101
FXUS61 KLWX 081954
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
254 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will move into the area tonight and Tuesday.
A quick moving clipper system will pass through the Great Lakes
Wednesday. A secondary cold front follows suit on Thursday. Yet
another fast moving frontal system may reach the area Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Northeasterly winds around Canadian high pressure continue to advect
very dry air into the area, with dew points now in the single digits
across the northern half of the area. This dry air continues to
slowly eat away at the shield of snow, with lower visibilities now
confined to the far southwestern part of the CWA. Rates haven`t been
too heavy, so lower elevation road impacts appear to be fairly
minimal. Still would expect peak amounts, perhaps locally in the 4
to 6 inch range, along the ridges from Highland to Nelson (coldest
temperatures and longest duration of snow). Some guidance lingers
snow into the early evening along the I-64 corridor. However, the
shortwave trough axis will be moving east, and low levels will
continue to dry out. Doubt there will be much additional
accumulation after 5 PM or so. High temperatures occurred in most
areas early this morning, with temperatures continuing to fall the
remainder of the day.

The surface high will move overhead tonight. Winds will likely
become light to calm, although there will be some residual low level
flow given the narrow/elongated orientation of the high. Clouds may
also hang around until the second half of the night. Even without
maximized radiational cooling, the cold advection and very low dew
points will still allow most areas to drop into the teens. The urban
cores and bayshore will stay in the lower 20s. Some of the colder
valleys could drop into the single digits, especially where there is
snow pack. Any residual moisture or slush will likely freeze on
untreated surfaces.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high will slide off to the south and east Tuesday.
Despite return flow by afternoon, cold air will remain in place,
with most areas staying in the 30s during the day. Dry weather is
expected, although a shortwave trough aloft will increase mid and
high level clouds.

The pressure gradient will tighten Tuesday night as a clipper-type
low moves into the Great Lakes. This could bring gusts into the 30
to 40 mph range on the ridges, and keep a light southerly wind in
place in the lower elevations. Clouds will also continue to
thicken. However, it may not be enough to stop the temperatures
from dropping back into the 20s. Some precipitation may
approach from the west but most likely holds off until after
sunrise. Most of the warm advection precipitation will remain
along and west of the Allegheny front, although some models
bring some light precipitation across northern parts of the
area. There is a small chance this could be a wintry mix if it
starts early enough. Otherwise it would just be rain as
temperatures rise into the 40s with gusty south-southwest winds.
Even in the Alleghenies, temperatures will likely rise above
freezing in most spots, which may result in some rain mixing at
times, and any snow accumulations limited to the higher ridges.

The low will move into the St. Lawrence Valley Wednesday evening as
the mid and upper trough axis dives toward the region. Upslope
moisture will change fully to snow in the Alleghenies. There
remains some spread on how much moisture will be available, but at
least several inches of snow is probable. Winds will also increase,
potentially to near Wind Advisory caliber on the highest peaks.
Therefore some near-blizzard conditions can`t be ruled out. Wind
chill values will also drop into the 0 to 10 degree range in this
area. Winds won`t be quite as gusty in the lower elevations, and
little precipitation will spill east of the Alleghenies. Temperatures
will drop back into the mid 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term period will start off on Thursday with troughing along
the East Coast, ridging along the West Coast, and west-northwesterly
flow across much of the CONUS between those two features. A strong
area of low pressure is expected to track toward the Canadian
Maritimes on Thursday, with strong cold advection ensuing in its
wake over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A few snow showers may linger
to the west of the Allegheny Front, but dry conditions are expected
further east. It will be a chilly day, with high temperatures in the
30s and lower 40s for most (20s mountains). Winds may gust to around
20-30 mph out of the northwest, making it feel even colder.

West-northwesterly flow will continue aloft across much of the CONUS
to end the week. Guidance suggests that multiple clipper-like
systems may track toward the area out of Canada. Forecast spread
remains large with these systems, but at least the Alleghenies
should experience chances for snow. Further east, mainly dry
conditions are expected, but some snow could also be possible Friday
into Friday night depending on how those systems track. Guidance
favors well below normal temperatures, with highs likely struggling
to get out of the 30s this coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Snow continues to produce IFR conditions in CHO. While the snow may
continue until the 22-00Z time frame, continuing advection of
dry air will result in improving visibility and ceilings. Dry
weather and mid to high level ceilings continue into the evening
elsewhere. Northeasterly winds are already showing signs of
decreasing, with gustiness ceasing after sunset. As Canadian
high pressure builds in, winds turn light overnight.

VFR conditions continue for Tuesday and Wednesday. As high
pressure moves off the coast, winds shift to southerly on
Tuesday, picking up in intensity during the late afternoon to
evening period with gusts to around 15 to 20 knots. Further
upticks in wind are expected for Wednesday ahead of a fast
moving clipper-like system. Gusts up to 20 to 30 knots are
possible before winds shift to westerly late Wednesday behind
the associated cold front.

VFR conditions are expected on both Thursday and Friday. Winds will
be gusty out of the northwest on Thursday, and then lighter out of
the west on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
In the wake of a cold front, north to northeast winds have likely
peaked and will gradually decline through the remainder of the day.
Small Craft Advisories are in place through this evening for all
waters, and through tonight for the southern waters. High pressure
will slide across the area Tuesday, providing lighter winds
that will quickly become southerly. The gradient increases by
Tuesday evening as this high exits the coast. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be required for Tuesday night, especially
along the bay. Strong southerly winds continue Wednesday in
response to a quick-moving low pressure system in the Great
Lakes. Gusts up to 25 to 30 knots are possible this period. The
associated cold front will cross Wednesday night, while advisory
conditions will remain likely.

Small Craft Advisories appear likely on Thursday within
northwesterly flow. A few Gale gusts can`t be ruled out during that
time. Sub-SCA level westerly winds are expected on Friday but
will increase Friday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ008.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     VAZ025-026-036>038-503-504-507-508.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     WVZ505-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ532-533-
     540>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...ADS/KJP
MARINE...ADS/KJP