819
FNUS74 KLUB 171334
FWSLUB

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Chainey Mountain...CS Dispatch TX A&M FS
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
834 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 CDT on May 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

If you have questions or concerns with this forecast,
please contact our office at (806) 745-4926.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
Winds were prevailing from the south between 10-15 mph (including gusts)
as of 820 AM CDT, with RH near 70 percent and steadily falling per the
West Texas Mesonet near Northfield. Similar to yesterday, the dryline is
currently near the NM state line and will move into the Rolling Plains and
stall along the edge of the Caprock by the mid-afternoon hours. Therefore,
winds are expected to prevail out of the south throughout the entire day.
Hot surface temperatures near 100 degrees are expected this afternoon, so
while the dryline will be west of the fire(s), RH will fall to near 23-25
percent and remain above 20 percent this afternoon. Wind speeds will peak
in concert with the lowest RH values, with southerly winds between 20-30
mph and gusts potentially up to 40 mph at the 20 foot level. Isolated
thunderstorms, some severe, may develop after 3 PM CDT. Should storms
form, then there will be a risk for wind gusts in excess of 60 mph which
would result in sudden and erratic changes in wind direction. Cloud-to-
ground lightning would be a threat as well. Storm chances of any kind
will end after dark. The dryline will retreat westward as the sun begins
to set, with southerly winds remaining breezy overnight and excellent RH
recovery to near 80 by dawn Monday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 20 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 97.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 17 to 23 mph with gusts to around
                    36 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........13     6      3      14     19
Weather cov.....                            S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC
CWR.............0      0      0      0      20
Temp............76     87     92     94     96
RH..............66     45     32     27     23
20 ft wind......S 17   S 20   S 18   S 21   S 23
20 ft wind gust.28     31     29     32     36

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................20 percent decreasing to 0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 71.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 17 to 24 mph. Gusts up to 37 mph in
                    the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........24     29     15     11     7      10
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............20     20     10     10     0      0
Temp............94     92     85     80     79     75
RH..............23     23     29     42     54     69
20 ft wind......S 24   S 22   S 17   S 17   S 17   S 17
20 ft wind gust.37     33     28     25     25     25

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 20 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 101.
Min humidity........7 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. South winds 16 to 25 mph. Gusts up to
                    40 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........25     15     16     9      10     1
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............0      10     10     10     20     20
Temp............73     75     84     91     97     100
RH..............76     74     55     33     17     9
20 ft wind......S 16   S 17   S 21   S 23   S 22   S 24
20 ft wind gust.24     28     32     36     35     39

$$
Forecaster...SINCAVAGE
Requested by...Rachael Haver
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613865.0/LUB
.DELDT 05/17/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL csdispatch@tfs.tamu.edu