358
FXUS64 KLUB 070430
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1130 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

 - Above average temperatures persist into next week.

 - Slight chance of thunderstorms Friday evening mainly across
   the far southern Panhandle.

 - Increasing chances of precipitation around the middle of next
   week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Convection is currently firing over the Raton Mesa into southwestern
Kansas this evening and will slowly drift southward through the
nighttime hours. Modest winds at 850mb will allow this convection to
sustain itself through the nighttime hours southward through the
Texas Panhandle. Although this convective activity is unlikely to
reach the FA, some light rain showers may remain early Friday
morning. By Friday afternoon, several CAMs depict additional
convection developing over the southern Texas Panhandle. The forcing
for this activity is not clear at the moment but could be from
remnant outflow boundaries from overnight convection. Weak flow
through the atmospheric column will keep storms pulsy that do
develop. Additionally, a hot and dry boundary layer will lead to
high cloud bases which will bring the potential for strong wind
gusts. A surface trough will be located across eastern New Mexico
again on Friday afternoon leading to convection off of the higher
terrain. However, upper level flow will turn more northeasterly
decreasing chances of this convection making it into the South
Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Friday may be the only meaningful chance of measurable precipitation
through at least early next week. The upper level ridge centered
around the four corners through the weekend will begin to weaken by
the middle of next week as troughing enters the Pacific Northwest.
The upper ridge will then shift into the southeastern US potentially
bringing increased chances of precipitation from the middle to late
next week. Unfortunately, the weakening of the ridge will not bring
any relief in temperatures with values on the order of near average
to five degrees above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR with SSW winds increasing to 12-15 knots by late morning. TS
presently in the northern TX Panhandle are scheduled to dissipate
in the next couple of hours, but could spread some -RA into CDS by
dawn. Any TS Friday night are expected to stay well NW of PVW & LBB.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...93