897
FXUS61 KLWX 291845
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
245 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly drift north and northeast of the area this
weekend through the middle of next week. Upper-level disturbances
may bring a few showers to the Allegheny Mountains at times, but
most of the area will remain dry with below normal temperatures.
The next frontal system may bring higher rain chances toward the end
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front will move offshore this evening. Northwest winds are
expected to diminish as high pressure quickly builds into the area.
However, the center of the high will remain to the west. High level
clouds may increase tonight as a jet streak passes within the
longwave trough aloft. Those clouds, plus the fact the surface high
is still lagging to the northwest, may mean temperatures don`t
plummet too quickly. Even so, temperatures trend downward for most
areas compared to this morning, with readings in the 40s and 50s.
Some higher elevation valleys could drop into the 30s if low clouds
don`t develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Longwave troughing will encompass the eastern CONUS through the
weekend while surface high pressure inches eastward across the Great
Lakes region. Remaining high level clouds likely clear out Saturday.
A more prominent shortwave trough will pivot across the area Sunday
which may increase clouds. Moisture will pool in an inverted trough
along the Appalachians, so a few showers and thunderstorms are
possible in the southwestern corner of the CWA, especially during
the afternoon hours. Most locations remain dry, though.

Temperatures remain consistently below normal through the weekend.
Highs will largely be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There is good model consensus that broad troughing persist for most
of next week across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and into the
Northeast. Surface high pressure over NY to Southern New England at
the start of next week will shift offshore mid to late in the week.
Dry conditions persist through at least Wednesday, with below normal
highs in the 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s.

The main feature to watch is going to be a potent trough and
associated cold front that make their through our area sometime on
Thursday. The ECMWF and GFS both show a neutral to negatively
tilted trough digging over the central Appalachains. Additionally,
models indicate an area of surface low pressure could quickly deepen
as it tracks along the Mid-Atlantic coast. If enough instability and
moisture are in place, there could certainly be strong to severe
thunderstorms. Uncertainty is high regarding at this time, but
this bears watching after weeks of mostly benign weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build north of the area through the weekend.
VFR conditions are most likely with any minimal shower potential and
lower ceilings likely confined closer to the Appalachians.
Will have to monitor for potential nighttime low clouds and fog near
CHO and MRB though. Light N to NE winds are expected.

VFR conditions are expected to persist for the start of next week
with high pressure to the north.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly channeling may result in near SCA level gusts tonight, but
it may be marginal/brief in nature. Otherwise, high pressure will
start building north of the area over the weekend. Weaker pressure
gradients should keeps winds less than advisory criteria as they
shift to northerly Saturday and northeasterly or easterly Sunday.

High pressure lingers over southern New England into NY for the
start of next week. This will mostly keep winds below SCA levels in
the Chesapeake Bay and other local waters. The pressure gradient on
the southern periphery of the ridge could strengthen Monday night
into Tuesday morning, and this could bring winds closer to SCA
levels.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>532-535-538>540.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...DHOF/KRR
MARINE...DHOF/KRR