Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
701
FXUS61 KLWX 151400
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1000 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Mid-Atlantic through the
weekend, then move offshore next week. A warm front will lift
through the region early in the week, ushering in a prolonged
period of hot weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mostly sunny skies expected today as northerly breezes usher in
dry and seasonable air. The wind should go light to calm
tonight, allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s and 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure overhead Sunday will gradually shift offshore
through Monday as heights build aloft and a warm front crosses
from southwest to northeast. This warm front will usher in a
prolonged period of hot weather for next week. Temperatures
Sunday will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday with perhaps a
touch more humidity and a pop up shower or two near the
Appalachians during the afternoon.
Temperatures and humidity will continue to increase Sunday night
into Monday. After a start in the 60s, temperatures will climb
into the lower to middle 90s for most. When combined with the
modest increase in humidity, heat index values of 95 to near 100
are possible. A pop up shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out
near the Appalachians during the afternoon, but most of the time
will be dry.
Monday night will continue the warming trend with lows in the
middle 60s to lower 70s expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A highly anomalous (2-3 sigma) upper level ridge will build over
the Eastern US next week, with 500 hPa heights reaching just shy
of 600 decameters. Meanwhile, high pressure will remain in
place at the surface just offshore. This will maintain light
south to southeasterly flow over the course of the week. Such a
combination will lead to a prolonged stretch of hot conditions.
Temperatures should reach into the mid 90s each day, with upper
90s possible by the end of the week. Overnight lows will
generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints will be
seasonable (in the mid 60s), which will make it feel a bit humid
as well. A prolonged period of dry conditions is expected for
most, although a stray popup afternoon thunderstorm can`t be
ruled out over the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are anticipated through Monday night. N/NW winds
around 8-12 kts with gusts of 17-20 kts through about 16-18Z,
then decreasing gradually through the remainder of the day.
Light NE flow is expected tonight, with E to SE flow Sunday
through Monday night. A few gusts to around 15 kts are possible
Sunday and Monday afternoons. Dry weather is expected through at
least Monday night at the TAF sites, though a stray shower or
thunderstorm is possible to the west toward the Appalachians
Sunday and Monday afternoons.
VFR conditions and southeasterly winds are expected at the
terminals on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
N/NW wind gusts of 20-25 knots continue through early afternoon
in the wake of a departing cold front. Winds become lighter and
then NE by tonight, then E to SE Sunday through Monday night.
Dry weather is expected, though gusts of 15-25 knots are
possible during the late afternoon and evening hours, especially
Monday.
Sub-SCA southeasterly winds are expected over the waters on both
Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Hot temperatures are expected next week. Below is a list of record
high temperatures for June 17th through 21st, the year the record
was set, and the current forecast high temperatures for those days.
RERs are currently only issued for DCA, IAD, BWI, and MRB, but other
sites are shown for reference.
Monday Jun 17th
Climate Site Record High Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA) 99F (2022) 92F
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 96F (2022) 92F
Baltimore (BWI) 96F (2022+) 91F
Martinsburg (MRB) 98F (1939+) 93F
Charlottesville (CHO) 97F (2022) 92F
Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1939) 87F
Hagerstown (HGR) 96F (1952) 93F
Tuesday Jun 18th
Climate Site Record High Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA) 97F (1944) 95F
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 94F (2018+) 95F
Baltimore (BWI) 97F (1957+) 93F
Martinsburg (MRB) 99F (1943) 94F
Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (2014+) 95F
Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1957) 89F
Hagerstown (HGR) 95F (1957) 96F
Wednesday Jun 19th
Climate Site Record High Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA) 99F (1994) 94F
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 98F (1994) 95F
Baltimore (BWI) 99F (1994) 92F
Martinsburg (MRB) 96F (1994+) 93F
Charlottesville (CHO) 97F (2018) 94F
Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1993) 88F
Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1994) 95F
Thursday Jun 20th
Climate Site Record High Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA) 99F (1931) 94F
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 97F (1964) 94F
Baltimore (BWI) 100F (1931) 93F
Martinsburg (MRB) 98F (1931) 93F
Charlottesville (CHO) 98F (1933) 94F
Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1988) 89F
Hagerstown (HGR) 98F (1931) 94F
Friday Jun 21st
Climate Site Record High Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA) 99F (2012) 97F
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 98F (1988) 97F
Baltimore (BWI) 100F (2012+) 95F
Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1931) 95F
Charlottesville (CHO) 99F (1933) 96F
Annapolis (NAK) 100F (1988) 92F
Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1923) 97F
+ indicates that value has been reached on multiple years, with
the year displayed being the most recent.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
ANZ530>532-535-536-538>541.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ533-
534-537-542-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...KRR/DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KRR/DHOF/KJP
MARINE...KRR/DHOF/KJP
CLIMATE...DHOF