Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
920 FXUS64 KLUB 291116 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 616 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are possible this afternoon and evening with chances for flooding. - Storm chances continue through the weekend with flooding potential again Saturday evening through early Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Today will be the start to a few days of potential heavy rainfall. Current surface analysis shows the cold front from yesterday has cleared the region. The front is expected to stall slightly outside of the CWA over central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Current satellite imagery shows a couple lingering storms that are expected to clear within the next hour. The rest of the morning and afternoon are expected to be dry and mostly clear skies this afternoon. However, easterly surface flow ushering in cool air will keep temperatures below normal for much of the region. A wide range of highs are expected with lower 80s over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and lower 90s over southern portions of the South Plains. The main concern for the short term package is the chances for showers and thunderstorms, some severe, with the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding this evening as an embedded shortwave perturbation tracks over the Texas Panhandle later today. Upper ridging persists over southwestern CONUS and northern Mexico as an upper trough sits over northeastern CONUS. The CWA sits directly under the path of the northwesterly jet streak between the two upper disturbances. Upper moisture has filled in over the region as well due to a subtropical plume riding the apex of the ridge into the northwesterly flow aloft. On the surface, prevailing easterly winds will usher in surface moisture increasing dewpoints to the upper 60s to lower 70s by this afternoon. upslope surface flow will aide in scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms developing over eastern New Mexico and track into our region through the evening. Some models indicate these clusters of storm could organize into an MCS over western portions of the region and trek southeast. This is plausible with soundings showing shear values around 30 knots. Severe thunderstorms will be possible with MUCAPE values around 2000 J/kg, however heavy rainfall will be the biggest threat this evening. Southeast prorogation of storms is expected to be quick around 30 knots, however flash flooding will be possible with the potential for 1-2 inches of rainfall per hour with these storms with PWATs just below 2 inches. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Heavy rain and flooding potential will continue through early Saturday as storms from Friday evening are expected to persist overnight, but are should clear out of the region to the southeast by the late morning hours. There is the possibility for a slight lull in precipitation Saturday afternoon, however this will be highly dependent on lingering outflow boundaries and the state of the environment following overnight storms. As this is uncertain at the time, NBM PoPs have been maintained this forecast package. The next round of showers and thunderstorms is expected Saturday through early Sunday. The deamplifying upper ridging will settle over central Texas while a shortwave trough translates through central Conus. Although upper levels will slightly change, the northwesterly subtropical jet will maintain over the region. Similar to Friday, predominately east to southeast surface winds will usher in surface moisture maintaining dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Showers and thunderstorms should develop over higher terrain in eastern New Mexico with the upslope surface flow and track into our region. Severe thunderstorms will be possible as soundings indicate MUCAPE up to 1500 J/kg and shear of 30 knots. However, the greatest threat will be heavy rainfall overnight Saturday through early Sunday with PWATs near 2 inches. Flash flooding will be possible as these storms will have the potential of producing 1-2 inches of rainfall per hour. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to maintain overnight through Sunday and continue through early next week. Storm total QPF for the weekend has increased from previous forecasts with some areas potentially seeing up to 4-5 inches over the weekend. Cooler temperatures will accompany the precipitation with highs in the 80s for much of the region through next week before gradually warming by mid-week. The upper high over southwestern CONUS will expand up the Rockies through early next week as upper troughing overtakes eastern CONUS again. Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail with this upper level change as well as maintain an upper jet overhead. Models indicate another front tracking through the region later next week bringing precipitation chances and cooler temperatures again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 IFR to MVFR ceilings at all three terminals will linger to late morning and early afternoon with VFR conditions likely developing and then lingering until TS arrival late evening to early morning hours Saturday. Have inserted TS mention in all three TAFs as confidence in timing of storms is increasing. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...07