171
FNUS71 KLWX 171039
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for Bear Den Mtn...NPS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
539 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 EST on November 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
Today will feature very little if any cloud cover and breezy
northwest winds at the fire site. There will likely be a few hour
period from just after sunrise through late morning or midday
where winds may be slightly higher, especially at the top of the
ridgeline and just to the east. Winds during this time will likely
be sustained 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph.

Relative humidity will start out between 50 and 55 percent early
this morning, then drop rapidly to 20 to 25 percent by midday.
Relative humidity will remain low, bottoming out in the upper
teens during the mid afternoon hours, though winds will gradually
begin to subside. Still, frequent gusts of 20 to 25 mph are likely
until sunset.

Winds should drop to less than 10 mph by mid to late evening as RH
recovers to about 45 to 50 percent overnight. Chances for rain and
RH increase mid to late morning Tuesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 46.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 12 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 25
                    mph.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 18 mph shifting to the northwest 18
                    to 22 mph in the late morning and afternoon,
                    then decreasing to around 12 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 7 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   3   2   1   2   3   4   3   5   2   2   4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............33  33  34  36  38  41  43  44  45  45  44  43
RH..............47  45  43  35  31  26  23  22  21  21  23  24
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..12  14  14  13  12  12  12  12  12  13  12  13
20 FT wind gust.16  20  22  24  25  24  24  23  23  23  21  20
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.7   8   8   8   7   7   7   7   7   8   7   8
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  12  13  14  15  14  14  14  14  14  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.6 2.6 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.2 3.9 2.7 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.12  10  12  18  20  20  22  21  21  20  18  12

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 33.
Max humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Eye level winds.....West winds up to 7 mph.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........4   3   5   7   19  32  39  25  15  20  32  36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............39  38  37  35  34  34  34  33  34  33  34  33
RH..............31  35  40  43  45  45  45  47  45  47  45  47
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..12  10  10  9   9   8   8   7   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.18  16  15  14  12  12  10  10  9   9   8   8
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Eye lvl wnd spd.7   6   6   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.11  10  9   8   7   7   6   6   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   9   7   8   7   7   7   6   6   6

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    in the morning. Chance of rain in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 45.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 6 mph shifting to the south 5 to
                    7 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming southeast up to 4 mph in
                    the afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........45  56  55  59  64  70  77  84  86  88  90  91
Weather cov.....    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....    RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   20  20  20  20  20  20  50  50  50  50  50
Temp............33  34  35  37  40  42  43  44  44  43  42  41
RH..............47  49  52  48  39  36  35  35  38  45  53  59
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  SW  S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   2   3   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.7   7   6   6   7   7   8   9   9   9   9   10
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   W   SW  SW  S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   2   2   1   2   3   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.6   6   5   5   6   6   5   5   6   6   7   7

$$
Forecaster...Hofmann
Requested by...Derek Casbon
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2526083.0/LWX
.DELDT 11/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL derek_casbon@nps.gov,lane_gibbons@nps.gov