965
FXUS61 KLWX 020732
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
232 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Benign weather continues through Wednesday morning with near to
slightly above normal temperatures expected. Much needed rain
chances arrive Thursday and Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Remaining dry and seasonable through Wednesday with rain
  chances returning late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry and seasonable through Wednesday with
rain chances returning late week.

Fair weather conditions are expected to continue through at least
Wednesday morning as broad 1032-1034 mb high pressure meanders
offshore. The surface high pressure system will sit off the Delmarva
coast today before pushing further out into the western Atlantic
Tuesday and Wednesday. Ridging will remain stationary over the
region during this time with widespread subsidence and southerly
return flow boosting temperatures above seasonable norms, especially
during the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe. Moisture advection will
gradually increase tonight and again Tuesday night yielding the
potential for patchy fog on both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
Outside of the fog, no hazardous weather is expect until late week.

Passing high clouds will remain prevalent today as a shortwave
disturbance passes to the south. This will yield highs in the mid to
upper 60s for most outside the southern Shenandoah Valley where
temperatures will be slightly cooler due to cloud cover. Mostly
sunny skies return Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Mid 70s are expected Wednesday with incrsng clouds from the south
and west given an incumbent trough of low pressure/cold front
approaching from the Mid-South/Ohio River Valley.

Much needed rain chances finally return Thursday into Friday as the
surface ridge buckles and an incumbent upper level trough pushes
east from the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley. At the surface, is a
wave of low pressure and cold front that will eject from the mid-
Mississippi River Valley into the central Appalachians Thursday and
off the northern Delmarva/southern NJ coast Friday into Saturday. As
a result, expect increased cloud cover Wednesday afternoon and
evening with rain chances arriving from the west late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. Widespread showers are expected through
Thursday with a potential squeegee line feature (i.e embedded t-
storms) Thursday afternoon and evening. The threat for severe
weather appears to be low, but not zero. This will be something to
monitor in the coming days given the track of the resultant surface
low, presentation of the trough, and timing of the cold front as it
passes through. Additional showers are possible Friday the front
works east and a secondary wave of low pressure pushes along the
coast. Rainfall amounts will range between 0.50-1.25" with locally
higher totals along the mountains. Amounts have trended downward in
the recent model runs with probabilities for an inch of rain
areawide sitting less than 25 percent. Even with that said, any rain
will be much needed given subtle drought expansion from our recent
2+ week dry spell.

Additional rain chances area possible Monday & Tuesday next week as
a stronger cold front and area of low pressure move into the region.
Temperatures will cool to more seasonable conditions as these fronts
pass, with highs in the mid-60s and lows in the 40s at the start of
next week. Conditions become drier towards the middle of next week
as the trough transitions offshore.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday
evening with high pressure meandering nearby. Passing high clouds
are expected today as a shortwave disturbance passes south of the
region. Dry conditions will prevail with any showers/sprinkles
remaining south of ROA/CHO/SHD this morning. Clouds will become
scattered to broken tonight with pockets of patchy fog in the river
valleys and at terminals close to the tidal Potomac/Chesapeake Bay.
This leaves us with a narrow window for sub-VFR cigs/vsbys between 9-
13z Tuesday morning at terminals roughly from a line extending from
PHL-BWI-DCA-RIC points east. Confidence in fog development is low
given light onshore south/southeast flow. Better moisture advection
arrives Tuesday night leading to higher probabilities for fog in
these aforementioned locations. Outside of the fog, no significant
impacts to aviation are expected heading into midweek. Winds will
remain light out of the south/southeast today through Tuesday at
less than 15 kts.

Widespread sub-VFR conditions are increasingly likely Thursday and
Friday as low pressure and a strong cold front push across the
region. Periods of rain are expected both days leading to lowering
cigs and vsbys. Winds will remain out of the south and southeast at
less than 15 kts through Thursday. High pressure returns for the
weekend with a stronger front and wave of low pressure early next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are expected through Wednesday morning. Winds will
remain light out of the south and southeast today through Wednesday
as high pressure pushes offshore. By Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning, expect the potential for southerly channeling due to the
high offshore and incumbent trough from the Ohio River Valley.
Confidence in this occurring is low with a focus over the open
waters.

Low pressure and a strong cold front will work across the waters
Thursday into Friday. Widespread showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon. Winds will remain near
or just below SCA levels both days with gusts under 20 kts. High
pressure returns into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EST
AVIATION...KRR/EST
MARINE...KRR/EST