948
FXUS64 KLUB 101124
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
524 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 520 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

 - Cooler and breezy today following a cold front.

 - Roller coaster temperatures are expected Thursday through this
   weekend.

 - Chilly weather is forecast Sunday following a strong cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Temps at 10 PM were hovering in the 50s over much of our area thanks
to steady WSW breezes and a smattering of high clouds. A surface
trough was creeping off the Caprock as SW winds veered more westerly
well in advance of a cold front plunging south from near I70 in ern
CO and nwrn KS. At its current pace, this front should enter our TX
Panhandle counties around 4 AM and exit our southern row of counties
by sunrise. Progged MSLP gains of 6-8 mb in 3-hr look hefty enough
to open a window of 25-35 mph gusts that gradually taper through the
morning as the gradient relaxes. NBM winds were upped accordingly
through the morning until a surface high arrives this afternoon with
surprisingly light winds of 10 mph or less. Even with some lingering
high clouds, high temps will still end up above our normals of the
low-to-mid 50s, but only 5 degrees or so compared to Tuesday`s 15-20
degree departures. Swift NW flow aloft will keep the surface high
moving out of the forecast area Wednesday night allowing a rapid
return to SW winds that should help keep lows from getting too cold.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

The forecast for the extended period remains on track, with a few
minor changes initiated for this package. At the beginning of the
period, the mid/upper-levels will remain amplified over North
America, with a broad, subtropical ridge shifting eastward towards
the Pacific Coast, while a longwave trough over the Appalachian
Mountains begins its exit into the North Atlantic. Northwesterly
flow will persist over the CWA as a result of the superposition of
these large-scale features and the strong subsidence layer over the
region. Boundary-layer mixing will be shallow owing to the steady
increase in theta-e with height; however, Thursday is slated to be
the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures nearly 15
degrees above seasonal norms. Multiple shorter-wave perturbations
translating through the core of the jet stream, which will be
displaced to the north of the CWA, will induce lee cyclogenesis in
the northern Great Plains and result in a gradual steepening of the
leeward pressure falls across W TX. Winds were raised from the NBM,
with breezy, west-southwesterly flow expected to develop by solar
noon. All in all, another breezy and dry day is on tap Thursday,
with high temperatures falling short of any prior records.

A heavily modified Arctic cold front is forecast to move through the
region Friday morning. While this front will be of true Arctic
origin, its axis of dilatation will have been long canted away from
the theta-e ridge centered in the southern Great Plains, such that
the CAA post-FROPA will be much less than what is normally expected
with an Arctic cold front. This a posteriori is related to the
displacement and orientation of the jet stream relative to the CWA
and the related shortwave trough(s) translating through the
amplified belt of northwesterly flow (e.g., ~130 kt at 300 mb) over
the Canadian Prairie and northern Great Plains. Highs were nudged a
few degrees cooler from the NBM due to the extensive CAA and
snowpack across the northern Great Plains, and are forecast to climb
into the lower-middle 60s despite the brisk, northeasterly winds
during the afternoon hours. Global NWP guidance has also converged
on its prior wide range in highs, yielding increased confidence in
the temperature forecast. Winds were also raised a few kt, as the
initial FROPA should result in an ephemeral spike in pressure
tendencies, with the veering winds diminishing by dusk Friday.

A brief period of return flow will develop once again Saturday
following the frontolysis of the Arctic cold front, with highs
essentially a carbon copy of Thursday amidst the southwesterly
breeze. Winds will continue to veer heading into the nighttime
hours, as another Arctic cold front surges southward across the
Great Plains. This front will be far from any frontolytic processes
as it moves through the region given that a particularly intense
shortwave trough will emerge over the Upper Midwest, with a surface
high between 1040-1044 mb rotating into the north-central Great
Plains by Sunday morning. Chilly temperatures are forecast Sunday,
and a decision was made to lower highs, with a 50-percent weight
applied to the NBM 25th percentile. Highs Sunday are forecast to
range from the middle 40s in the Rolling Plains to the lower 50s
across the Caprock beneath increasing cloud cover. Beyond Sunday,
global NWP guidance is suggesting a shortwave trough to translate
through the base of the amplified ridge over the Desert Southwest,
but the forecast remains dry with this prognostication.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

A cold front that has recently passed through the forecast area is
bringing gusty north-northeast winds that will decrease modestly
mid to late morning before diminishing late afternoon and veering
south as surface high pressure moves quickly to the east of the
area. VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...07