Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
074 FXUS64 KLUB 090538 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1238 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - Patchy to areas of fog possible for the far southern and southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains through the morning hours. - Possible elevated fire weather concerns this weekend due to warmer temperatures and breezy southerly winds. - Precipitation chances return Sunday and continue through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Current surface observations indicate patchy fog has formed over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle with KCDS showing visibility as low as 2 miles. Patchy fog will be possible over the far southern and southeastern Texas Panhandle as well as northern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains through the morning hours. Hopefully you enjoyed the cooler and cloudy conditions the past couple of days as we are expected to warm up and dry out. For the upper levels, upper ridging has set up over majority of Texas and will remain stagnant over the region through today. Slight height and thickness increases will increase temperatures today. Some areas, especially off the Caprock, will have highs a few degrees above seasonal normal. High temperatures over western portions of the FA will be in the lower 80s while highs will be in the lower 90s for eastern portions of the region. Light southerly surface winds will prevail through today and tonight as a lee surface trough sits over eastern CO and western KS. Tonight will be quiet and cool with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 The warm and dry trend that began Thursday will continue through the weekend. Models indicate the upper ridging will continue to remain over the region through Sunday. Heights and thicknesses will continue to gradually increase through the weekend effectively increasing temperatures with highs reaching up to mid 90s by Sunday. A tightening lee surface trough over the CO/KS state line will increase southerly surface flow over the weekend. Wind speeds up to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will be possible. Warmer temperatures and strong southerly winds will possibly bring elevated fire weather conditions Saturday and Sunday. The upper pattern is expected to change by the beginning of next week. An upper trough will swing over the Pacific NW on Saturday. By Sunday, the same upper trough will push the ridging to the southeast as it treks over the Intermountain West effectively shifting to southwesterly flow aloft ushering in subtropical moisture to the mid to upper levels. Southwesterly flow will prevail through much of next week as the ridging is expected to remain stagnant to the southeast of our region and a secondary upper trough translates over the western CONUS. Precipitation chances return Sunday afternoon with the increase of upper level moisture, especially with a tropical system possibly getting absorbed into the southwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation chances continue through Monday and into Tuesday morning as models indicate a cold front tracking south into the region. This will result in the possibility of a wide range of highs in the lower 70s to lower 90s on Monday. However, the timing and how far south the front treks is uncertain at the moment, therefore left NBM temperatures and PoPs as is at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Biggest concern overnight will be potential for visibility restrictions from BR/FG, especially at CDS. Periods of IFR vis have already occurred earlier in the evening at CDS, and it appears likely that IFR vis will continue there overnight through a few hours after sunrise. There is also a possibility of vis and/or CIGs falling below airport minimums at CDS overnight, but if/when this occurs is uncertain. At LBB and PVW, potential for BR/FG is also present but probability of impacts is lower than at CDS. VFR is expected to return to all TAF sites by this afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...10