242
FXUS61 KLWX 240219
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
919 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure builds over the mid-atlantic through Monday as
a low pressure system approaches from the west. A warm front lifts
through the forecast area on Tuesday ahead of a cold front pushing
through Wednesday. Surface high pressure returns for the end of the
week and through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
High pressure is located over the Ohio Valley this evening.
There is still a bit of westerly gradient, but winds are in the
process of becoming light to calm. Based on dew points, low
temperatures seem largely on track with the cold spots reaching
the upper 20s with many areas in the 30s. The strongest model signal
for fog is west of the Appalachians close to the center of the
high. However, can`t rule out some patchy fog in the western
valleys as skies should remain mostly clear through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure builds overhead on Monday with dry conditions,
mostly sunny skies, and light winds expected. Upper level ridging
centers to the north, yielding a mild weather pattern for the day.
High temperatures will be in the 50s for most with isolated
locations reaching the low 60s. Overnight low temperatures will be
in the 30s and 40s across the forecast area.

Cloud cover increases overnight and into Tuesday as an area of low
pressure tracks northeast from the southern plains towards the
forecast area. The associated warm front lifts north through the
region on Tuesday, bringing precipitation chances areawide beginning
Tuesday morning and persisting through the overnight. High
temperatures will be similar to Monday with highs in the 50s for
most. Isolated locations will rise into the low 60s with highest
elevations staying in the upper 40s. In the wake of the warm front,
overnight lows will be about 10 degrees warmer when compared to the
night prior. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 40s to
low 50s across the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main area of low pressure will be cutting across the Great Lakes
Wednesday with ensemble and deterministic guidance still hinting at
a secondary and weaker area of low pressure moving over the local
area. Rain chances contingent on frontal positions and exact low
track, but a wetting rain is likely for most locales (at least a
tenth of an inch). Probs beyond that are low. Given being in the
warm sector with southerly flow, there will be ample moisture to
work with and some instability. Therefore, cannot rule out a
thunderstorm especially given the modest shear. Highs Wednesday will
be in the 60s to low 70s, and the warmest of the entire forecast
period.

Potent UL trough will rotate through the Great Lakes Wednesday and
move eastward through the rest of the long term. This will bring a
significant pattern change for the holiday weekend with an
anomalously cold airmass. Given the wind trajectories being more
westerly, not expecting much in terms of upslope snow to end the
week. Gusty winds will be the main threat along with cooler
temperatures. Highs will likely remain in the 40s for most, and
below freezing in the Alleghenies. All areas will likely drop below
freezing Thursday night, with teens in the Alleghenies.

Surface high pressure will build across the area Friday and
Saturday. Precipitation chances are slim, but the jet stream
overhead and some warm/moist advection aloft may result in
increased cloud cover. Below normal temperatures will continue.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through Monday. Light
westerly winds are expected through Monday morning, becoming
south or southeast during the afternoon. Winds remain light
through Monday evening before slowly increasing on Tuesday, with
gusts reaching 15 - 20 knots in the afternoon. Additionally,
precipitation chances increase on Tuesday as high pressure
shifts offshore and southerly flow brings increased moisture.
Rain will likely bring flight restrictions to MVFR through
reduced visibilities and ceilings.

Sub-VFR ceilings and showers remain possible Wednesday as a cold
front cross the area. Gusty west winds will follow the frontal
passage, with some gusts of 20-30 kt possible Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect tonight for portions of the
Chesapeake Bay and lower Potomac in west-northwest flow behind a
front. So far, winds are not reaching criteria. Guidance does
suggest an uptick between 10 PM and 3 AM, so will leave advisory
in effect for now. Winds should diminish by sunrise. Winds
shift to southerly Monday afternoon as high pressure settles
over the waters. A warm front approaching the waters will lead
to rain and increased winds with additional small craft
advisories possible Tuesday afternoon and into the evening.

Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed late Wednesday
through Thursday as gusty west winds develop in the wake of a
cold front.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ531>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/CPB
MARINE...ADS/AVS/CPB