547
FXUS64 KLZK 192320
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
620 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

-Hot and dry conditions will remain in place through Sunday

-Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across mainly
 NW Arkansas Sunday night into Monday

-A cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures to the
 state by Tuesday, continuing through much of the upcoming week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Conditions across the state today will be very similar to what was
experienced on Friday. High temperatures in the 97-102 F range
and dewpoints in the 50s/60s F will allow afternoon min RH values
to fall below the the percentile. Sfc winds will remain fairly
light, with slightly increased S/SW winds across western portions
of the state.

Over the next couple of days the H500 ridge that has been in place
across Arkansas for the past few weeks may finally break down and
shift south of the region. This long overdue change is due to
mid-level troughing expected to move east across the Central
Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. At the sfc, a cold front will
approach from the NW and move across the area on Monday.

Ahead of the frontal passage, an increase in precip development is
expected from late Sunday into Monday, but will remain largely
across western and northern portions of the state. Widespread
meaningful precipitation is not expected, but some localized
relief could be seen. Behind the front cooler temperatures are
expected across the state, but temperatures will generally remain
near to below seasonal average.

Cooler temperatures and dry conditions will persist through much
of next week. Td values are expected to remain in the 50s/60s F
next week which will limit any significant fire weather concerns
when combined with the slightly cooler daily high temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Upper level high will remain dominant through the period with a
continuation of VFR conditions. Winds will remain generally from
the south to southwest with some higher gusts over the northern
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     97  73 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR        100  70  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       95  71  95  68 /   0   0  10  50
Hot Springs AR    96  71  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR 100  73  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     98  73 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      95  68  97  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  98  70  97  69 /   0   0   0  30
Newport AR       100  72 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     99  71  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   99  71 100  72 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         99  70 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR     101  73 101  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56