445
FXUS61 KLWX 012320
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
720 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the waters around
southern to central Maryland overnight into Friday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A stalling cold front may bring rain at times from Friday
  through Sunday.

- 2) First widespread frost and freeze potential west of the
  Blue Ridge early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A stalling cold front may bring rain at times
from Friday through Sunday.

A cold front will approach from the northwest late Friday
afternoon into Friday evening before eventually pushing south
of the area Friday night. Showers will likely reach western Maryland
by the afternoon, progressing southeastward during the evening and
into the night. Despite the warm temperatures, poor lapse rates
aloft will limit instability, so few if any thunderstorms are
expected. A westerly component to the flow could also result in
downslope drying, and many models show showers becoming more
scattered in nature with eastward extent. Rainfall amounts with this
round will likely be less than a quarter inch for most locations.

Strong high pressure will pass north of the area Saturday while
the front stalls across the southeastern states. Southern stream
moisture will likely overrun the boundary fairly far to the
north, but there remains some uncertainty in the dividing line
between rain and no rain. Overall, Saturday probably has a
better chance of being dry, especially the further north you go
with strong high pressure set up to the north.

A wave of low pressure will likely ride along the boundary
Saturday night into Sunday, and this may provide a higher chance
of rain spreading northward into the area. Latest guidance has
maintained a northward shift with rainfall coverage during this
period. In the end, the details are far from solidified. However,
any rain that does occur will likely exit the area Sunday evening.

Being north of the boundary and potentially having a lot of
cloud cover, high temperatures will likely remain in the 60s for
most areas over the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2... First widespread frost and freeze potential west of
the Blue Ridge early next week.

The true Fall feel sets in next week with highs and lows near to
below normal. Monday will feature broad 1025-1028 mb high pressure
building east from the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes behind a
departing upper trof/secondary cold front exiting the Mid-Atlantic
coast. The frontal passage itself appears mostly dry with perhaps a
lingering shower/sprinkle if any moisture is leftover. Breezy west
to northwest winds will accompany the front with gusts 20-30 mph and
high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s (upper 50s mountains).

High pressure moves overhead Monday night into Tuesday allowing the
winds to lighten and skies to clear. This will yield a prime
radiational cooling setup, especially west of the Blue Ridge where
widespread frost and freeze conditions are possible. Of particular
concern is the high elevations and sheltered valleys (cold sinks)
which could drop down to around freezing. Elsewhere, expect lows in
the upper 30s to mid 40s. Locations near the water will be in the
low 50s. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday night with
widespread mid to upper 30s west of the Blue Ridge and north/west of
the I-95 metro areas. These chilly conditions (concern for frost)
are roughly 1 to 2 weeks earlier than average.

Outside of the frost and freeze potential, dry conditions will
prevail for much of the week with broad high pressure overhead. A
cold front looks to cross the region Thursday into Friday, perhaps
bringing a few showers to the mountains. Otherwise, another large
area of high pressure returns for the weekend with warming
temperatures heading into the following workweek. Highs Tuesday
through Wednesday will likely be in the 60s (50s mountains), with
lows in the 40s to near 50 (30s mountains). Thursday and Friday,
highs warm back into the upper 60s to mid 70s (low 60s mountains)
with lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through midday Friday with light
southerly winds. Some marginal LLWS is possible overnight.

A cold front will enter the area late Friday afternoon or
evening. Some showers are possible along the front, but they
will likely be fairly light. A brief period of MVFR conditions
is possible Friday night.

The front will stall to the south over the weekend, but its
position remains uncertain. Saturday has the greater chance of
being dry, with a wave of low pressure potentially bringing rain
on Sunday. Any sub-VFR conditions would likely be limited to CHO
Saturday, but could spread northward Sunday.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail Monday through Thursday,
although river valley fog is possible each morning. Winds will be
out of the north and northwest Monday with gusts around 20 to 25
kts. North to northwesterly winds continue Tuesday before shifting
to the south Wednesday into Thursday. Speeds drop below 15 kts
during this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will uptick a little through Friday. A Small
Craft Advisory has been issued for the waters surrounding
southern to central Maryland through early Friday morning.

A cold front will push southward Friday night, with advisories
possible in the ensuing northerly flow through parts of
Saturday. After that, winds may be relatively lighter until a
second cold front pushes through on Monday.

High end SCA conditions are possible Monday into Tuesday in the wake
of a departing cold frontal boundary. Northerly winds will gust 25
to 30 kts before dropping off Tuesday morning. A few gusts near gale
force are possible if the stronger solutions verify. Sub-SCA
conditions are expected under high pressure Tuesday afternoon
through Thursday. Winds will switch from the north back to the south
by the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Some uncertainty continues to exist through Friday as tide
levels remain elevated and subtly fluctuating. These small
changes will make the difference in whether there is additional
minor flooding. Alexandria, Dahlgren, Annapolis, and Havre de Grace
have the greatest chance of reaching flood stage. An advisory has
been issued for Annapolis where confidence is highest, but Havre
de Grace may be very close later tonight, as well. The evening
high tides are favored for any flooding since they are
astronomically higher. A cold frontal passage should lead to
declining water levels Friday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ532>534-536-537-540>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/CJL/EST
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL/EST
MARINE...DHOF/CJL/EST