299
FXUS61 KLWX 110758
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
358 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A powerful coastal low will develop off the Southeast U.S. coast
this weekend, then track northward up the East Coast to the northern
Mid-Atlantic at the start of next week. A second area of high
pressure builds in toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A potent coastal low is beginning to develop off the southeast U.S.
coast early this morning, aided by a sharp upper trough stretching
from the OH Valley to the eastern Gulf. This trough is expected to
cutoff over the far Southeast states today and meander in that area
through the weekend. To the north, high pressure off of Southern New
England continues to drift further offshore today. A secondary
shortwave trough over the central Great Lakes/southern ON cuts off
and drifts over PA/NY by Sunday.

The interaction of the high to the north and developing low pressure
off the Southeast coast is going to tighten the pressure gradient
across the Mid-Atlantic, especially tonight into Sunday. A steady
northeast wind takes hold by this afternoon as showers begin to
reach areas along/east of I-95 by this afternoon. Coverage of
showers is going to be on the low side and most of it should be
light to start off. We won`t really get into any heavier precip
until late tonight into Sunday. Highs early this afternoon reach the
mid 60s to around 70F.

A significant change in the model guidance from yesterday is the
lack of rapid phasing of the two mid-level cutoffs. Most guidance
now show a gradual phasing of the two vort centers, a process that
plays out over a two to three day period. As a result, there could
now be two surface lows that develop in tandem along the broad
frontal/baroclinic zone that stretches from the Carolinas to well
off the southern New England coast. This is important for our area
as it will displace the strongest winds to east of the Delmarva and
also has led to a big decrease in overall rain totals for the area.

As a result, we likely see an initial surge of wind and rain moving
into the area Sunday morning as the baroclinic zone takes hold
across the Mid-Atlantic. The strongest winds are going to occur
Sunday morning, gusting around 25-35 mph and up to 35-40 mph along
the immediate Western Shore of the Chesapeake. Lesser, but still
breezy at times, west of the Blue Ridge with gusts around 20-25 mph.
A steady rain overspread the area early Sunday morning and persists
through Sunday night. For those west of the Blue Ridge it likely
will be a steady drizzle to light rain, with more light to moderate
east of the Blue Ridge. Rainfall totals are around half to three
quarters of an inch, with 1.00-1.50" along/east of I-95.

The wind forecast is lower than what we had yesterday, so probably
will not reach Wind Advisory criteria along the Western Shore on
Sunday. Cannot rule out some sporadic gusts around 45-50 mph, but
the threat for frequent gusts to that level are much lower. Temps
struggle to reach the low to mid 60s Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Model guidance is in decent agreement that the coastal low will be
located east of the Delmarva come Monday morning. The low meanders
there and could retrograde a bit westward as the upper-level systems
phase over the Mid-Atlantic Monday evening into Monday night.
Conditions remain mostly steady state for most of the area as temps
barely reach the lower 60s Monday afternoon. Rain starts to wane for
areas west of the Blue Ridge Monday afternoon. Breezy conditions
persist Monday, mostly east of the Blue Ridge with gusts around 20-
30 mph. The steady light rain continues for the eastern half of
Maryland, including parts of the DC Metro through Monday evening,
then slowly decreases Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Precipitation chances dwindle throughout the day on Tuesday as the
coastal low departs the region offshore. A tight pressure gradient
between high pressure building overhead and the departing low
pressure system will yield north/northwest winds gusting 15 to 20
knots Tuesday afternoon. As high pressure continues to build, winds
diminish slightly although continue to gust 15 to 20 knots east of
the Blue Ridge. Dry conditions persist through the end of the week.

High temperatures will be in the 60s to low 70s Tuesday and
Wednesday with highest elevations staying in the 50s. High
temperatures cool slightly with highs staying in the 50s and 60s
Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be in the 40s for most each
night with the warmest night being Tuesday night. Then, overnight
lows will stay in the 50s for those along and east of the Blue
Ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A coastal low will develop off the Southeast U.S. coast this
weekend, then track up the East Coast toward the Delmarva at the
start of next week. East to northeast winds today are going to bring
in lowering marine stratocu that likely produce MVFR CIGs at all
terminals east of the Blue Ridge. Conditions worsen tonight into
Sunday as IFR CIGs and steady showers develop at most terminals.
These sub-VFR conditions are likely to continue through Monday night.

Breezy northeast winds are likely Sunday into Sunday night, with
sustained winds around 15-20 knots and gusts around 25-35 knots.
Some terminals could gust up to 40 knots at times.

The coastal low meanders off the Delmarva coast Monday, though winds
will back to northwest and remain breezy. Gusts Monday are forecast
to be around 20-30 knots, with showers still in the area. It is
quite possible that very low CIGs (IFR to LIFR conditions)
overspread the area at some point Sunday into Monday.

VFR conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as conditions dry
out across the terminals. North winds on Tuesday shift to northwest
on Wednesday, gusting 15 to 20 knots each afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A coastal low impacting the region is expected to produce a
prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions. Small Craft
Advisories begin for all of the waters by this afternoon as east to
northeast winds start gusting around 20-25 knots.

As the coastal low strengthens and moves up the East Coast, the
pressure gradient over the area is going to tighten, resulting in
increasing winds. Gale conditions are expected for most of Sunday
into Sunday night, with a second period of gales possible in the
middle to lower Chesapeake Bay on Monday. Frequent gusts of 40-45
knots are likely across the waters Sunday. After that, SCA
conditions will continue through Monday night.

North winds on Tuesday shift to northwest on Wednesday, with winds
gusting 20 to 30 knots over the waters both days. Small Craft
Advisories are likely both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A tricky tidal forecast for this weekend into early next week as a
coastal low strengthens on its path up the East Coast. As the low
approaches the area, the strong northeast winds will push water up
the bay, then that water likely remains trapped there as the low
sits offshore through Monday. This could result in minor tidal
flooding at sensitive locations, most likely at Annapolis.

Current models show the possibility of a wide range in tidal
anomalies across the Chesapeake, with higher levels from Annapolis
south and much lower levels in the upper bay.

On the back end of this system, strong N/NW winds are forecast to
push tides out rapidly, potentially leading to blowout conditions
everywhere. Low Water Advisories may need to be considered at some
point during early to middle part of next week, but it is still a
bit too far out to be certain at this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EDT
     Sunday for ANZ530-531-538-539.
     Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for
     ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ532-533-540>542.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ534-537-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Sunday for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...KRR/AVS
MARINE...KRR/AVS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR