815
FXUS61 KLWX 060051
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
851 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes were made to the latest forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Isolated showers linger through the evening, but there will
  be no severe weather threat.

- 2) Drier conditions with seasonable temperatures and lower
  humidity Sunday into early next week.

- 3) Shower and thunderstorm chances return by mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated showers linger through the evening, but
there will be no severe weather threat.

The primary cold front is currently nosing southward while
moving into northern sections of North Carolina. Despite the
post-frontal air mass, humidity levels have not fully dropped
off yet with current dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Compared the 00Z IAD sounding from the one this morning showed
much of the drying occurring in the 700-mb and above layer. Looking
on radar, most afternoon activity has waned with the loss of
daytime heating. However, some residual isolated showers
persist, mainly along I-64 and up toward the Shenandoah Valley.
These too should dissipate in time with diminishing levels of
instability. Low temperatures will drop several degrees from
previous nights into the 60s for most, even mid 50s in the
mountains.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions with seasonable temperatures and
lower humidity Sunday into early next week.

Broad high pressure over the Great Lakes will track over the
Mid-Atlantic Sunday into Monday, with accompanying mid-level
dry air that will bring down humidity and t-storm chances. Daily
highs drop into the low 80s, along with drier dewpoints in the
mid to upper 50s. Overnight lows in the 50s and low 60s.

Surface high pressure begins to transition south of the Mid-Atlantic
on Tuesday as upper level ridging builds over the Southeast.
Temperatures likely begin to creep up again during this time,
accompanied by increasing humidity as mid-level dry air tracks south
of the region with more humid air coming in from the north. This
will correspond with strong upper-level trough forming over Quebec
around midweek, with an accompanying cold front tracking across the
East Coast sometime between Wednesday and Thursday. This could
create some chances for precipitation over the region, with some
indicators for low-end instability over the area as this mid-level
moisture tracks southeast. Severe probabilities look low at this
time, but a few thunderstorms are not completely out of the question
as this front moves through.

Looking towards late next week, temperatures likely drop again in
the wake of this cold front Friday as it tracks to the south.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Shower and thunderstorm chances return by mid
week.

Entering into the later half of next week, southerly return flow
from a high pressure system just off the Mid-Atlatic coast drives
warm, moist air into our region. Models depict a surface low
deepening over Quebec and advancing a corresponding cold front
through our region sometime late next week. There is still a quite a
bit of uncertainty associated with the arrival of this boundary to
our region, with its arrival ranging between Wednesday and Thursday.
A bove-normal high temperatures and dew points out ahead of this
boundary could potentially destabilize the atmosphere and lead to
showers and thunderstorms late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few showers may linger into the night at KCHO, but these will
be more or less off and on.

VFR conditions should persist Sunday through Wednesday evening.
Flight categories could deteriorate with showers and
thunderstorms returning on Thursday. Light southerly winds on
Wednesday shift northwesterly and strengthen by Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are expected through the holiday weekend.
Generally light flow is expected, though onshore gusts could
approach marginal SCA levels late Sunday afternoon.

Northeasterly winds Monday shift southerly on Tuesday. Winds
stay below 15 knots through Monday and Tuesday. Winds could
increase to SCA levels on Wednesday into Thursday ahead of an
incoming cold front.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain elevated over the next several days due
to an onshore flow. Minor tidal flooding is possible at
Annapolis, and could also be possible in the other sensitive
tidal locations in the northern Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRO/CJL/KVH
AVIATION...BRO/CJL/KVH
MARINE...KVH