505
FXUS61 KLWX 260112
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
912 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have increased the sky cover forecast for along and east of I-95
given current satellite trends. Additionally, with the westward
shift in the precipitation forecast, measurable rainfall chances
have been raised for the second half of Saturday. For the tidal
forecast, outside of Dahlgren, water levels have been a bit
lower than anticipated. Tidal flooding does appear likely where
Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A Nor`easter brings below normal temperatures, breezy
  conditions, and some rain at times through this weekend.

- 2) Warm and calm conditions next week before rainfall chances
  return by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A Nor`easter brings below normal temperatures,
breezy conditions, and some rain at times through this weekend.

The center of the circulation of the Nor`easter remains well off
the Delmarva coast this evening. Despite its offshore position,
the western edge of the high cirrus shield continues to pivot
slowly toward the west in time. Aside from that, the atmospheric
profile is quite dry owing to the prevailing northerly winds in
the column. With the loss of daytime heating, most locations
have seen the breezy factor to the winds dropping off after
dark. Tonight`s lows will eventually fall into the 50s east of
the Blue Ridge, with mainly mid/upper 40s off to the west. The
one exception would be the Alleghenies which could fall into the
low 40s.

Global models have come into much better agreement with respect
to the track of the Nor`easter with rain becoming increasingly
likely Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Have confidence that the
rain will reach as far west as the Blue Ridge Mountains and
even portions of I-81 Saturday night. Quarter to half inch of
rain expected for areas east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and an
inch or more for areas east of I-95, particularly over northeast
Maryland. Rainfall rates will be light to moderate since
instability will not be a concern. As for winds, wind gusts to
around 30 mph are expected, perhaps as high as 35 mph along the
western shore of the Chesapeake Bay. Nor`easter will begin to
exit the area Sunday night with rain chances diminishing,
although clouds will likely persist into Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm and calm conditions next week before
rainfall chances return by late next week.

As this weekend`s Nor`easter slowly pushes offshore early next week,
cloud cover and potential for showers diminish. High pressure builds
in overhead briefly behind the departing Nor`easter bringing dry
conditions to begin next week. A gradual warming trend is expected
as highs go from low to mid 70s on Monday to around 80F Wednesday
and Thursday. Mid-level ridging might develop across much of the
eastern CONUS at some point during the middle to late next week.
There`s still a lot of variance in the model guidance, but if that
were to happen we could see highs reach well into the 80s at some
point.

The next best chance for rain looks to be at the end of next week
when a stronger cold front approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The main impacts will be the gusty N or NNW winds up to 25 kt
Saturday. Winds should start gradually diminishing Sat night
into Sunday, but still a little breezy. Rain is looking likely
at all airports, except KCHO, starting Saturday afternoon and
continuing into Sunday.

On Monday, VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through
the middle of next week. Northeasterly winds persist, but reduce in
magnitude sometime on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As the Nor`easter churns offshore of the Delmarva coast, winds
are expected to strengthen tonight through Saturday with gale
force winds likely south of Pooles Island.

Northerly winds continue to weaken below SCA criteria on Monday and
into the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding will continue for one or two more high
tide cycles for Anne Arundel, Calvert, and Alexandria, but as
winds strengthen from the N expect blowout tides through the
weekend at those locations and locations further north on the
Chesapeake Bay. Minor coastal flooding will persist at Dahlgren
and St. Marys County for several high tide cycles. As Nor`easter
departs early next week, a snap back event may occur with
renewed minor coastal flooding possible.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for MDZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ017.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ018.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ530-535-
     536-538.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ531-532-539>541.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ533-534-537-542-
     543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/BRO/KVH
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/BRO/KVH
MARINE...ADS/LFR/BRO/KVH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR