437
FXUS61 KLWX 161845
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
245 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift into the area Tuesday and Wednesday allowing
temperatures to rebound while keeping a daily chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday into
Friday as a strong cold front crosses the region. High pressure
returns this weekend with hot and dry conditions expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Drizzle to light rain continues to persist across northeast MD and
parts of the DC Metro this afternoon, with scattered to widespread
showers moving into the Alleghenies early this afternoon. No change
in the location of the stalled frontal boundary, still draped across
the Alleghenies to southern VA along the NC/VA border. As such, we
will keep the cloudy skies through tonight. Temps have just about
reached their peak this afternoon in the mid to upper 60s, with low
70s in parts of Central VA and the Alleghenies.

The convective showers in the Alleghenies won`t make much eastward
push given the stable conditions along/east of I-81. As a result,
these should transition to a light rain late afternoon to this
evening.

A Flood Watch continues for the Alleghenies, though recent radar
trends have been positive somewhat positive in mitigating the flood
threat out there. There is a bit more storm motion noted in recent
shower activity, and the showers are not as heavy as recent days.
Still, efficient warm cloud processes and very saturated grounds
will favor some localized flash flood potential in the terrain if a
heavy shower/thunderstorm persists. Localized rainfall amounts of 1-
2" are still possible.

A lull in precipitation this evening is followed by additional light
rain to drizzle tonight, with some patchy fog possible. Remaining
mild in the 60s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The stalled frontal boundary south of the area is finally forecast
to lift north as a warm front Tuesday morning, then pushing just
north of the area Tuesday afternoon. A subtle upper level trough
will approach from the Ohio Valley Tuesday, then cross the area on
Wednesday. Still, we remain in a moist and unstable airmass south of
the warm front through Wednesday. This is going to fuel daily
showers and thunderstorms, especially on Wednesday when the upper
trough swings through.

The risk for severe weather is low, though non-zero as SPC maintains
a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out 5) over portions of the Alleghenies and
Shenandoah Valley/central Piedmont region for Tuesday. Damaging
winds look to be the main threat with storms along with localized
flash flooding. Storms should be fairly progressive, but given the
antecedent conditions and moist atmosphere at play localized
instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out. For Wednesday, the
severe threat looks limited, but depending on the coverage of
showers and thunderstorms there could be a lingering flood threat
for parts of the area.

After several days of well below normal temps we finally return to
normal for mid June as highs reach the mid/upper 80s Tuesday, then
upper 80s to low 90s on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night fall back to
the upper 60s and low 70s. Fog may be possible during the overnight
hours given the very moist airmass overhead and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level trough pivoting across the Great Lakes region will
push a potent cold front through the forecast area on Thursday. As
high temperatures rise into the low 90s Thursday afternoon,
instability increases ahead of the front with showers and
thunderstorms expected. Steep low-level lapse rates (7+ C/Km)
combined with moderate bulk shear (30-50 kts) lead to some storms
being strong to severe. With any severe convection, damaging wind
gusts will be the main hazard type. The storm prediction center has
the forecast area east of the Allegheny front in a 15% risk for
severe weather on Thursday. We will continue to monitor this threat
as it gets closer. In the wake of the frontal passage, overnight low
temperatures will be in the 60s for most.

Surface high pressure builds overhead Friday through the weekend
with primarily dry conditions expected each day. High temperatures
on Friday will be in the 80s for most with higher elevations staying
in the mid to upper 70s. Temperatures gradually warm each day under
high pressure with highs on Sunday expected to be in the mid 90s. In
addition to warm temperatures, dew points will be in low 70s with
apparent temperatures nearing and exceeding 100 degrees
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread MVFR to IFR CIGs are expected to continue through Tuesday
morning across the area. Periods of LIFR CIGs are possible late
tonight, especially as light drizzle drops visibility to around 2-
3SM. Conditions are expected to improve by early Tuesday afternoon
when a warm front lifts north through the area.

While VFR conditions return, there could be another round of showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday late afternoon to evening. These storms
could bring brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. Another round of
afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Wednesday. Outside of this activity, VFR conditions are likely to
prevail through mid week.

Sub-VFR conditions are likely as showers and thunderstorms impact
the terminals Thursday afternoon. Reduced CIGs and VSBYs are
possible as well as gusty winds. Southwest winds Thursday morning
shift to west/northwest behind a cold front moving through the Mid-
Atlantic. Winds remain out of the west on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are forecast to remain below SCA levels through the middle of
the week. Though, cannot rule out a few hours each morning of winds
occasionally gusting to around 20 knots. A stalled front south of
the region will lift north as a warm front on Tuesday. Winds could
reach near-SCA levels Wednesday night, mostly in the middle
Chesapeake Bay.

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move across the
waters Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon/evening. These storms likely
will pose a threat to mariners from gusty winds and lightning
strikes. Thunderstorm activity could linger late in the evening each
day.

Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible on Thursday as winds
gust between 15 and 20 knots. As a cold front approaches and moves
across the waters, SMWS are possible during thunderstorms. Winds are
expected to remain below SCA criteria on Friday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ503-504.
WV...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ501>503-505-506.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR/EST
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...KRR/AVS
MARINE...KRR/EST