772
FXUS61 KLWX 291848
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
248 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased precipitation chances this afternoon to accommodate
light rain/drizzle moving across portions of the forecast area.
Additionally, Coastal Flood Advisories were issued for Annapolis
and Havre de Grace.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Tranquil weather is expected through Thursday with
 climbing temperatures.

- 2) A stalling cold front and wave of low pressure may affect
 the area this weekend.

- 3) High pressure likely returns early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Tranquil weather is expected through Thursday
with climbing temperatures.

Moisture associated with the departing Nor`Easter remains over the
Mid-Atlantic through this afternoon, yielding increased cloud cover
and perhaps some light drizzle/rain showers. Upper level ridging
slowly builds overhead beginning tonight with surface high pressure
remaining overhead through Thursday.

With upper level ridging and surface high pressure overhead, dry
conditions and warming temperatures are expected through the end of
the week. High temperatures today will rise into the 60s and 70s
with highs by Thursday rising in the 90s for portions of the area.
On Friday, surface high pressure shifts offshore as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Dry conditions and warming
temperatures continue for most with the exception of afternoon rain
showers in the western portions of the Alleghenies.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stalling cold front and wave of low pressure
may affect the area this weekend.

Upper troughing shears out toward the Great Lakes, eventually
becoming absorbed in a larger cyclonic gyre near Hudson Bay this
weekend. At the surface, this pattern sends a cold front southward
into Virginia. There is some lingering uncertainty as to where the
front stalls, with a sharp temperature gradient across the frontal
zone (60s on the north/cool side, 80s on the south/warm side). The
temperature forecast for Saturday may be subject to large changes of
10 or more degrees as a result, with the current forecast splitting
the difference and calling for widespread 60s and 70s given at least
some broad consensus that the front ends up to the south placing the
Mid-Atlantic on its cooler and cloudier side. Shower activity may
accompany the stalling front, with uncertainty in coverage (though
anything severe or particularly heavy seems unlikely at this point).

A wave of low pressure, infused with tropical moisture from the
remnants of multiple East Pacific systems, treks toward the OH/TN
Valleys Saturday into Saturday night. The track of the low beyond
this point will depend on (1) where exactly the stalled front is,
and (2) the strength of a transient blocking high pressure to the
north. Rain or showers become increasingly likely for much of the
region Saturday night into Sunday, with a soaking rain possible if
the wave of low pressure is a bit more organized/closer to the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...High pressure likely returns early next week.

Following the weekend system, a large area of high pressure will
likely build from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes to the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic early next week. This sets the stage for much drier
weather and below normal temperatures for the first half of next
week. Daytime highs on Monday and Tuesday likely stay in the 60s
(50s in the mountains), with overnight lows in the 40s to near 50
(30s in the mountains and sheltered valleys west of the Blue Ridge
with perhaps some frost potential in the coldest spots).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions continue this afternoon across eastern terminals with
near MVFR ceilings lingering at KMRB. Winds remain light out of the
northwest this afternoon before becoming light and variable
overnight. With light winds, cloud cover diminishes tonight which
could lead to fog developing mainly over MRB and CHO.

Surface high pressure remains overhead Wednesday and Thursday with
VFR conditions expected both days. Winds shift to southerly on
Wednesday, blowing 10 knots or less. Winds remain light out of the
south/southwest on Thursday.

Lower CIGs are possible in the wake of a stalling cold front
Saturday. Rain showers become increasingly likely Saturday night
into Sunday with sub-VFR CIGs/VSBYs possible at times. The wind
forecast is somewhat uncertain and contingent on where exactly a
front stalls Saturday, and where a wave of low pressure tracks
Sunday, but generally north to east flow is expected. Some gusts of
15 to 20 knots are plausible each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds remain out of the north/northwest this afternoon before
becoming light and variable overnight. Winds shift to southerly
Wednesday and remain out of the south on Thursday. With southerly
channeling, winds increase over the waters although are expected to
remain below SCA criteria. That being said, a brief period of near
SCA criteria winds are possible on Thursday afternoon and can likely
be covered with an MWS.

North to northeast winds may gust to around 20 knots in the wake of
a stalling front Saturday, though the wind forecast is a bit
uncertain and depends on exactly where the front stalls. A wave of
low pressure passes by on Sunday, which depending on its exact track
and strength could result in additional gustiness and SCAs. Rain
showers are most likely Saturday night into Sunday; thunder
potential seems very low, but not zero during this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Some uncertainty exists for the remainder of the week as tide
levels remain elevated. Coastal Flood Advisories have been
issued for Annapolis and Havre de Grace with tidal anomalies
forecast to reach minor flood stage. Any subtle shifts upward
could result in additional minor flooding, particularly at
Dahlgren, Alexandria, and Baltimore where high tide will near
minor flood stage. Minor flooding will occur as soon as this
evening`s high tide. Evening tides would be favored going
forward as well since they are astronomically higher.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/DHOF
AVIATION...AVS/DHOF
MARINE...AVS/DHOF