079
FXUS61 KLWX 022054
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
354 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rainfall amounts later this week continue to trend downward.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Remaining dry with above normal temperatures, then some
  rain possible late this week into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry with above normal temperatures,
then some rain possible late this week into early next week.

Current satellite as of 3 PM shows a mid-level stratus deck in
place across the bulk of the forecast area, but there are some
breaks in spots. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid
60s where the cloud cover is thicker, and upper 60s to low 70s
where there have been more breaks of sun. Winds this afternoon are
generally light out of the south. Clouds are expected to trend
downward in coverage slightly overnight, but there will still
be passing clouds here and there. Overnight lows tonight are
forecast to be in the 40s.

Upper ridging will build overhead tomorrow as high pressure
remains in place offshore. Dry conditions and above normal
temperatures are forecast beneath a mixture of clouds and sun.
High temperatures will generally be in the lower to middle 70s,
and winds will remain light out of the south. Patchy fog may be
possible tomorrow night, with lows in the upper 40s to lower
50s.

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will persist
through the daylight hours on Wednesday. High temperatures will
once again reach well into the 70s, and winds will begin to pick
up slightly out of the south. Mostly sunny skies are expected to
start the day, but high clouds will be on the increase during
the afternoon and evening hours in advance of an upper trough
approaching from the west. A shortwave disturbance embedded
within the broader trough will lift northeastward through the
Great Lakes Sunday night. This system has trended further
northwest and a bit further away from the area, but a few
showers could still be possible by later Wednesday night.

The synoptic pattern across the eastern CONUS becomes much more
active at the end of this week, through the weekend, and into early
next week. A series of large upper troughs over the Midwest are
forecast to steadily push north and east toward the Mid-Atlantic.
One notable change over the last several model cycles is that the
initial upper trough does not pass directly through our area,
instead slides northeast across the OH Valley into PA. A weaker
shortwave ahead of the main trough does cross our region Thursday,
and this likely brings at least scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. However, given that the strongest upper level support
now remains north of our area, we probably won`t be getting a lot of
precipitation like earlier models run depicted. Above normal
temperatures likely to end the week as highs reach the upper 60s to
mid 70s. More abundant cloud cover on Friday keeps temps a few
degrees lower than Thursday.

The secondary upper trough and an associated cold front dig into the
Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon into Friday night. However, it appears
this second system will be rather progressive and models indicate
the surface reflection "skipping" the Alleghenies, then redeveloping
east of I-95. If that occurs we`ll see little precip outside of the
mountains. Another hindering signal is models indicate a potential
dry slot ahead of the cold front, which also cuts down on how much
shower activity can develop.

Most of the mid-level vorticity associated with this second upper
trough cuts off over the central Great Lakes Friday night into
Saturday, then pushes well to our north/east Sunday. Given the
recent trends in the evolution of the synoptic pattern late this
week, the NBM PoPs are likely way too high for Thursday and Friday.

Looking ahead at Sunday into early next week, the active pattern
brings another strong trough to the region Sunday night into Monday.
This system is forecast to be much larger than the previous two, and
bring colder air in its wake. Periods of showers are possible at
times on Monday, though model timing varies so this could change in
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions and light southerly winds will
continue through Wednesday. Some patchy fog could be possible in
spots Tuesday night. Prevailing VFR conditions and southerly
winds likely continue into Thursday, but showers or
thunderstorms could lead to sub- VFR conditions at times. Winds
are forecast to shift to out of the west on Friday, with a
return to VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level southerly winds are expected both today and
tomorrow with high pressure in place offshore. Winds will remain
out of the south for Wednesday and Thursday, but gusts could
near low-end SCA levels during that time. Sub-SCA conditions are
expected to continue on Friday as winds shift to out of the
west.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KJP/KRR
AVIATION...KJP
MARINE...KJP