141
FXUS61 KLWX 081816
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
216 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will sag south and east of the area through
this evening leading to gradually clearing skies, falling
temperatures, and breezy conditions. High pressure will build in
from the north tonight into Thursday allowing for seasonably cool
air to filter in. A widespread frost and freeze is possible for
areas west of Interstate 95 Thursday night into Friday as high
pressure remains north of the region. Coastal low pressure will
develop along the southeast U.S. coast this weekend before
lifting north toward the Delmarva early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 18Z/2PM EDT, a few spotty showers were exiting southern
Maryland in association with a strong cold front. This front
should be fully offshore within the next hour or two, with
rapidly clearing skies and gusts of 20-30 mph in its wake.

Strong cold/dry advection will continue behind the front this
into tonight. The front is strong enough to cause a temperature
drop during the afternoon. Clouds will quickly erode from
northwest to southeast, with most locations experiencing at
least some sunshine this afternoon prior to sunset.

Strong cold advection will continue overnight tonight, with most
locations dropping back into the 40s and winds holding at
around 5-10 mph out of the north. The pressure gradient should
weaken just enough across western portions of the forecast area
for sheltered mountain valleys to decouple and go calm. That
should allow for frost to form in those locations late tonight.

Frost Advisories remain in effect tonight for portions of the
Alleghenies and Potomac Highlands where temperatures are
forecast to drop into the mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build to our north Thursday into Friday.
This will result in sunny skies during the day and clear skies
at night. Temperatures will be the coolest of the season thus
far, with daytime highs only reaching into the 60s (50s
mountains).

A surface ridge will strengthen over our area to the southwest
of the high pressure center Thursday night. This should enable
most locations to decouple. With clear skies and calm winds,
this will set the stage for ideal radiational cooling conditions.
Temperatures will drop into the 30s to the west of I-95, with
most of those locations likely having frost. Freeze Watches
remain in effect for the Alleghenies, Potomac Highlands, and
much of the Shenandoah Valley where confidence is highest for
sub-freezing temperatures Thursday night. An expansion of the
Freeze Watch (or Frost Advisories) may be needed further east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A coastal low pressure system continues to bring plenty of
uncertainty to the forecast for the upcoming weekend into early next
week. Synoptically, we will remain in a split flow pattern
caught between the northern and southern branches of the jet
stream. Surface high pressure will gradually push east from
southern New England into the western Atlantic through the
weekend while an area of low pressure pushes north along a
stalled boundary at the southeast U.S. coast. Meanwhile, closed
low pressure looks to dig south from the Great Lakes/Ohio River
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic during the weekend timeframe.
Deterministic and ensemble model solutions continue to exhibit
large spread when it comes to how these features interact,
although some consistency has been noted in the latest 12z
solutions. The biggest question overall is to how far south the
closed low feature digs into the region and its overall
placement to interact with the incoming coastal low.

The 12z EPS continues to favor a solution where the cutoff low
pressure system has some interaction with the incumbent
shortwave/cutoff low over the Northeast. The 12z GEFS also favors
some interaction between the cutoff low and coastal low, especially
toward the back half of the weekend into early next week. Both
solutions suggest increasing rain chances late Saturday into
Sunday, especially in locations east of the Blue Ridge and
toward the I-95 corridor. Some shower activity may push toward
the mountains, but is highly dependent on the timing/placement
of the coastal feature and interaction with the closed
low/shortwave feature which looks to pass just over/north of the
region. Either way, this is a highly volatile forecast with
many moving parts that will have to be closely monitored. A
blend of the solutions would suggest increased cloud cover,
seasonable temperatures, and blustery conditions (especially by
the waters) for the upcoming weekend ahead. Precipitation
chances look to increase from the southeast Saturday afternoon
and evening as the influence of high pressure kicks further into
the western Atlantic, and coastal low pressure moves toward the
Carolinas. Rain chances will continue to increase for all
locations with an emphasis for those east of US-15 Sunday into
Monday as low pressure lifts up toward the Delmarva, and the
shortwave trough/cutoff low nears. Rain chances will decrease
Tuesday as the cutoff low/shortwave trough pushes east, and the
coastal low retrogrades back south toward the Carolinas. High
pressure returns thereafter for the middle part of next week.

Persistent east to northeasterly flow will lead to below normal
temperatures through early next week. Highs should remain in the 60s
with overnight lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Rainfall chances are
generally confined to areas along and east of I-95, and generally
capped at 30 to 50 percent. There is certainly room for this to
change based on the track of the coastal feature. Expect wind gusts
of 20 to 25 mph over land Sunday with gale gusts possible over
the waters. Stay tuned and check back at weather.gov/lwx for the
latest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wind gusts will gradually subside this evening. VFR conditions
will continue tonight through Thursday and Friday. Winds will be
out of the north tonight, northeast tomorrow, go light or calm
tomorrow night, and then become east to southeasterly on Friday.

The next chance of sub-VFR conditions arrives this weekend as
an area of low pressure works northward from the southeast U.S.
coast. The track and placement of this low will determine
restrictions (if any) from low clouds and showers across the
terminals. Highest confidence for restrictions would be at
terminals along the I-95 corridor. Expect mainly northeasterly
winds with increasing gusts by Sunday. For the D.C. and
Baltimore terminals, gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are possible,
perhaps higher. VFR conditions will return Tuesday into the
middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Following the passage of a strong cold front, gusts of 20 to 30
knots are expected at times into tonight within north to
northwesterly flow. Winds will decrease to sub-SCA levels
around mid-morning Thursday. Sub-SCA level conditions are
expected within northeasterly flow Thursday afternoon, and then
within easterly flow on Friday.

Low pressure will approach from the southeast U.S. coast
bringing another period of SCA conditions this weekend. Depending
on the strength and position of coastal low pressure, gales
would be possible, especially over the southern-most waters.
The current forecast package calls for 30 to 40 knot
northeasterly gusts by Sunday afternoon/evening. Similar gusts
are expected Monday, especially over middle and lower portions
of the Chesapeake Bay/tidal Potomac River. SCA conditions may
linger for portions of the waters through Tuesday before high
pressure returns midweek.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies will be on the decrease through Thursday as offshore
northwesterly winds increase behind a cold front. Anomalies will
rapidly rebound later Thursday into Friday as northerly winds
begin to decrease and turn easterly. Coastal flooding appears
probable Friday within onshore flow. While most locations will
likely only reach Action or Minor Flood Stage, Annapolis may
potentially make a run at Moderate Flood Stage with the high
tide Friday evening. Additional coastal flooding is possible
this weekend as a coastal low develops to our south and moves up
the Eastern Seaboard.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ008.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ501-509-
     510.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for MDZ501-502-509-510.
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ503-504.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ501>503-
     505-506.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF/KJP
NEAR TERM...DHOF/KJP
SHORT TERM...DHOF/KJP
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP/EST
MARINE...DHOF/KJP/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX