845
FXUS61 KLWX 110131 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
931 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure near Cape Cod will continue to move east further
offshore tonight. A powerful coastal low will develop off the
Southeast U.S. coast, then track northward up the East Coast
this weekend into early next week. A second area of high
pressure builds in toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

High clouds will continue to increase overnight supporting
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. Low clouds have temporarily
dissipated, but are expected to redevelop overnight on light
southeast winds. It will still remain dry overnight everywhere.
Lows tonight should not be as chilly as this morning with lows
in the mid 40s west of I-95. Areas west of the Blue Ridge
Mountains may still see some patchy frost develop overnight depending
on how far west the high clouds reach.

Previous afd...

High pressure off of the coast of New England will continue to
move away tonight. Light east to southeast winds will persist
through tonight. Dry conditions are expected with near average
nighttime temperatures in the 50s, primarily along and east of
I-95 and the upper 30s to low 40s west of the Blue Ridge, while
middle to upper 40s in between the areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A coastal low pressure system will take shape off of the
Southeast U.S. Coast tonight through midday Saturday, before
moving north along the Eastern Seaboard Saturday afternoon
through Sunday night. An occasional shower or sprinkles could
evolve Saturday into Saturday evening from southeast to
northwest across the region. A light to moderate steadier
rainfall could arrive in several bands overnight Saturday
through Sunday night as the coastal low gets closer to the mid-
Atlantic region and nearly stalls. Rain amounts could average 1
to 2 inches along and east of a line from Hagerstown to
Warrenton to Fredericksburg. To the west of this line, one-half
to three-quarters of an inch. The heaviest rainfall could reach
the 3 to 3.5 inch amounts in places. The interaction between
the departing area of high pressure off the New England Coast
and the coastal low pressure system will result in stronger
northeast winds to develop and persist through much of the
weekend. An elongated trough of low pressure, accompanied by a
few mid-level disturbances, will help to tighten the pressure
gradient Saturday through Sunday to result in stronger
northeasterly winds. Northeast winds will increase late Saturday
night through Sunday afternoon with sustained winds of 10 to 20
mph gusting 25 to 30 mph. Winds could gust 35 to 40 mph over
land within a several miles of the Chesapeake Bay shoreline. A
big uncertainty remains in the track and intensity of coastal
low, simultaneously, as it moves up the coast. Also, to make
matters even less certain, is the interaction or phasing of the
mid- level disturbances with the coastal low and the exact
location of that occurrence.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Breezy and wet conditions likely continue into Monday, and perhaps
even into the first half of Tuesday, as the coastal low meanders off
the Delmarva Peninsula before eventually pulling further offshore on
Tuesday.

There seems to be a decent amount of agreement that precipitation
should taper off by Tuesday afternoon as the low shift further to
the east. However, it remain close enough that winds may still
remain elevated for a couple days thereafter.

High pressure will then return to the region in the wake of this
storm system, bringing a return to mostly sunny skies and
temperatures in the 60s to low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through tonight. Winds southeast 5
to 10 knots. A coastal low develops along the Southeast U.S.
coast this weekend, then moves north along the Mid-Atlantic
coast through the start of next week. This is going to bring
showers, some steady rain, breezy conditions and likely sub-VFR
conditions Saturday evening through Sunday night.

Sub-VFR conditions are likely to continue on Monday and perhaps even
into the first half of the day on Tuesday as a strong area of low
pressure impacts the region, bringing rain and gusty winds. Winds
will shift from the NNW on Monday, and will be around 20-25 knots,
especially along/east of I-95 at MTN, BWI, and IAD.

Precipitation should come to an end by midday Tuesday, with VFR
conditions returning. Winds remain out of the north, and will remain
somewhat elevated (gusting to around 20 knots).

&&

.MARINE...
Winds southeast 10 to 15 knots through tonight. A coastal low
begins to develop off the Southeast U.S. coast over the weekend,
then tracks up the coast toward the Delmarva through the early
part of next week. This is going to bring a prolonged period of
hazardous marine conditions to all of the waters. A Gale Watch
is in effect for all the waters Saturday evening through Sunday
night. Frequent wind gusts of 35-45 knots are likely most of
Sunday, with occasional gusts around 50 knots possible. A Gale
Watch has been extended in time Monday morning and afternoon for
the central Chesapeake Bay and Lower Tidal Potomac.

Gale conditions will likely continue into Monday as well, which has
prompted extensions of the Gale Watch into that period in the
central and southern Chesapeake Bay waters and lower Tidal Potomac.
Waves during the peak winds of this event could be pretty
substantial, reaching heights of 4 to 7 feet over the wider waters
of the Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Winds southeast this afternoon will push tidal anomalies up,
likely bringing most locations to Action Stage during high tide
through this evening. Minor coastal flooding is forecast at
Annapolis this evening. Additional coastal flooding is likely
this weekend as a coastal low develops to our south and moves up
the East Coast.

Depending on the ultimate track of the low, potentially significant
coastal flooding could occur. However, there is a lot of uncertainty
in the forecast this far out, especially for Sunday into early next
week. It is possible that water remains trapped in the middle bay,
leading to coastal flooding from Annapolis southward, but tides
lower significantly in the northern bay.

On the back end of this system, strong N/NW winds could push tides
out rapidly, potentially leading to blowout conditions everywhere.
Low Water Advisories may need to be considered, but it is still a
bit too far out to be certain at this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for
     MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for
     ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW/KRR
SHORT TERM...KLW/KRR
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...LFR/CJL
MARINE...LFR/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...