964
FXUS61 KLWX 281845
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
245 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nothing.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Tranquil weather is expected through the middle of the week
      with climbing temperatures.

- 2) A cold front will approach on Friday, leading to cooler and
     potentially unsettled weather for the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Tranquil weather is expected through the middle
of the week with climbing temperatures.

Low overcast will persist through tonight with some spotty
drizzle here and there. Some patchy fog is possible west of the
Blue Ridge Mountains, but widespread low clouds will likely
prevent fog from becoming dense and/or widespread. Residual
moisture may remain trapped beneath the subsidence inversion
with weak gradients on Tuesday, although deeper mixing will
likely support more breaks of sun.

With ridging building in at the sfc and aloft and light sfc
winds, pattern will become more conducive for fog development,
if skies clear enough. This appears more likely to happen late
Tue night into Wed morning.

Temperatures will climb further Wednesday and Thursday, with
more locations reaching the 80s. Some spots could even reach the
upper 80s by Thursday. Developing southerly flow will lead to
more sunshine. Dry weather is expected both days. With light
winds and elevated dew points, some patchy fog could form during
the overnight hours.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will approach on Friday, leading to
cooler and potentially unsettled weather for the weekend.

Surface high pressure begins to slide offshore Thursday into Friday.
Above-normal temperatures likely persist into Friday afternoon with
temperatures approaching the upper-80s as upper-level ridging slowly
breaks down ahead of an incoming cold front from the Great Lakes.
This front could slowly begin to pass through the Mid-Atlantic by
Friday evening before stalling just off to the south.

This front could potentailly linger throughout the weekend before
finally pushing offshore towards the start of next week. This will
lead to a much cooler weekend overall, along with chances for
intermittent showers as the front lingers over the Mid-
Atlantic. Rainfall probabilities remain lower (20%-40%) at this time
given the weak nature of the front and remaining uncertainty in the
model guidance. As this front pushes offshore, conditions could
begin to clear early next week, with daily highs returning to the
60s and lower 70s in the wake of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR cigs will persist into the early evening before improving
back to VFR later tonight. Northwest winds will generally
remain less than 10 kt.

Guidance suggests MVFR ceilings or some patchy fog if there are
breaks could develop at MRB overnight. Otherwise VFR conditions
are expected.

High pressure will provide tranquil weather for Tuesday through
Thursday. The only potential impacts would be from early morning
fog (greatest chances at MRB and CHO).

Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated at terminals through
Friday and Saturday. A cold front could bring some showers on
Friday, which could bring brief periods of reduced CIGs. Otherwise,
southerly winds shift northerly by Saturday morning, with gusts
staying below 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure moving toward the area will provide light winds
Tuesday and Wednesday. A northwesterly direction will turn
southerly on Wednesday.

Southerly winds begin to pick up in strength on Thursday, with some
channeling effects bringing gusts to near 20 knots over the more
southern waters.

A passing cold front could bring wind gusts up to marginal SCA
thresholds Friday and into Saturday. Winds shift northerly
by Friday evening.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Some uncertainty exists for the remainder of the week as
guidance indicates anomalies will stagnate close to 1 foot above
normal. As long as it stays near this value, most locations
should remain below minor flood thresholds. However, Annapolis
could have minor flooding for some tide cycles depending on how
exactly the water levels fluctuate.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/SRT
MARINE...ADS/LFR/SRT