145
FXUS64 KLUB 050447
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1047 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1043 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

 - Below-average temperatures and mostly dry conditions into next
   week.

 - Breezy northerly winds Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A quiet night is expected tonight with clear skies and light
southerly winds. Lows will fall into the mid 40s to low 50s. A
positively tilted upper trough will track southeastward across our
area Thursday along with its associated surface cold front. The
precipitation is expected to entirely miss our area and remain over
Oklahoma, however we will not be completely devoid of impacts as
breezy northerly winds will develop behind the front. Gusts of 30-35
mph will peak from late morning through early afternoon. This will
subsequently lead to falling temperatures, with highs struggling to
reach 60 on the Caprock. Some low cloud cover will follow the
trough axis, however skies will clear in its wake. Winds will
significantly diminish overnight into Friday, which will allow for
chilly Friday morning lows potentially at or near freezing over
the far southwest Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A weak ridge will bring benign conditions and continued cooler
temperatures as 500 mb heights remain relatively low. A quasi-split
upper flow will develop over the Desert Southwest early Saturday.
Leading shortwaves out ahead of it will propagate over southern
portions of our area and bring precipitation chances in the mainly
morning as well with increased mid-level Pacific moisture advection
given the overall upper trough orientation. It remains somewhat
uncertain how far north this will reach, however even if the
somewhat later ECMWF verifies, it would be more rain than thunder
and move out relatively quickly. Another disturbance may track to
the east on Sunday, but conditions look to remain dry. Temperatures
will slowly increase next week as a ridge builds in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Breezy winds out of the north will develop at all sites mid-
morning Thursday, with gusts up to 30 kts possible. MVFR CIGs are
possible at all sites for much of the mid-morning through
afternoon hours. Skies are expected to clear in the evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...19