


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
963 FXUS61 KLWX 180051 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 851 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will gradually slide offshore through Saturday as a potent trough of low pressure and surface cold front approach the region. The cold front pushes through the area late Sunday into early Monday morning bringing the next chance of measurable rainfall along with windy conditions. High pressure briefly returns Tuesday before another weak front crosses for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Not as chilly tonight due largely in part to increasing high clouds as a weak piece of energy slides north of the area. Lows will range from upper 40s and low 50s over the ridges/metros with mid 30s in the deeper sheltered valleys. Dry conditions will prevail with high pressure nearby. Winds will remain light and variable with high pressure gradually sliding toward the southeast U.S coast Saturday. High pressure will continue off the NC/SC coast Saturday allowing for south to southwesterly return flow across the region. Clouds will start the day with sunny to mostly sunny skies Saturday afternoon. High temperatures will warm into the upper 60s and low 70s in most locations. Areas west of I-81 and downslope of the Alleghenies could see highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Winds will remain light out of the south and southwest at 5 to 10 mph. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A potent low will move into the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday morning and a cold front will approach from the west during this time. A southerly flow will increase, allowing for mild conditions. Moisture will begin to increase causing more clouds, but dry conditions will most likely persist. The cold front will slowly pass through the area from west to east later Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Showers are expected to develop with the frontal passage west of the Blue Ridge Sunday afternoon, and east of the Blue Ridge Sunday night. The upper-level trough axis is expected to swing toward a negative tilt around the time of the frontal passage. This means forcing will be strong along with a strong wind field aloft. Therefore, a line of gusty showers is most likely to develop late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening along and just ahead of the cold front. With a very strong wind field aloft, it is not out of the question for some of these winds to mix down, causing a threat for damaging wind gusts. However, confidence is low at this time due to limited instability. Additional showers are possible overnight behind the cold front as the negatively tilted upper-level trough passes through. Some guidance is indicating a closed upper-level low can develop. If so, the showers will be more widespread during the overnight hours. Shower activity could linger into Monday in northwest flow as the front works east with the resultant closed low departing for eastern Canada. Skies will gradually clear Monday afternoon with breezy conditions expected as the front pushes east and high pressure returns from the southeast U.S. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong cold front should have pushed east of the area early Monday morning with gusty post-frontal NW winds. Weak sfc high pressure builds in by the end of Monday. Another potent trough/closed low traverses the Mid-Atlc area Tue night bringing light rain showers Tuesday afternoon and evening with mountain rain showers continuing in favorable upslope flow and even perhaps a snowflake mixed in at times over the highest elevations as 850 mb temps drop between 0C and +2C. Broad trough pattern persists for the second half of next week keeping near normal to below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue through Sunday morning. SOme high clouds will pass through the area late tonight with light and variable winds expected. High pressure will keep things dry as it shifts off the southeast U.S coast Saturday. Winds will turn to the south and southwest at less than 10kts. Stronger southerly winds are expected ahead of a cold front Sunday with gusts around 25 to 35 knots most likely. Showers are expected with the cold front later Sunday afternoon through most of Sunday night. A wind shift to the west and northwest is expected behind the cold front late Sunday night. Sub-VFR conditions are possible in showers Sunday night early Monday Gusty post-frontal northwest winds Monday, which diminish by Monday evening as high pressure returns from the south. VFR conditions return Tuesday into Wednesday despite a dry cold front passing through the region. This front will lead to another round of gusty winds for the middle of next week. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions are expected for the remainder of this evening into Saturday. Winds will decrease out of the north before becoming light and variable overnight into early Saturday morning. Southerly winds will develop Saturday, but wind speeds should remain below SCA criteria. Southerly winds may channel up the Bay and lower Tidal Potomac Saturday night, and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed for those areas. Stronger southerly winds are expected Sunday into Sunday evening ahead of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed. Winds may even approach gale-force, but confidence is lower due to the relatively cooler waters. Winds will turn to the northwest behind a cold front late Sunday night, and an SCA will be needed. Showers will increase in coverage, especially Sunday night. A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, along the cold front may cause gusty winds, and Special Marine Warnings may be warranted. This is most likely to occur late Sunday evening into SUnday night. SCA conditions will likely continue throughout most of Monday in post-frontal west to northwest flow. Winds decrease back below sub- SCA levels Monday evening into TUesday as high pressure returns from the south. Additional SCA conditions are possible by the middle of next week as another front passes through. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Higher anomalies in the southern portion of the Chesapeake Bay will surge northward tonight, and this may cause minor tidal flooding for sensitive areas (Annapolis) with the high tide cycle tonight. A southerly flow will develop Saturday and strengthen Sunday. This will continue to increase tidal anomalies along with the fact that a new moon is approaching on the 21st. Minor tidal flooding is expected for sensitive areas Saturday into Saturday night, and for most areas Sunday into Sunday night. There is the potential for moderate tidal flooding around Annapolis with the high tide cycles Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Will continue to monitor. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EST NEAR TERM...BJL/CJL SHORT TERM...BJL/CJL LONG TERM...LFR AVIATION...BJL/LFR/EST MARINE...BJL/LFR/CJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL