139
FXUS64 KLZK 052320 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
620 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

-Warm and dry conditions will continue through the day today.

-More organized and widespread rain chances for much of the state
 will return through the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.

-A cold front is set to move through the region on Wednesday,
 tapering off rain chances and ushering in cooler and more
 seasonable conditions, with settled weather resuming through the
 end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Latest mesoanalysis depicted a prominent cosine wave H500 flow
pattern, w/ broad troughing acrs the Cont Divide, and ridging
centered over the Great Lakes to NErn US. Sfc high pressure that had
been rooted over the Ern US was also noted moving Ewrd into
Atlantic, w/ a fetch of Srly to SErly sfc flow positioned over the
Srn Cntrl US.

Thru the day today and into Mon, the upper flow pattern wl begin to
deamplify, w/ Wrn US troughing elongating and transitioning fm a
neutral to largely positive tilt, extending fm the Cont Divide to
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. As H500 Swrly flow
overspreads the Cntrl US, low-lvl WAA and poleward moisture
transport wl ensue acrs the Srn Cntrl US, w/ dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s quickly advancing to at least the periphery of the Ozark
Plateau by Mon aftn.

A sfc pressure col is progged to set up fm SW to NE, extending fm
the OK/TX panhandle region to the Upper Midwest, as a surge of
continental sfc high pressure moves Swrd thru the Cntrl Plains, and
collides w/ lingering Atlantic sfc high pressure. This col feature,
or inverted sfc pressure trof, depending on the frame of reference,
wl lkly result in an axis of enhanced QPF during the Mon to Tues
timeframe, and as of now, is expected to reside well north of the
FA.

However, higher Chc PoPs are still expected acrs much of the FA
beginning on Mon due to aforementioned WAA/isentropic ascent and
asctd incrsg moisture transport. Greater confidence of higher QPF
currently lies acrs the Ern half of the state on Mon, and
particularly NErn AR, which should be good news for most w/
potential drought relief on the way.

Rain chcs wl continue thru Tues over much of the FA, w/ the Cntrl
Plains sfc high pressure eventually winning out and moving further
Swrd as it gains more upper level support fm a pivoting vorticity
max embedded w/in the mean flow. Tues night and into Wed, a cdfrnt
along the leading edge of this sfc high pressure wl advance Swrd
into the Ozarks, and then shift Ewrd, w/ the Great Lakes once again
under broad high pressure.

In the wake of the frnt, which looks to shift towards a "back-door"
frnt signal as sfc high pressure settles to the east, NErly sfc
winds wl prevail thru at least the end of the week, ushering in
cooler and drier air over the Natural State and settled wx condns
prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Expect VFR conditions to remain dominant this evening into the
overnight hrs. However...moisture levels will increase overnight
into Mon...with some chances for SHRA/TSRA increasing into the
daytime hrs Mon. Best chances for seeing convection will be across
the ERN half of the state...mainly scattered in nature. Some MVFR
conditions could be seen...especially under the more intense
activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     65  78  65  81 /  20  60  60  50
Camden AR         67  80  67  83 /  30  70  40  50
Harrison AR       62  78  64  79 /  10  40  30  30
Hot Springs AR    66  79  67  83 /  20  50  40  40
Little Rock   AR  68  79  69  81 /  20  60  60  50
Monticello AR     70  83  69  85 /  30  70  50  50
Mount Ida AR      65  80  66  84 /  10  50  30  40
Mountain Home AR  64  80  65  81 /  10  40  40  30
Newport AR        68  79  69  81 /  30  70  70  60
Pine Bluff AR     69  81  68  83 /  20  60  50  50
Russellville AR   67  82  67  85 /  10  40  30  30
Searcy AR         67  80  67  81 /  30  60  70  60
Stuttgart AR      70  81  69  81 /  30  60  60  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...62