564
FXUS61 KLWX 020756
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
356 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong area of high pressure over the northeast CONUS through this
weekend will gradually shift offshore early next week. High pressure
weakens into next week while the next front is expected to slowly
approach from the south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

GOES and VIIRS imagery show widespread areas of fog early this
morning west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. In addition, model
guidance indicate some shallow rain may be occurring across
Augusta, Highland and Nelson Counties where satellite imagery
shows clouds being thicker. Clouds will gradually thin out this
afternoon across southern areas as drier air pushes in, but
expect a broken stratocumulus field to develop in the afternoon
due to daytime heating and low-level moisture trapped beneath a
subsidence inversion. Mostly clear and cool tonight with lows
in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Fair/tranquil weather will continue through early next week
under high pressure. Expect a broken stratocu field to develop
once again Sunday afternoon, then clearing at night. Clear skies
expected Monday as low-levels dry out further. A little warmer
due to abundant sunshine, but still below normal for early
August.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

1022-1024mb high pressure will remain wedged down the eastern side
of the Appalachians from north-central PA through Monday. Meanwhile,
quasi-zonal flow will continue aloft leading to a continuation of
seasonably cool temperatures, low humidity, and dry conditions at
least for early August standards. Highs Monday will push into the
mid to upper 80s east of the Alleghenies with mid to upper 70s and
low 80s across the Shenandoah Valley/Blue Ridge/Catoctins/higher
elevations above 2000 feet. Dewpoints will rise slightly into the
upper 50s and low 60s as the wedge of high pressure weakens while
shifting east into western New York and central New England. Lows
Monday night will fall back into the low to mid 60s east of the Blue
Ridge (Baltimore/Washington DC metros upper 60s) with mid to upper
50s over the mountains.

Wedging high pressure over the interior Northeast and northern Mid-
Atlantic will continue to weaken Tuesday while shifting offshore
into midweek. Meanwhile, a potent upper-level trough will dig across
the Great Lakes and through the southeastern U.S. sending Gulf
moisture northward into the region midweek. Showers and t-storm
chances will increase as a result of this moisture being funneled
northward between the western Atlantic ridge and incoming shortwave
trough. Highest chances for storms Tuesday and Wednesday will be
during the diurnal heating period over the mountains. This is due in
part to the slow erosion of the wedge/residual dry air as high
pressure kicks offshore. The wedge of high pressure will finally
erode out Thursday as the trough swings through the region. In
addition to the trough will be an area of low pressure off the
Carolinas. It remains to be seen exactly how this wave of low
pressure evolves and where it tracks. With that said, have kept
slightly higher shower and thunderstorm chances in Thursday and
Friday as low and mid-level moisture increases across the region. No
real significant frontal boundaries look to cross the area during
this time to flip over the airmass into the upcoming weekend ahead.

Temperatures will remain at or just below average through at least
Thursday. Highs each day will push into the upper 70s to mid 80s
with overnight lows in the upper 50s and low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Bkn stratocu field during the day both today and Sunday, then
clearing at night under a light N or NNE flow.

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
Some temporary reductions are possible each afternoon especially
over the mountain terminals where showers and thunderstorms look to
occur. Winds will remain out of the east and northeast Tuesday at
less than 10 kts. Winds change back to the west and southwest by the
middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will gradually diminish through the weekend, but may
remain above SCA levels across the southern waters into Monday.
Given borderline conditions will not extend at this time.

No marine hazards are expected Tuesday as high pressure sits nearby.
Sub-SCA level winds are expected out of the east and northeast at
less than 15 kts. Winds turn back to the west and southwest
Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure pushes offshore.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A Coastal Flood Advisory will likely be needed for Anne Arundel
County later today.

Winds turn onshore over the weekend as high pressure sets up over
the northeast CONUS. This wind direction will result in increased
tidal anomalies through Sunday which could push the sensitive tidal
sites into minor flood stage, particularly at Annapolis. This water
will then also make a run up the tidal Potomac River Sunday into
Monday, which could bring those sites close to minor by late Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ501-502-
     509-510.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ026>031-
     503-504.
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ050>053-
     055-501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ532-533-
     540>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ534-537-
     543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/DHOF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF