms. Any storms that do make it into are region
are expected to remain sub-severe.

The low-level jet will weaken and storm chances decrease before
sunrise tomorrow. The subtropical ridge will remain overhead through
Thursday. During daytime hours on Thursday, it is expected to be dry
and sunny with temperatures warming to the mid to upper 90s. A weak
front is progged to track southward through the Texas Panhandle
tomorrow afternoon, however models indicate the front barely
reaching our northern row of counties before back tracking.
Depending on timing and how far south the front pushes into our
region, high temperatures for northern portions of the CWA may only
reach lower 90s. Shower and thunderstorm chances return tomorrow
late afternoon and evening following the front. Location of the
storms are uncertain at the moment as it is dependent on how far
south the front tracks through the CWA. With minimal forcing and
instability, any storms that do develop will be sub-severe.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Jul 16
2025

The forecast calls for hot and dry Friday through Tuesday. Drying
in mid atmosphere will lead to less cloud cover allowing highs to
edge upward. We expect afternoon temps to peak ranging from mid
90s to near 102 for most days.

The subtropical high currently over the southeast part of the
country from east Texas to the eastern seaboard is forecast to
expand westward into our region over the next few days. The
monsoonal moisture should remain mostly to our west, although the
latest operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF show some of that
moisture expanding east across the local area next week. If that
occurs, would not be surprised to have to reintroduce isolated
late afternoon or evening storms into the forecast, especially
for areas northwest of Lubbock.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Uncertainty lies with a decaying line of storms that will work
its way into far southern Texas panhandle by mid morning on
Thursday. CDS is most likely to be affected with the potential for
some wind shifts though we are expecting conditions to remain
VFR. Pulse thunderstorms are possible for the CDS and PVW
terminals Thursday afternoon, though uncertainty is too high to
include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...26