698
FXUS61 KLWX 030100
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
900 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold front and showers making their way through the area this
evening. Removed mention of thunderstorms from the forecast,
otherwise no significant changes made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A stalling cold front may bring rain at times today through
  Sunday.

- 2) First widespread frost and freeze potential west of the Blue
  Ridge early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A stalling cold front may bring rain at times
today through Sunday.

A prefrontal trough ahead of the main airmass change associated
with the approaching cold front has kicked off scattered
showers. These were most noticeable east of the Blue Ridge where
slightly higher instability was present. This activity continues
moving south/east this evening, eventually exiting the area by
11pm or so. Overrunning light showers linger, but not expecting
much from these as dry surface air is now filtering into the
area. Dew points have dropped to 60F at CBE and HGR as of 9PM,
though everywhere else has dew points around 70F. Conditions dry
out for most overnight as the dry air pushes south. Not much of
a temperature change as lows settle in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Strong high pressure will pass north of the area Saturday while
the front stalls just to our south. Southern stream moisture
will likely overrun the boundary fairly far to the north, but
there remains some uncertainty in the dividing line between rain
and no rain. The trend has been for a further north track, so
have shifted rain chances about 20 to 30 miles north with the
latest forecast package.

A wave of low pressure will ride along this stalled boundary
Saturday night into Sunday, and this may provide a higher chance
of some heavier rain spreading northward into the area. The
Weather Prediction Center does have our eastern areas in a
Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook, and this seems plausible
given the potential for a surge of 2"+ PWATs. Rain that does
occur will likely exit the area Sunday evening.

Being north of the boundary and potentially having a lot of
cloud cover, high temperatures will likely remain in the 60s for
most areas over the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2...First widespread frost and freeze potential west of
the Blue Ridge early next week.

A distinct pattern shift unfolds into the first full week of
October. A highly amplified trough characterized by mid-level
heights around 531-dm is expected to cross through Quebec and New
Brunswick on Monday. While the core of the forcing remains across
New England and points northward, the main impact will come with the
cold air arriving in the wake of this trough. A robust area of
Canadian high pressure moves into the area Monday night through mid-
week. Consequently, this is forecast to bring a true autumnal feel
to the air with daily temperatures well below average. For Tuesday
and Wednesday, forecast highs will generally range from the upper
50s to 60s, with mountain locales mainly in the 50s. Looking at
overnight conditions, the dry nature of the air mass allows
temperatures to plummet at night. Areas west of the Blue Ridge can
expect widespread mid/upper 30s on Monday and Tuesday nights. This
will also include some pockets of upper 20s to near the freezing
mark. Given the growing season continues across the region, there
will be a threat of some frost/freeze conditions both of those
nights. For those with sensitive outdoor vegetation, plans should be
made to ensure their safety in these conditions.

Although Canadian high pressure moves off the coast toward the
mid/late week period, the overall pattern will remain dry throughout
next week. Temperatures slowly rebound through the week as forecast
highs return to the low/mid 70s. Nighttime lows remain chilly, but
the threat for frost/freeze conditions should diminish beyond
Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front is moving through the area, and should push south
of all terminals overnight. The exception is at CHO where MVFR
CIGs and some mist is likely tonight.

The front will stall to the south over the weekend, but its
position remains uncertain. Rain chances have increased area-
wide on Saturday as the stalled front is trending a bit further
north. Some heavier rain could move north into most areas by
Sunday morning as an area of low pressure develops along the
front.

Any sub-VFR conditions would likely be limited to CHO Saturday,
but could spread northward Sunday.

The presence of Canadian high pressure will ensure VFR conditions
across all terminals during the early/mid week period. Expect
northwesterly winds on Monday with gusts around 15 to 20 knots. As
high pressure crosses the region, winds shift to northerly by
Tuesday before shifting to south-southeasterly by mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will then push southward tonight, brining a surge
of gusty northerly winds. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
for this threat through early Saturday afternoon.

After that, winds may be relatively lighter until a second cold
front pushes through on Monday.

Behind a cold front, northwesterly winds will increase throughout
Monday evening into early Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories are likely
going to be needed during this uptick in the winds. As Canadian high
pressure moves in, wind speeds begin to drop off thereafter.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A cold front pushes through tonight, and will lead to declining
water levels over at least the next 24 to 36 hours.

Another tidal surge is possible going into early next week ahead
of the next frontal system. Lots of uncertainty at this time,
but some minor tidal flooding looks possible.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/CJL/KRR
AVIATION...BRO/CJL/KRR
MARINE...BRO/CJL