064
FNUS71 KLWX 140050
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for USA Task Force 1 Full Scale Exercise...Fairfax County Fire and Rescue
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
850 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2100 EDT on May 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

An outflow boundary ahead of approaching showers and thunderstorms is approaching the
exercise site at the moment. That outflow boundary should move through around or just
prior to 850 PM. A shift from light southwesterly winds to northwesterly winds gusting
to around 25-30 mph will accompany that outflow boundary. Rain should start around
910-915 PM and last for approximately 45 mins to an hour. A few lightning strikes and
rumbles of thunder may also be possible during that 45 min to one hour long window.
Conditions should start to improve after 1030-11 PM or so, but a few lingering showers
can`t be ruled out through around 1 AM. Drier conditions are expected through the
second half of the night. Mostly sunny skies are expected tomorrow, with temperatures
starting out in the low 50s and then eventually climbing into the mid 60s by afternoon.
Winds will be out of the northwest, and may gust to around 15-25 mph.

REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers and
                    chance of thunderstorms late in the evening,
                    then chance of rain showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Chance of thunder...30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Surface winds (mph).South winds around 7 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 6 mph late in the evening,
                    then shifting to the southwest around 5 mph
                    late in the evening shifting to the northwest 5
                    to 9 mph overnight.

TIME (EDT)      9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........98     82     67     66     52
Weather cov.....DEFNTE LIKELY S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).100    70     20     10     10
Chc of thdr (%).30     10     0      0      0
Temp............64     60     58     55     54
RH..............75     90     93     93     86
Surface wind....S 7    S 5    SW 5   NW 6   NW 9
Surface wnd gst.13     9      8      12     16

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of thunder...1 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........33     16     12     47     55     48
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Chc of thdr (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............53     54     59     61     64     65
RH..............86     80     64     58     52     48
Surface wind....NW 10  NW 12  NW 13  NW 14  NW 14  NW 15
Surface wnd gst.16     17     17     20     20     22

$$
Forecaster...Pallozzi
Requested by...Jaimie Gillespie Plans Manager
Type of request...SAR
.TAG 2613608.0/LWX
.DELDT 05/13/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL usar@vatf1.org