383
FXUS64 KLUB 082305
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- Record high temperatures possible Wednesday before a slight cool
  down for Thursday.

- Chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms begins Wednesday
  and continue through Thursday.

- Precipitation chances and cooler temperatures possible early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Current mid-to-upper-level water vapor imagery shows upper ridging
spanning much of eastern CONUS. At the same time, an upper trough is
swinging across the northern Rockies. Hot temperatures are expected
to continue today and Wednesday. Forecast highs for both today and
Wednesday are upper 90s on the Caprock and lower triple digits off
the Caprock. Record breaking high of 103 degrees will be possible at
KCDS on Wednesday. The previous record high of 102 degrees was set
back in 1945. The rest of the late afternoon and evening will be
quiet with light south to southeasterly winds. Quiet conditions
continue overnight with lows in the mid 60s across much of the
Caprock up to upper 70s across southern Rolling Plains. Winds will
shift back to the southwest through the overnight hours in response
to a surface low just northwest of the forecast area.

Precipitation chances return Wednesday afternoon and evening. A weak
frontal boundary is expected to push south across the Texas
Panhandle Wednesday afternoon. Slight convergence along the front
and a moist air mass filling in behind the boundary will make storm
development possible. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop along and just behind the boundary. However,
with current CAMs in disagreement, uncertainty remains in the timing
of the front as well as how far south the boundary makes it into our
forecast area. Some CAMs show the boundary reaching the far southern
Texas Panhandle as early as midday while others have it reaching
right before sunset. If the frontal boundary does make it to our
CWA, any storms that develop are expected to be sub-severe. However,
could see some gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Depending on the location of the frontal boundary from Wednesday,
precipitation chances could continue into Thursday. Models indicate
the boundary will push farther through the forecast area through the
day Tuesday bringing widespread chances for storms. Similar to
Wednesday, severe thunderstorms are not expected Thursday. With
precipitation chances and mostly cloudy skies through the day,
temperatures will slighlty cool to the lower 90s across much of the
region. Areas across the southern Rolling Plains will see highs in
the upper 90s. Sadly, temperatures warm back up to the upper 90s and
lower triple digits over the weekend. The persistent upper ridging
will retreat west through the latter half of the week. Precipitation
chances return midway through the weekend and continue through early
next week as the upper ridging parks over the Desert Southwest
bringing northwesterly flow aloft. Daily precipitation chances will
slightly cool temperatures early next week back to the 90s across
the region. Some lucky areas on the Caprock may see highs in the
upper 80s!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR is expected through the TAF period. Southerly winds could
occasionally gust to 15kt or so.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01