457
FXUS61 KLWX 120055
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
855 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low near the Carolina Coast will move northward the
remainder of the weekend. This low, along with upper energy from
the west, will move out to sea early next week. A second area of
high pressure will build into the region toward the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
KLWX radar loop as of 9PM shows rain showers moving across the
northeastern portions of the forecast area, mainly along the
I-95 corridor eastward. On and off rain showers will move
through the forecast area tonight. Additionally, winds will
gradually increase overnight gusting 15 to 20 knots after
midnight. No changes were made to the forecast with the previous
discussion below.

A coastal low pressure system offshore of South Carolina will
intensify and move north along the Southeast U.S. Coast through
tonight. High pressure offshore New England will interact with
this coastal low to cause an increase in northeast winds. A
trough of low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and southern
Ontario will move southeastward through tonight. A couple of
showers will develop along the mid-Atlantic Coast and move
inland in a northwest direction late this afternoon through
tonight. Rain amounts will be light and be mainly focused across
southern Maryland, the I-95 corridor, and perhaps to the Blue
Ridge Mountains through tonight. Perhaps by late tonight and
early Sunday, the showers will become more widespread and
heavier in bands over the same areas. Low temperatures tonight
will not be cold as the past two nights due to cloud cover,
precipitation, and the mixing of the atmosphere from the
increasing northeast winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
During the day on Sunday, the coastal low will move northward
over or near the Outer Banks and into the nearshore waters of
the Virginia Tidewater and Delmarva Peninsula. The coastal low
will interact with a cut-off mid-level low approaching from the
northwest to create one broad area of low pressure midday Sunday
through Sunday night. As this interaction takes place, the high
pressure to the northeast will continue to interact with the
complex low pressure system to produce persistent gusty
northeast winds and bands of moderate to perhaps heavy periods
of rain. The uncertainty lies within the multiple interactions
between the lows and between the lows and the high. The
uncertainty is how much rain will fall and to what extent to the
west will the appreciable rain reach in our region. There is
likely to be a lull in some places of the eastern half of our
region in which very little rain falls. Northeast winds will
become more northerly late Sunday into Sunday night as the
complex low pressure system moves to our east then to our
northeast. Winds could gust 25 to 35 mph and up to 40 mph along
the immediate Western Shore of the Chesapeake. Lighter winds
expected further to the west, but still breezy. Rainfall totals
are expected to be one-half to three-quarters of an inch, while
rain totals could be 1 to 1.50 inches along and east of I-95.
Overall, the trend in rain amounts and wind gusts has been
decreasing over the past day or two. High temperatures on Sunday
will struggle to reach the lower to middle 60s.

Computer model trends show the coastal/complex low pressure
system nearly stationary offshore Delmarva Peninsula Monday into
Monday evening, before dropping faster to the southeast and out
to sea Monday night and Tuesday. Rain showers wane west to east
Monday into Monday night and winds diminish Monday night into
Tuesday. High temperatures will be cool on Monday with
temperatures reaching the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Model consensus has trended a little quicker with pushing the
coastal low away from our region, so have bumped down POPs on
Tuesday and kept the area dry all day. Some high clouds likely
remain for the first half of the day before pulling off towards the
east by the afternoon. High pressure will then begin to build
towards the region. High temperatures will reach the 60s to low 70s
(low 60s in the mountains).

Aloft, a strong upper trough remain over the northeast CONUS through
the end of the week. A very strong piece of shortwave energy will
dive south through our region, pushing a pretty decent cold front
through the region, albeit dry in nature. Again, expect temperatures
in the mid-upper 60s to low 70s (low 60s in the mountains), but
cooler air will be ushered in for the overnight into Thursday. Dry
conditions will continue Thursday, with high temperatures in the low
60s for most (50s in the mountains).

Dry conditions continue once again on Friday as high pressure
remains in control of the weather pattern. As the aforementioned
trough finally starts to shift towards the east, mid-level height
rises will allow for slightly warmer temperatures Friday compared to
Thursday. Expect highs about two to four degrees warmer across the
board.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A coastal low will move northward through early Monday to the
nearshore waters of the Delmarva, before diving away from the
coast to the southeast Monday night and Tuesday. East to
northeast winds will bring in lower clouds to produce MVFR CIGs
at all terminals east of the Blue Ridge. Conditions worsen
tonight into Sunday as IFR CIGs and steady showers develop at
most terminals. These sub- VFR conditions are likely to continue
through Monday night.

Breezy northeast winds are likely Sunday into Sunday night, with
sustained winds around 15-20 knots and gusts around 25-35 knots.
Some terminals could gust up to 40 knots at times.

The coastal low meanders off the Delmarva coast Monday, though winds
will back to northwest and remain breezy. Gusts Monday are forecast
to be around 20-30 knots, with showers still in the area. It is
quite possible that very low CIGs (IFR to LIFR conditions)
overspread the area at some point Sunday into Monday.

Clearing skies are expected Tuesday and will continue into
Wednesday, leading to VFR conditions at all terminals. Winds will be
out of the N to NW during the daytime hours, with gusts up to 15 to
20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
A coastal low will a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions.
Small Craft Advisories with east to northeast winds gusting around
20-25 knots.

As the coastal low strengthens and moves up the East Coast, the
pressure gradient over the area is going to tighten, resulting in
increasing winds. Gale conditions are expected for most of Sunday
into Sunday night, with a second period of gales possible in the
middle to lower Chesapeake Bay on Monday. Frequent gusts of 40-45
knots are likely across the waters Sunday. After that, SCA
conditions will continue through Monday night.

While the coastal low will be well offshore by Tuesday, the pressure
gradient over the region, paired with favorable northerly channeling
flow will lead to high-end SCA conditions. Winds will be out of the
north, gusting in the 25-30 knot range, with waves still around 3 to
5 feet over the wider waters of the Chesapeake Bay.

By Wednesday, winds turn a bit more NW and begin to taper off as the
pressure gradient weakens over the region. However, do still expect
frequent gusts up to 20 knots, at least for much of the day, so SCAs
remain likely during this period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The tide forecast continues to be challenging this weekend into
early next week as a coastal low strengthens on its path up the East
Coast. As the low approaches the area, its storm surge along with
the strong northeast winds will push water up the bay, then that
water likely remains trapped there as the low sits offshore through
Monday. Minor flooding will continue at some locations through the
night due to king tides, although the main storm surge will arrive
Sunday.

Overall, STOFS and ETSS forecasts have trended down slightly,
although other guidance maintains a higher surge. In addition to the
wide range of model outcomes, there may be a tight gradient of water
levels when winds increase Sunday, as water is pushed out of the
northern part of the bay, but piles up in the southern half (along
with the Potomac). This gradient will make the difference as to
whether a location like Annapolis sees near moderate flooding or no
flooding at all Sunday evening. Due to these fluctuating forecasts,
have left previously issued headlines in place (including Watches),
but some eventual changes or cancellations may be necessary.

On the back end of this system, strong N/NW winds are forecast to
push tides out rapidly, potentially leading to blowout conditions.
The latest guidance is less suggestive of this outcome however, with
high waters levels potentially sloshing back northward and leading
to additional minor flooding through midweek.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ008.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday
     night for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for
     MDZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ017.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for MDZ017.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Sunday
     night for MDZ018.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for
     VAZ057.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT
     Monday for VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ530-531-538-
     539.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ530-
     531-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     ANZ534-537-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...AVS/KLW/KRR
SHORT TERM...KLW/KRR
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...KLW/CJL
MARINE...KLW/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS