409
FXUS61 KLWX 301442
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1042 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisory was expanded to all waters today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Showers and thunderstorms return to the area during the
  second half of the weekend and potentially lingering into
  early next week.

- 2) Primarily dry conditions through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms return to the area
during the second half of the weekend and potentially lingering
into early next week.

Ensemble guidance advances a strong upper level trough from the
Great Lakes into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday and into
Monday. This cut off low pressure system and associated cold
front brings increasing chances for showers and a few t-storms
in our area through Monday. Shear and instability values seem
low due to weak winds aloft and widespread cloudiness, so severe
threat appears very low. Rainfall amounts of half to one inch
spaced over a long period of time mean this rainfall would be
largely beneficial and should not cause any flooding concerns.

Continuing into Tuesday and Wednesday, this cold front may to stall
out to the the south of our area. Thus, showers and a few t-storms
could linger into the later half of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Primarily dry conditions through Saturday.

Upper level low pressure is spinning over southern New England
today, while a surface low moves off Cape Cod. The gradient
between this low and high pressure in the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley is resulting in another day of gusty northwest winds.
Water vapor imagery is showing deeper moisture with the upper
low is pulling to the east. Even so, some models still show
another spoke of energy rotating southward this afternoon and
evening, perhaps producing a few showers across northeastern
Maryland. The current forecast is dry, and am not convinced
there is a high enough chance of rain to add it to the forecast.
RH forecasts do suggest cumulus or altocumulus clouds may
increase across the northeastern quadrant of the CWA this
afternoon. Temperatures will remain seasonable or slightly below
normal through tonight, when lighter winds may allow rural
areas to decouple. Highs this afternoon are generally in the
80s, with lows tonight from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The surface high will reach the area Friday. Shortwave ridging
will approach from the west as the upper low departs New England.
Dry conditions are expected with high temperatures closer to
climatology in the mid 80s to near 90 and lows in the 60s to
around 70.

Temperatures may warm a couple more degrees Saturday as the high
moves off the coast and increasing southerly flow develops.
Clouds will likely start increasing as low pressure at the
surface and aloft moves into the Ohio Valley. There is some
uncertainty with how quickly rain chances arrive. Some showers
could reach the Alleghenies as early as Saturday afternoon, but
will become increasingly probable Saturday night. Much of the
area, especially east of the Blue Ridge, may remain dry until
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Northwest
winds will gust 20 to 25 kt through this afternoon (lighter at
CHO). Broken cumulus or altocumulus may affect BWI and MTN this
afternoon. Winds will diminish with sunset and remain light
through Friday as high pressure moves overhead.

Southerly flow may become gusty Saturday afternoon. Showers
along with sub-VFR ceilings may reach CHO and MRB Saturday
night, but confidence is low.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible across all terminals
Sunday with flight restrictions possible during precipitation.
Winds remain light out of the south/southeast.

On Monday, precipitation chances linger across all terminals
with the highest chances at KCHO. Flight restrictions are
possible during precipitation. Winds blow out of the northeast
before becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds gusts of 20 to 25 knots are occurring today
with Small Craft Advisories in effect now for all waters until 6
PM. Winds should diminish this evening and remain light Friday
as high pressure moves overhead. On Saturday, wind shifts to
southerly with advisories likely by afternoon.

SCA criteria winds continue Sunday with showers and
thunderstorms leading to possible SMWs in the afternoon.
Winds remain below SCA criteria on Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain steady through the end of the week with
sensitive tidal locations remaining in Action stage during the
high tide cycles. This weekend, tidal anomalies rise with
southerly winds. Annapolis is forecast to approach Minor flood
stage as early as Saturday morning.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/KVH
AVIATION...ADS
MARINE...ADS