502
FXUS61 KLWX 080225
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
925 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area this evening with an upper
level low pressure system passing to the south late tonight into
Monday. Both of these systems could bring some light snow to
the mountains, the Virginia Piedmont, and to the I-64 corridor.
Brief high pressure builds again Tuesday before another area of
low pressure and series of fronts cross the area during the
middle to latter portions of the week. This brings renewed cold
air to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current surface and upper level analysis via satellite and 00z
RAOBs match up pretty well with the forecast regarding the
upcoming winter weather event across the Mid-Atlantic. At the
surface, low pressure is located over the Gulf of America, and
will have little impact on this system over our region. There is
also a cold front to our west that will push through tonight.
Aloft, central VA sits squarely in the right-entrance region of
a 150+ kt upper jet. This will be the feature to pay attention
to as we move into Monday.

For now though, focus is on the pesky area of freezing fog and
low clouds over the central VA Piedmont yet again. This started
over Charlottesville across to Lake Anna, and has quickly spread
north towards Manassas. The aforementioned cold front is allowing
for some warmer air to overrun relatively cooler ground
temperatures, along with leftover moisture form recent snowpack.
This is the perfect recipe for a rare advection fog setup across
the region. As the cold front sweeps through later tonight,
winds pick up and scour this out before daybreak.

Additionally, expecting the snow to get going just before
daybreak as the upper-level shortwave associated with the
aforementioned Gulf low lifts northeast into the region. Snow
will quickly spread from west to east across the region, but
mostly after daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Through much of Monday, the snow brought on by an upper-level
disturbance moving to the east will continue to be intermittent
at times to light and steady at other times. When it is all said
and done, snow accumulations are expected to be around 1 to 3
inches, with the lower end of the range along the US-33
corridor, and the higher end along the I-64 corridor. Isolated
higher amounts of 4 to 5 inches can`t be ruled out in the
central VA Blue Ridge, the higher elevations of the GW National
Forrest, as well as the higher elevations of Highland county,
VA. There is likely to be a very sharp gradient of accumulating
snow to practically nothing, which is due to the presence of
lots of dry air near the surface. There is still some
uncertainty where this line sets up when the event is over, but
the expectation at this time is that this stays well south of
I-66.

A potential Winter Commuter Hazard Statement is in effect for
areas generally around Fredericksburg. Some light snow may make
it up to generally between Manassas and down along the US-17
corridor through Fredericksburg. Amounts will be light, should
they occur, but will also occur during the morning rush hour
amidst very cold temperatures. This could lead to slick roads
during a very hazardous period for travel, especially on a
Monday morning.

High temperatures will mainly range from the upper 20s to mid
30s, with upper teens to mid 20s in the mountains on Monday.
These temperatures will be accompanied by a north-norteasterly
wind gust of 20 to 25 mph. Any light snow should exit the local
area by just after sunset.

A strong dome of high pressure will build in from the Great
Lakes Monday night. This will set the stages for a cold night
across the region. Northerly winds are forecast to diminish
into the night setting the stages for ample radiational cooling.
Temperatures should drop into the 10 to 20 degree range with
lower wind chills to near 0 across the mountains.

Another shortwave is expected to race across the Great Lakes and
mid-Atlantic regions on Tuesday. Increasing clouds expected and
with what little sunshine we receive, our temperatures will
remain on the cold side with highs in the 30s to low 40s, colder
in the mountains.

High pressure that will be in the area Monday night through
Tuesday will move offshore Tuesday evening. Some warm advection
precipitation will develop over western MD on Tuesday night.
This could be a mix of snow and rain. Temperatures will drop
into the middle 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Synoptically, broad upper level troughing remains in place across
the eastern CONUS with several reinforcing shortwave troughs set to
cross for the mid and late week period. The first series of low
pressure systems and associated frontal boundaries look to cross the
area late Tuesday night into Thursday morning. A warm front will
lift through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday while low
pressure exits off the New England coast. A secondary low pressure
system will eject out of the Great Lakes and toward northern Maine
Wednesday into Thursday dragging a cold front through the region.
Both systems appear limited in moisture with the risk of rain/Snow
showers, mainly confined to the mountains and portions of
northern/central MD. Temperatures Wednesday will warm into the mid
40s and low 50s (upper 30s mountains) with lows Wednesday night in
the upper 20s and mid 30s.

Upslope snow showers will linger across the Alleghenies through
Thursday before moisture is cutoff under west to southwest flow.
Additional moisture arrives with a secondary Arctic front that looks
to cross Thursday night into Friday. In additional to the front an
area of low pressure expect to track along the boundary from the
Tennessee River Valley and toward the Carolina/VA Tidewater region
during the same aforementioned timeframe. The combination of these
two systems could bring another round of impactful wintry weather to
the region. Uncertainty still remains as some guidance has backed
away on the development of this system while other guidance has a
more organized wave of energy pushing through. Confidence is still
low in regards to timing, intensity, and totals. Each of the
deterministic model solutions and their ensembles favor a quick
moving storms Friday into Saturday with another potent blast of cold
air in it`s wake. The GFS, ECMWF, GEFS, and EPC all have some snow
for the area while the GEM, RDPS, and CMCE do not. Of course these
models are subject to change and likely to flip-flop in the coming
days ahead. Will continue to monitor these changes and post
additional information at weather.gov/lwx/winter.

Highs Thursday will remain in the upper 30s and mid 40s with
lows Thursday night in the mid to upper 20s 20s outside the
mountains. Similar readings can be expected Friday with
temperatures crashing into the teens and 20s Friday night into
the wake of the front. 850 mb temps this weekend will plummet to
12 to 17 degrees C yielding highs below freezing on both
Saturday and Sunday (teens mountains).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Prior to Monday`s wintry event, impacting CHO, some dense fog
has also developed in the same areas we saw last night. Freezing
fog is being observed at CHO at this time, and likely will
through at least 09z until the cold front pushes through. This
is also drifting into northern VA quickly, and could impact IAD
and DCA shortly.

An upper disturbance riding along a cold front will bring light
snow to parts of southern Virginia and the Virginia Piedmont
areas. This includes the CHO terminal. Light snow could bring
down ceilings to MVFR and VSBYs to IFR mainly between 7am and
1pm. Otherwise, VFR conditions at the terminals. Gusty northerly
winds of 15 to 25 knots tonight into Monday. Winds diminish
Monday night as Canadian high pressure builds to the north. As
this high moves east, a southerly flow ensues for Tuesday with
afternoon gusts to around 15 to 20 knots. VFR conditions
continue in advance of the next weather maker arriving by mid-
week.

VFR conditions are expected Wednesday with a risk of rain showers,
mainly across the northern terminals (BWI, MTN, FDK, HGR). Light
snow possible late Thursday night into Friday evening, possibly rain
at CHO. Shifting winds Wednesday night with a frontal passage. Gusts
up to 30 kts remain possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will push southward tonight into Monday to allow
for gusty northerly winds to develop. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots
with this front later tonight into Monday morning. Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect for tonight through Monday evening.
Winds diminish Monday night as Canadian high pressure builds to
the north. Another ramp up is likely by Tuesday evening/night
given southerly channeling effects. Small Craft Advisories will
again be needed.

SCA conditions are likely with another front Wednesday into Thursday
and again Friday into Saturday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for MDZ008.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EST Monday for
     VAZ025-036-037-503-504-508.
     Freezing Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for VAZ036>039-050-
     051-056.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ530-
     531-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ532-533-540>542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ534-537-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL/KLW
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...KLW/CJL/EST
MARINE...KLW/EST