189
FXUS61 KLWX 150733 CCA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
333 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Mid-Atlantic through the
weekend, then move offshore next week. A warm front will lift
through the region early in the week, ushering in a prolonged
period of hot weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early morning observations reveal areas of fog (some dense)
mainly in river valleys that received appreciable rainfall over
western Maryland and eastern West Virginia. Further east and
south, fog is a bit more patchy but still dense in spots. Fog
should burn off and lift by mid morning.

A mainly sunny sky is expected today as northerly breezes usher
in dry and seasonable air. The wind should go light to calm
tonight, allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure overhead Sunday will gradually shift offshore
through Monday as heights build aloft and a warm front crosses
from southwest to northeast. This warm front will usher in a
prolonged period of hot weather for next week. Temperatures
Sunday will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday with perhaps a
touch more humidity and a pop up shower or two near the
Appalachians during the afternoon.

Temperatures and humidity will continue to increase Sunday night
into Monday. After a start in the 60s, temperatures will climb
into the lower to middle 90s for most. When combined with the
modest increase in humidity, heat index values of 95 to near 100
are possible. A pop up shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out
near the Appalachians during the afternoon, but most of the time
will be dry.

Monday night will continue the warming trend with lows in the
middle 60s to lower 70s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A highly anomalous (2-3 sigma) upper level ridge will build over
the Eastern US next week, with 500 hPa heights reaching just shy
of 600 decameters. Meanwhile, high pressure will remain in
place at the surface just offshore. This will maintain light
south to southeasterly flow over the course of the week. Such a
combination will lead to a prolonged stretch of hot conditions.
Temperatures should reach into the mid 90s each day, with upper
90s possible by the end of the week. Overnight lows will
generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints will be
seasonable (in the mid 60s), which will make it feel a bit humid
as well. A prolonged period of dry conditions is expected for
most, although a stray popup afternoon thunderstorm can`t be
ruled out over the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some IFR fog may encroach upon MRB around daybreak. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are anticipated through Monday night. Wind
direction was a bit erratic early this morning but generally out
of the W/NW behind a departing cold front. N/NW winds will
increase after 10Z or so to 8-12 kts with gusts of 17-22 kts
through about 16-18Z before decreasing gradually through the
remainder of the day. Light NE flow is expected tonight, with E
to SE flow Sunday through Monday night. A few gusts to around 15
kts are possible Sunday and Monday afternoons. Dry weather is
expected through at least Monday night at the TAF sites, though
a stray shower or thunderstorm is possible to the west toward
the Appalachians Sunday and Monday afternoons.

VFR conditions and southeasterly winds are expected at the
terminals on both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
N/NW wind gusts of 20-25 knots are expected this morning into
possibly early this afternoon in the wake of a departing cold
front. Winds will become lighter and then NE by tonight, then E
to SE Sunday through Monday night. Dry weather is expected,
though gusts of 15-25 knots are possible during the late
afternoon and evening hours, especially Monday.

Sub-SCA southeasterly winds are expected over the waters on both
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hot temperatures are expected next week. Below is a list of record
high temperatures for June 17th through 21st, the year the record
was set, and the current forecast high temperatures for those days.
RERs are currently only issued for DCA, IAD, BWI, and MRB, but other
sites are shown for reference.

                                     Monday Jun 17th
Climate Site                  Record High     Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA)     99F (2022)          92F
Washington-Dulles (IAD)       96F (2022)          92F
Baltimore (BWI)               96F (2022+)         91F
Martinsburg (MRB)             98F (1939+)         93F
Charlottesville (CHO)         97F (2022)          92F
Annapolis (NAK)               96F (1939)          87F
Hagerstown (HGR)              96F (1952)          93F

                                     Tuesday Jun 18th
Climate Site                  Record High     Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA)     97F (1944)          95F
Washington-Dulles (IAD)       94F (2018+)         95F
Baltimore (BWI)               97F (1957+)         93F
Martinsburg (MRB)             99F (1943)          94F
Charlottesville (CHO)         96F (2014+)         95F
Annapolis (NAK)               96F (1957)          89F
Hagerstown (HGR)              95F (1957)          96F

                                    Wednesday Jun 19th
Climate Site                  Record High     Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA)     99F (1994)          94F
Washington-Dulles (IAD)       98F (1994)          95F
Baltimore (BWI)               99F (1994)          92F
Martinsburg (MRB)             96F (1994+)         93F
Charlottesville (CHO)         97F (2018)          94F
Annapolis (NAK)               96F (1993)          88F
Hagerstown (HGR)              97F (1994)          95F

                                    Thursday Jun 20th
Climate Site                  Record High     Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA)     99F (1931)          94F
Washington-Dulles (IAD)       97F (1964)          94F
Baltimore (BWI)              100F (1931)          93F
Martinsburg (MRB)             98F (1931)          93F
Charlottesville (CHO)         98F (1933)          94F
Annapolis (NAK)               98F (1988)          89F
Hagerstown (HGR)              98F (1931)          94F

                                     Friday Jun 21st
Climate Site                  Record High     Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA)     99F (2012)          97F
Washington-Dulles (IAD)       98F (1988)          97F
Baltimore (BWI)              100F (2012+)         95F
Martinsburg (MRB)            102F (1931)          95F
Charlottesville (CHO)         99F (1933)          96F
Annapolis (NAK)              100F (1988)          92F
Hagerstown (HGR)              97F (1923)          97F

+ indicates that value has been reached on multiple years, with
the year displayed being the most recent.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     MDZ501-502.
VA...None.
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     WVZ050-051-055-502>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ530>532-535-536-538>541.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ533-
     534-537-542-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP
MARINE...DHOF/KJP
CLIMATE...LWX