308
FXUS61 KLWX 170753
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
353 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches the area from the northwest today as surface
high pressure remains over the southeast. The cold front will stall
over the region on Friday and remain nearby through the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front approaches from the northwest today as hot and humid
conditions continue. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s
for most of the area with dewpoints staying in the mid 70s. This
combination will yield heat indices of 100-105 for portions of the
area with higher elevations staying in the 80s to 90s. For this
reason, a Heat Advisory is in effect from 11AM to 8PM today portions
of the I-95 corridor and southern MD.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be highest along and west
of the Blue Ridge, although a thunderstorm farther each cannot
be ruled out. Compared to previous days, storm coverage will be
less as dry air aloft and westerly winds inhibit severe
potential. That being said elevated DCAPE levels will continue
the threat of stronger convection producing downbursts.

Overnight low temperatures will be in the 60s west of the Blue
Ridge and 70s along and east of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Friday as a stalled
front remains nearby. Precipitation chances will be highest in
the southwestern portions of the forecast area due to being on
the warm side of the boundary. As the boundary drifts northward
on Saturday, precipitation chances increase to around 75%
across the forecast area. Both days, a warm and humid airmass
will lead to a severe weather threat with isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding possible.

High temperatures will be in the 80s for most both days with
higher elevations staying in the 70s. Overnight low temperatures
will be in the 60s for locations west of the Blue Ridge and 70s
for locations along and east of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure and an associated cold front will follow a warm
front across the CWA on Sunday into Sunday night. Humidity in
the region again will fuel showers and a few thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon and evening. Highs Sunday could reach the lower
90s.

The cold front will make its way south across southern VA and
northern NC Monday. High pressure will build to the north of the
front and north of our CWA as well. Most shower and thunderstorm
chances should stay across our southern zones Monday afternoon and
evening. Much of the northern areas should be dry or at least have a
slight chance of showers. Highs in the upper 80s.

High pressure will try to nudge farther south Tuesday and Wednesday.
Thus, perhaps we will have minimal chances of showers anywhere or
even a full dry day if conditions are right. Highs upper 80s to
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Gusty southwest winds are expected across the terminals today with
winds gusting 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Winds shift to
westerly overnight, blowing 5 to 10 knots across the terminals.
Winds are expected to be light and variable on Friday before
shifting southerly on Saturday, blowing 5 to 10 knots in the
afternoon.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected across all terminals today,
although an isolated thunderstorm remains possible under hot and
humid conditions. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible on
Friday with flight restrictions expected during convection.

VFR conditions for the most part Sunday through Monday night. Some
shower and thunderstorm activity could bring brief MVFR conditions
Sunday afternoon and evening at any terminal, while there is a
better chance for CHO on Monday afternoon. Winds southwest becoming
northwest 5 to 10 knots Sunday into Sunday night. Winds becoming
north then northeast 5 to 10 knots Monday and Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the waters until 6PM
this evening with southwest winds 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 20
knots expected. Outside of SCA conditions, there is a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. SMWs may be
needed, mainly in the northern portions of the waters.

Winds decrease Friday and Saturday with SMWs remaining possible
during afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

No marine hazards Sunday through Monday night. There could be an
occasional Special Marine Warning for parts of the Potomac River or
Chesapeake Bay Sunday afternoon and evening with any convection.
Winds southwest becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots Sunday and Sunday
night. Winds becoming north to northeast 10 knots Monday into Monday
night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southerly winds will lead to elevated tidal anomalies through
the end of the week. Annapolis is forecast to near Action Stage
during high tide cycle tomorrow morning. Otherwise, the threat
for tidal flooding appears low.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for DCZ001.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for MDZ008.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-508.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ053>055-057-527.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ530-535-536-538-539-542.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ530.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ531>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...AVS/KLW
MARINE...AVS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX