063
FXUS61 KLWX 271839
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
239 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will bring dry conditions through Thursday
with cooler than average temperatures expected. A cold front will
cross the region Friday bringing passing clouds and perhaps a few
spotty showers. High pressure wedges in for the weekend into
early next week with a passing shower or two over the central
Blue Ridge as onshore upslope flow increases. Low pressure
approaches from the south by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered (east) to broken (west) cumulus were bubbling across
the area as of mid afternoon as high pressure builds in. Modest
northwest downsloping flow gusting 15 to 25 mph is helping
temperatures rise into the 70s.

Winds will subside this evening with the loss of daytime mixing.
As the high moves overhead, an ideal setup for radiational
cooling will take hold. This should allow sheltered high
elevation valleys to drop into the 30s or even a touch colder in
very isolated spots, with 40s and 50s elsewhere (except around
60 in the major city centers).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to build across the area Thursday.
Cooler than average temperatures and dry conditions will
continue through the day. A shortwave trough and its affiliated
surface cold front will approach the region Thursday night.
Isolated to scattered showers and sprinkles could evolve
Thursday night. Highs Thursday will be in the 60s in the
mountains, and middle to upper 70s elsewhere to the east. Lows
Thursday night will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the
mountains, and upper 50s to lower 60s to the east.

A cold front pushes across the region on Friday into Friday
evening. A couple additional showers could accompany the front
during this period but coverage looks widely scattered at best.
Highs Friday will be similar to Thursday, if not a few degrees
milder. Temperatures Friday night will become cooler than
Thursday night with cool air advection behind the front. Lows
Friday night could get as cold as the upper 30s in the
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overall the forecast remains dry with cooler than normal
temperatures expected to continue throughout period. Expect light
north to northeasterly flow Saturday into Sunday with light onshore
flow early next week. This is in association with building high
pressure over the Great Lakes region that will gradually wedge south
Monday into Tuesday. This high pressure system will eventually drift
east into the interior Northeast and toward northern New England
Wednesday through Friday. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will
remain to our south along a stalled boundary over the southeast U.S.
The progression of this low pressure system to the north will be halted
by the wedge through at least Tuesday before an advancement north and
east along the coastal Carolinas by the middle and end of next week. As
of now, little to no impact is expected from this system in our area
outside of some shower activity mainly along and east of I-95 Wednesday
and Thursday next week. A strong cold front will eject out of the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest late Wednesday into Thursday
before crossing late next week. This will lead to our next
substantial rain chances areawide within the long term period.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal throughout the weekend
into much next week. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in
the 50s. Mountain locations will be a touch cooler in the upper 60s and
low 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Increased onshore flow from
wedging high pressure will further confidence for cooler than
normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Friday night. Some daytime
stratocumulus clouds are expected, with some high clouds
possible tonight. Some increasing clouds are likely on Thursday
ahead of a cold front, then along the cold front Thursday
night. A shower could occur Thursday night, but not much more.
A shower is possible in spots Friday; otherwise, it will be drier
behind the passing front Friday night.

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the weekend into early
next week with wedging high pressure nearby. There are some hints at
the potential for sub-VFR CIGs during the late evening and
early morning hours Saturday through Tuesday mainly at terminals
south of KCBE/KMRB and west of KCHO. This is due in part to
increased onshore easterly upslope flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds diminish this evening and remain light through Thursday
morning. Another period of SCA conditions is possible (southerly
channeling) Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Another
period of SCA conditions may be possible Friday night behind a
cold front, but current guidance looks somewhat marginal.

No marine hazards are expected this weekend. Sub-SCA level
north to northeast winds are expected throughout the weekend as
high pressure builds from the north. Sub-SCA level winds
continue Monday through Wednesday as high pressure wedges down
the eastern face of the Appalachian Mountains.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southerly flow ahead of a cold front may drive water levels
close to minor flooding at Annapolis Thursday evening. The flow
should be brief enough to preclude flooding elsewhere, though
the typically more vulnerable spots will have to be monitored.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF/EST
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF/KLW
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...DHOF/EST
MARINE...DHOF/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF