701
FXUS61 KLWX 281803
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
203 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and cooler than normal temperatures will continue
through this evening with high pressure nearby. A mainly dry cold
front will cross the region Friday with high pressure set to return
for the holiday weekend into the early part of next week. Rain
chances do not look to return until this time next week as another
cold front crosses the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered cumulus dot the Mid-Atlantic as of mid afternoon. The
cumulus field is notably less dense than the past couple of days
given dry air and subsidence in the wake of a mid-level wave
that crossed the region this morning.

A stout mid/upper wave and associated surface cold front will
approach the region tonight. The mid-level wave axis will likely
outpace the surface front, so other than increased clouds it is
unlikely there will be much in the way of any precipitation. The
best chance for a few sprinkles may be (1) over the Appalachians
aided by upslope, and (2) east of the Blue Ridge where there may
be a slightly higher amount of moisture (though still relatively
dry overall). Winds will gradually shift from S/SW to W/NW from
west to east through the night. The clouds and steady/light wind
may keep much of the area from radiating too much, but a few
breaks in the clouds and/or decoupling could result in localized
sheltered valley locations dipping below the current projected
low temperatures which generally run from the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will push across the region Friday into Friday
evening. A couple light showers/sprinkles could accompany the
front during this period, but confidence in measurable precip is
too low to include in the forecast. Highs will be similar to
today, if not a few degrees milder. Temperatures Friday night
will become cooler than tonight with cool air advection behind
the front. Lows Friday night could get as cold as the upper 30s
in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Not too much of a change in the extended period with wedging high
pressure nearby and low pressure remaining down toward the southeast
U.S. coast. The forecast will remain mostly dry outside of a
spotty shower or thunderstorm across the Allegheny Highlands of
VA and central Blue Ridge. This is due in part to a residual
inverted trough laying in the vicinity of the Alleghenies and
Appalachians as well as light onshore east to northeasterly
upslope flow against the mountains. Outside of the
aforementioned locations above, dry conditions look to prevail
as high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes builds south. The
surface high pressure system will wedge itself down the eastern
face of the Appalachians Monday into Tuesday as it jogs eastward
into northern New England.

Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will remain well to our south
along a stalled boundary over the southeast U.S. The progression of
this low pressure system to the north will be halted by the wedge
through at least Tuesday before an advancement north and east off
the South Carolina coast by the middle of the workweek. As of now,
no impact is expected from this system in the local area outside of
some shower activity mainly out toward the southern Delmarva and
perhaps lower northern neck of VA Wednesday afternoon. Additional
shower and thunderstorm chances are possible west of the Blue Ridge
Wednesday afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts in from the
west and a cold front approaches from the Ohio River Valley.

More scattered to widespread rain chances look to hold off until
Thursday and Friday as the cold front slowly pushes through the
region. Rain will be needed at this point especially with many
locations rounding out the month of August as the driest on record.
Current 12z guidance does diverge a bit on the progression of the
front during the Thursday and Friday timeframe. Both the GFS/ECMWF
and their ensemble members are in agreement with a slower
progression of the front as high pressure releases its grip
north of the region. Leaned toward a blend of solutions with a
front favored to approach Thursday then pass Friday. As for the
threat of severe weather, it remains low. CSU probabilities do
highlight 5-15 percent probabilities Thursday into Friday with
CIPS/NSSL probabilities sitting around 10 percent. If severe
weather were to occur it would be in the form of wind and hail
given the drastically cooler airmass behind the front.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal throughout the second
half of the weekend into much of next week. Expect highs in the
mid 70s low 80s and lows in the 50s. Mountain locations will be
a touch cooler in the upper 60s and low 70s with lows in the
40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through Friday night. Increasing
mid-level clouds are likely at times as a cold front crosses
the region through Friday. The front is expected to come through
mainly dry, with a wind shift from south to northwest slowly
progressing from west to east this evening through early Friday.

VFR conditions are expected to continue this weekend into early
next week with wedging high pressure nearby. There are some
hints at the potential for sub-VFR CIGs during the late evening
and early morning hours Saturday through Tuesday mainly at
terminals south of KMRB and west of KCHO. This is due in part to
increased onshore easterly upslope flow.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return late next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly channeling is expected tonight. Wind gusts of 15 to
25 knots are most likely, gradually diminishing after midnight.
Winds will shift to the northwest late as a (mainly dry) cold
front crosses. North to northwest winds could approach SCA
levels Friday afternoon/night.

No marine hazards are expected through the weekend and into
early next week. Sub-SCA level north to northeast winds are
expected through Sunday before turning easterly Monday as high
pressure wedges in from the north. Sub-SCA level winds continue
through Wednesday as high pressure remains nearby.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southerly flow ahead of a cold front may drive water levels
close to minor flooding at Annapolis this evening. The flow
should be brief enough to preclude flooding elsewhere, though
the typically more vulnerable spots will have to be monitored.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Friday
     for ANZ530-536>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ531>534-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/EST
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX