990
FXUS61 KLWX 222000
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
300 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday. Low pressure
will track off to our northwest on Wednesday, causing a strong
cold front to move through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A mid-level shortwave and associated area of low pressure at the
surface have progressed to our east this afternoon. Rain has
just recently cleared the forecast area, and low clouds are also
starting to erode, with breaks of sunshine evident on satellite
across much of the area. Temperatures have climbed into the 50s
and are near their highs for the day.

A weak ridge of high pressure will build in at the surface
tonight, causing winds to go either light or calm. Temperatures
are forecast to drop back into the 30s to near 40 beneath
partly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave embedded in northwesterly flow aloft will pass to
our north during the day tomorrow. An associated clipper low
will track across Eastern Ontario and Quebec. Further to the
west, high pressure will build over the Mississippi/Ohio River
Valleys. No precipitation is expected locally as the
aforementioned system tracks to our north, but there may be some
passing clouds at times. Winds will initially be light out of
the southwest, and temperatures are forecast to climb into the
upper 50s and lower 60s for most (40s mountains). A reinforcing
cold front will move through during the afternoon hours, causing
winds to turn out of the northwest and pick up in magnitude.
Gusts of around 30 mph will be possible during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Clear skies are expected Sunday
night, with lows in the 30s.

High pressure will build overhead on Monday, leading to light
winds and dry conditions. Skies should start out mostly sunny,
but high clouds will be on the increase over the course of the
day. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level trough located over the central plains deepens as it
pivots eastward toward the forecast area Tuesday. At the surface, a
low pressure system tracking across the Great Lakes region is pushed
northeastward into Canada as the associated cold front approaches
the forecast area before moving through on Wednesday. Temperatures
gradually warm Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the cold front as
southerly flow ushers in increased moisture and warmer air. High
temperatures on tuesday will be in the 50s for most with isolated
locations reaching the low 60s. On Wednesday, high temperatures rise
into the 60s to low 70s across the area with only those at higher
elevations staying in the 50s. Precipitation chances peak Tuesday
night into Wednesday ahead of the frontal passage, with conditions
gradually drying out beginning Wednesday afternoon.

Behind the front, surface high builds over the area Thursday and
Friday. Dry conditions are expected both days. Temperatures on
Thanksgiving Day will be nearly 20 degrees cooler compared to the
day prior with highs in the 40s for most. Temperatures continue to
cool for Friday with highs staying in the 30s and 40s across the
area. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain has come to an end, but MVFR ceilings are lingering at a
few terminals. Ceilings are expected to improve to VFR shortly
at all terminals and should remain VFR through Monday. Winds
will be out of the north this afternoon, turn out of the
southwest tomorrow morning, and then northwest tomorrow
afternoon behind a reinforcing cold front. Winds may gust to
around 25-30 knots late tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow evening
within northwesterly flow. Lighter winds are expected on Monday
as high pressure builds in from the west.

Southerly winds on Tuesday shift shift to westerly on Wednesday as a
cold front approaches and moves across the terminals. South winds
gust around 15 knots Tuesday afternoon before becoming light
overnight. West winds gust 15 to 20 knots on Wednesday across all
terminals. Precipitation chances both days will yield possible
restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are northerly over the waters this afternoon. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for the middle portions of Chesapeake
Bay, as well as the Lower Tidal Potomac through this evening.
Winds will decrease tonight, and then turn out of the southwest
tomorrow morning. A cold front will move over the waters late
tomorrow afternoon. Winds will shift to out of the northwest
behind the front and pick up in magnitude. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed for all waters late tomorrow
afternoon, with Small Craft Advisory winds lingering through
much or all of the night across the wider waters. A few gusts
could even near low-end Gale conditions late tomorrow afternoon.
Winds will be on the decrease Monday as high pressure builds in
from the west.

Winds primarily remain below SCA criteria on Tuesday with the
exception being the southern portions of the Chesapeake bay. Here,
southerly channeling will lead to winds nearing SCA criteria. Winds
become light overnight before shifting to westerly on Wednesday.
SCA criteria winds are possible across all waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...KJP/AVS
MARINE...KJP/AVS