110
FXUS64 KLUB 141110
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
610 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue through the work week, with a
  very gradual cooling trend anticipated.

- Daily storm chances exist through the upcoming week, favoring
  areas on the Caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Current convective activity in eastern New Mexico is expected to
continue to wane over the next few hours. A repeat of early morning
activity is not expected early Monday morning. Although a strong low
level jet will be present, the lack of a low level boundary will
likely prevent any overnight development.

The upper level ridge currently centered over North Texas will
quickly move eastward through the day on Monday settling in the
southeastern CONUS by Monday evening. The initial position of the
ridge will advect the mid-level monsoon moisture plume northward
through the morning. However, the quick movement of the ridge to the
east will allow the moisture plume to advect back over the extreme
southwestern Texas Panhandle and western South Plains late Monday
afternoon. The combination of several factors will contribute to
isolated thunderstorm development over these areas late Monday
afternoon. Low level convergence will be present underneath this
moisture plume in vicinity of a weak surface pressure trough.
Additionally, a low level theta-e ridge will extend along this same
feature contributing to mixed layer instability values on the order
of 500-1000 J/kg. Thermodynamic profiles will largely be similar we
have seen the past few days. However, with slightly cooler surface
temperatures the dry sub-cloud layer will be smaller but still
likely enough to see strong wind gusts with any storms that develop.
As the ridge moves eastward, thickness values will tick down
slightly resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

This same pattern will continue through mid-week with daily chances
of convection favoring areas on the caprock. Tuesday evening into
the nighttime hours will see the highest chances of precipitation
through the week. This is mostly in part due to a cold front that
will be dropping south through the Texas Panhandle. This will create
an area of significant low level ascent beneath a moist mid-level
atmosphere. Areas on the caprock will see the highest chances of
convection with this area in closest proximity to the mid-level
moisture and low level ascent. Heavy rain may be the most
significant threat from this activity with precipitable water values
over the 95th percentile. The upper level ridge will begin to push
back west on Wednesday starting to advect the mid-level moisture
back to the north. As a result, convective chances will most likely
be limited to the western South Plains and extreme southwestern
Texas Panhandle again. Although the ridge will be moving back closer
to the region, temperatures will continue the downward trend with
the ridge weakening. Model guidance has not been consistent from
Friday and beyond. Current blends paint a broad precipitation
chances with flow aloft returning to the southwest and a few minor
short wave troughs potentially affecting the region. Additionally, a
cold front may be added into the mix sometime next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southerly
winds are expected to become breezy by 15Z at all terminals, with
speeds around 15-20G30KTs through much of the afternoon and
evening. Speeds will decrease slightly to around 10-15KTs after
sunset.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...12