950
FXUS61 KLWX 031527
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1027 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No further changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through
  Wednesday with increasing rain chances Thursday into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through
Wednesday with increasing rain chances Thursday into early next
week.

Surface high pressure will meander offshore before shifting
further out into the western Atlantic Wednesday. As a result,
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies this afternoon and during
the day Wednesday with a steady supply of southerly return
flow.

Highs will warm into the 60s to mid 70s this afternoon. Lows
tonight will fall back into the upper 40s and low 50s with highs
back in the low to mid 70s Wednesday. A few locations could
punch into the upper 70s in the lee of Alleghenies and
south/east of Washington DC Wednesday afternoon given increased
southerly flow.

Overall Wednesday will be our day of transition given the buckling
ridge/departing high pressure offshore and incumbent upper level
trough approaching from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. This
will lead to increasing clouds Wednesday afternoon with rain chances
likely arriving from the west as early as Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night. Current 18z/00z guidance suggests a weaker system
for Thursday leading to lower rain amounts. This is largely due in
part to the trough passing north and west of the region from the
northern Ohio River Valley/eastern Great Lakes keeping the bulk of
the forcing north of the region. The resultant surface front is set
to cross sometime Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon leading
to scattered showers and a few t-storms. Rainfall amounts Thursday
will range between a tenth to a quarter of an inch with locally
higher totals west of the Alleghenies where better forcing resides.
Despite increased cloud cover expect highs back into the low to mid
70s (60s mountains) Thursday afternoon. Storm total rain through
Friday night will generally be between a quarter to a half an inch.

A secondary upper level trough and associated cold frontal boundary
will cross the region Friday into Saturday. Once again this system
will be fairly progressive per the past few model cycles. This
system looks to skip across the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge before
redeveloping east of I-95. This is due largely in part to the upper
level trough cutting off over the Great Lakes Friday evening into
Saturday morning. At the surface, this will yield a dry slot ahead
of the cold frontal boundary leading to higher rain chances over the
mountains and in areas along/east of I-95. With that said, NBM PoPs
continue to remain too high based upon this set up versus the
deterministic/ensemble guidance. Weak high pressure will slide in
from the southwest Saturday into Sunday cutting down rain chances
over the weekend ahead.

The high will be short-lived with another strong trough set to cross
the area late Sunday into Monday. This system appears much larger
than the previous two and more potent in delivering an airmass
change for next week. Periods of showers are possible late Sunday
night through early Tuesday morning although timing, coverage, and
placement are yet to be determined. Upslope precip may linger
Tuesday into Wednesday within northwest flow. Highs Monday and
Tuesday will return back into the upper 50s and mid 60s (40s
mountains).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions and light south/southeasterly winds at less than
15 kts will continue through Wednesday as high pressure
meanders over the western Atlantic. Some patchy fog could occur
again along and east of I-95 tonight/Wednesday morning given
the uptick in moisture advection. This will lead to brief
reductions in cigs/vsbys during the 9-13z/4-8am time window.
VFR conditions continue into Thursday although brief sub-VFR
reductions are possible at times with showers and even a few
thunderstorms Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. South to
southwesterly winds continue at less than 15 kts.

Additional sub-VFR reductions are possible at times Friday into
Friday night as a secondary trough of low pressure/front push
through. VFR conditions will prevail overall although showers during
the morning and afternoon/evening hours over the mountains and at
terminals along/east of I-95 could lead to brief reductions. Winds
will shift to the west Friday and eventually northwest Friday night
into Saturday. VFR conditions return Saturday into Sunday with
another round of sub-VFR conditions late Sunday night into Monday as
a stronger trough pushes through.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are expected through Wednesday morning. Winds will
remain light out of the south and southeast through Wednesday as
high pressure pushes offshore. By Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning, expect the potential for southerly channeling due to the
high offshore and incumbent trough from the northern Ohio River
Valley. Confidence in this occurring is low with a focus over the
middle and open waters.

Low pressure and a strong cold front will work across the waters
Thursday into Friday. Widespread showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon. Winds will remain
just below SCA levels both days with westerly gusts under 15 kts.
Weak high pressure returns Saturday before another strong front
crosses late Sunday into Monday. This front will bring a
greater likelihood of SCA conditions across the waters heading
into early next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KLW/CPB/EST
AVIATION...KLW/EST
MARINE...KLW/EST