774
FXUS61 KLWX 152004
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
304 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross the region tonight into Sunday
leading to another round of gusty winds. A secondary front will
follow Sunday night before high pressure briefly returns Monday.
Low pressure will approach from the west Tuesday into the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will push through the region tonight before exiting
the region early Sunday. The front should bring showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm to parts of the area overnight. Rain
amounts will light, while most places downwind of the
Appalachians and areas across the Piedmont may not see any
precipitation. Winds and fire weather concerns will be the
bigger factors through Sunday. There is currently a Wind
Advisory in effect for western Grant and western Pendleton
Counties. Additional Wind Advisories have been issued a few
hours ago for a larger area for much of the day Sunday into
Sunday evening. This area is the remainder of the Appalachians,
including the eastern half of Allegany County in MD. West-
northwest to northwest winds will increase quickly behind
frontal passage on Sunday into Sunday evening. Gusts of 40 to 50
mph are likely in many places with the strongest winds at
highest elevations. Along with gusty winds will be available
fuel moistures and dry air that will take dewpoint temperatures
quite low and open the door for fire weather concerns. There is
currently a Fire Weather Watch for a large area from eastern
Grant, Pendleton and Highland Counties and areas east to the
Chesapeake Bay but not as far north as I-70 across central MD.
Temperatures tonight could hold steady or fall just a few
degrees up to frontal passage, then values will fall more
quickly the remainder of the night and through the day on
Sunday. If we encounter more sun than clouds much of the morning
with the downsloping winds, then temperatures may bump up a few
degrees late Sunday morning before continuing their downward
trend into late in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Winds are expected to diminish through Sunday night, although it
may remain breezy in many locations. Sunday night`s temperatures
should continue to fall a few degrees per hour and bring values
to below average numbers by early Monday morning.

Monday is expected to be a dry day with high pressure building
into the region. A gusty breeze could pick back up during the
heart of the day. Winds could gust 25 to 35 mph. Winds should
finally diminish Monday night as high pressure moves overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A deamplifying, fast moving shortwave trough will slide eastward
from the central Plains Tuesday. The timing is trending toward
afternoon and evening. However, if precipitation were to start early
enough, some light wintry precipitation would be possible in the
mountains, but for most it will just be a chilly rain. Clouds will
likely hold daytime temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

The predominant piece of the Canadian high finally slides
southeastward Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a shortwave ridge
aloft. At the same time, there could be a lingering frontal zone
behind the disturbance near or just south of the area. The jet
stream will be active, and the next trough may eject out of the
desert southwest toward the end of the week. There should be some
dry time in here, but clouds could outweigh the sun. The next chance
of rain could arrive as early as Thursday or as late as Saturday,
depending on whether disturbance track along the front. There`s also
a large range of potential temperatures depending on the frontal
zone, but a general warming trend should occur through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front could bring a few showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder to MRB late this afternoon and to IAD, DCA, BWI and MTN
tonight. Some LLWS over a few northern terminals with the rapid
change in winds with cold frontal passage. Winds will gust
around 15-20 knots, though gusts may be occasional given
reduced diurnal mixing. Once the cold front crosses, an uptick
in wind gusts is likely.

Blustery conditions are expected on both Sunday and Monday with
a relative minimum during the overnight hours. An initial wave
of gusts is possible (25-35 knots) Sunday morning in the wake of
the cold front and as diurnal mixing increases. Gusts may level
off a bit before increasing again later in the day into the
early evening as a secondary front surges through. Gusts to
around 40 knots may be possible during this time. Monday will be
breezy as well with 20-30 knot gusts likely. All of this is out
of a west to northwest direction. High pressure building in
Monday night will cause winds to become much lighter.

A period of sub-VFR ceilings and rain is possible Tuesday or Tuesday
night as a quick moving disturbance passes. Uncertainty increases
Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds to the north and a
frontal zone potentially lingers near by. Sub-VFR ceilings are
possible if onshore flow develops.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front will move through the waters tonight and
Sunday. Small craft advisories for all waters will soon become
Gale Warnings as we enter into Sunday and persist much of the
day. SCA gusts likely linger especially over the wider waters
Sunday night. Additional breezy conditions are likely Monday,
and could approach gale force again. Winds subside Monday night.

Tuesday through Thursday should have sub-SCA conditions as high
pressure builds to the north. Some rain is possible Tuesday as a
quick disturbance passes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for adjacent areas to the west
of the Shenandoah Valley and areas east to the Chesapeake Bay
and north to almost I-70 Sunday.

Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds are expected Sunday in
the wake of this cold frontal passage. Additionally, humidities
will once again drop significantly as drier air moves in. Even
drier conditions are expected Monday with a bit less in terms of
wind. There could still be a fire weather threat on Monday given
the dry conditions and breezy conditions.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for DCZ001.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
     for MDZ008.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night for
     MDZ008.
     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for MDZ013-014-016>018-503>506.
     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for MDZ501-502-509-
     510.
VA...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-
     504>508-526-527.
     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for VAZ503-504.
WV...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for WVZ050-053-055-502-506.
     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for WVZ502>504-506.
     Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday for
     WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ530>543.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night for
     ANZ530>533-537-539>541.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ534-
     543.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ535-536-538-
     542.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW/DHOF
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
FIRE WEATHER...KLW