201
FXUS61 KLWX 032001
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
301 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build overhead today and tomorrow, ahead
of a weak warm front lifting through the forecast area on Wednesday.
High pressure returns for thursday before a low pressure system and
associated fronts impact the are Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure builds over the SE CONUS this afternoon as a weak,
moisture starved cold front pushes across the forecast area
overnight. Dry conditions continue through the overnight, with
northwest winds blowing 5 to 10 knots. High temperatures this
afternoon will rise into the 60s for most with those at higher
elevations staying in the 50s. Clear skies are expected
overnight with low temperatures dropping into the 30s and 40s
across the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions continue Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
builds overhead. In the wake of a weak cold front, temperatures
on Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler with highs in the 50s to
low 60s. Winds remain out of the northwest, blowing 5 to 10
knots and gusting 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Overnight low
temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 30s for most with only
those in the valleys and metro areas staying in the low 40s.

On Wednesday, a surface low pressure system tracks across the
Great Lakes with the associated warm front lifting north through
the forecast area throughout the day. This will yield breezy
conditions with southwest winds blowing 10 to 15 knots and
gusting 20 to 25 knots. Along the Alleghenies, wind gusts 25 to
25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots possible. Continuing dry
conditions leading to dry fuels combined with a dry air mass
yielding low RH values, conditions will raise concerns for fire
weather. Will continue to monitor at this point.

As winds turn more southerly and a warm front moves through,
temperatures warm a few degrees compared to Tuesday with highs
in the 60s to mid 70s. Higher elevations will stay in the upper
50s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 40s for most with
those in the Alleghenies dipping into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Behind this system, another dry day can be expected Thursday under
the influence of high pressure. Expect temperatures to come back
down to the upper 50s to low 60s (mid 40s to low 50s in the
mountains). We will remain pretty dry, so there is a small mention
in the fire weather discussion below.

By Friday, a more substantial upper trough starts to dig towards the
Ohio Valley as high pressure retreats offshore. A stronger frontal
passage is expected to approach late Friday into Saturday, but exact
timing still needs to be worked out as we get closer in time. At
first glance, this system seems like it should be better connected
to moisture coming out of the Gulf of America, and thus should
result in some rain across the region. However, at this stage, am
still seeing some signals in guidance that areas further east may
struggle to get much moisture out of this. So, while POPs are likely
area-wide, the amount of QPF received is still very much up in the
air at this point. Any shift in the surface and upper-level features
at play could yield very different results.

A reinforcing cold front, which is most likely going to be dry, will
push through on Sunday. This will usher in much cooler air going
into next week, perhaps the coolest we have seen so far this
fall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected this afternoon through Wednesday as
high pressure builds overhead. A weak , moisture starved cold
front moves through tonight ahead of another dry warm front
lifting through the terminals on Wednesday.

Northwest winds blow 5 to 10 knots this afternoon with gust 15
to 20 knots possible through the overnight as the front moves
through. Winds remain out of the northwest on Tuesday, gusting
15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Winds shift to southwesterly on
Wednesday and increase to blowing between 10 and 15 knots across
all terminals. Winds are expected to gust 20 to 30 knots
Wednesday afternoon.

VFR conditions are expected on Thursday as high pressure pushes
through the area. Rain chances return for the second half of Friday
which may support some restrictions at times. Expect northwesterly
winds on Thursday before turning southerly ahead of the next cold
front by Friday. As this occurs, gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Dry conditions are expected across the waters this afternoon
through Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect
beginning this evening as a cold front approaches the waters.
Winds drop below SCA criteria Tuesday night before increasing
again on Wednesday. Southwest winds gust 20 to 30 knots across
the waters on Wednesday with Small Craft Advisories likely.

Winds diminish on Thursday with northwest winds dropping below
criteria Thursday night. Southerly winds gust 20 to 30 knots on
Friday with additional advisories likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will push through tonight, but will likely be dry east
of the Appalachians. Relative humidity values likely fall into the
20 to 35 percent range Tuesday afternoon, though by that time wind
gusts should generally be 15 to 20 mph and somewhat intermittent.
Regardless, elevated fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday
given long term dryness.

A very dry air mass will move into the region as high pressure moves
directly overhead. A strong thermal belt is likely to develop over
the higher elevations, leading to very poor overnight recoveries on
Wednesday morning in the midslopes and on the ridgetops. Some sites
may not recover above 40 percent, and some guidance even shows
substantially lower recoveries. This dry air mixes down area-wide
during the afternoon, and will come with increased winds out of the
southwest. Wind gusts are expected to be around 20-30 mph, with
isolated gusts close to 40 on the ridges. This, paired with
afternoon RH values into the upper 20s to low 30s and increasingly
dry fuels could lead to a more notable threat for the spread of
wildfires on Wednesday.

Another day of low RH expected on Thursday, but winds will be on the
decrease throughout the day. So, the wind and RH may not line up at
the right time to yield a substantial threat for the spread of
wildfires.

A cold front will approach the region Friday before moving through
Friday night into Saturday. RH values increase ahead of this, and
wetting rains are becoming increasingly likely.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...AVS/BRO
MARINE...AVS
FIRE WEATHER...CJL