772
FXUS61 KLWX 241920
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
220 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore tonight. Low pressure will
track into the Great Lakes tomorrow into the day Wednesday,
causing a strong cold front to move through the area Wednesday
afternoon. High pressure will build back in for the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure is centered overhead this afternoon. Skies are
mostly sunny and winds are light as a result. Temperatures have
climbed into the upper 50s to near 60, and are nearing high
temperatures for the day.

High pressure will move offshore tonight, causing winds to
become light out of the south to southeast. Meanwhile, a
shortwave trough will track eastward from the Plains toward the
Mississippi Valley. High cloud cover will increase ahead of this
disturbance over the course of the night. The vast majority of
the region is expected to remain dry overnight, but a stray
shower or two could reach the Alleghenies just prior to
daybreak. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to be in the
upper 30s and lower 40s for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned shortwave trough will continue to lift
northeastward through the Ohio Valley over the course of the
day tomorrow. As large scale ascent increases ahead of this
feature showers will gradually overspread the area from west to
east. Showers may be possible to the west of the Blue Ridge at
any point during the day tomorrow, but the bulk of the activity
should hold off until the afternoon and evening hours to the
east of the Blue Ridge. High temperatures tomorrow are forecast
to be in the 50s and lower 60s.

Showers will continue on and off through the night tomorrow
night. Some embedded rumbles of thunder may also be possible as
some weak elevated instability starts to build in aloft.
Overall, rainfall totals are expected to be on the lighter side,
with most locations receiving around a tenth to a quarter of an
inch of rain. These rainfall totals should be beneficial, given
ongoing drought conditions across much of the area.
Temperatures will either hold steady in the 50s or rise slightly
overnight.

A mid-level dry slot will move in aloft for Wednesday morning,
causing most of the shower activity to wind down. Most of the
day Wednesday should remain dry, although a brief passing shower
or two will remain possible. Temperatures will climb to near
record values for late November, with many locations making it
into the lower 70s. The warmth will be short lived however, with
a strong cold front moving through late Wednesday afternoon.
Strong cold advection will ensue in the wake of the front
Wednesday night, with temperatures dropping into the 20s
(Alleghenies) and 30s (further east). It will also be windy
behind the front, with gusts to near Wind Advisory criteria
possible in the mountains. Further east, less intense gusts of
20-35 mph may be possible through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry conditions continue Thursday through Saturday as surface high
pressure builds over the mid-atlantic. A tight pressure gradient
between high pressure to our southwest and low pressure to the north
will yield gusty winds on Thursday with winds gusting 15 to 20 knots
(30 to 40 knots mtns) in the afternoon. As high pressure continues to
settle overhead, winds diminish Friday with light winds expected
beginning Friday night and into Saturday. High temperatures will be
in the 30s and low 40s each day with highest elevations staying in
the 20s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s
across the forecast area.

On Sunday, precipitation chances increase across the area as high
pressure shift offshore and return flow ushers in increased
moisture. A slight chance to chance of precipitation is expected
Sunday afternoon with below freezing temperatures in the mountains
leading to possible light snow showers. Little to now accumulation
is expected as snow transitions to rain as temperatures warm above
freezing in the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 40s for
most with overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions and light winds are expected this afternoon.
Conditions will remain VFR with light southerly winds tonight.
Ceilings will slowly lower through the day tomorrow, with
showers moving in from west to east. Ceilings are expected to
drop to MVFR by late tomorrow afternoon, and should stay low-end
MVFR/high-end IFR through much of the night Tuesday night and
into Wednesday morning. A strong cold front will move through
Wednesday afternoon, leading to a return to VFR conditions and
gusty west to northwest winds.

VFR conditions are expected across all terminals Thursday and Friday
as surface high pressure builds over the area. West/northwest winds
blowing around 10 knots on Thursday will gust 15 to 25 knots in the
afternoon and through the overnight. Northwest winds gust up to 30
knots across the terminals Friday morning before diminishing through
the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are light and variable over the waters this afternoon.
Winds will shift to out of the south later this evening as high
pressure moves offshore. Southerly winds will remain light
through tomorrow morning, before picking up during the afternoon
hours. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Bay and
Lower Tidal Potomac late tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow
night. SCA conditions will likely continue through much of the
day Wednesday within southerly flow. A strong cold front will
move through the area late Wednesday afternoon, causing wind to
shift to out of the west to northwest. High-end SCA gusts are
expected behind the front Wednesday night, with a few low-end
Gale gusts not entirely out of the question.

Northwest winds gust 20 to 30 knots over the Chesapeake Bay Thursday
and Friday with Small Craft Advisories likely. Winds gust 15 to 20
knots over the tidal Potomac with advisories possible. Winds
diminish below advisory criteria across all waters Friday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/KJP
MARINE...AVS/KJP