022
FXUS64 KLZK 210600
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
100 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- A cold front will progress south across the state Monday
  bringing a few showers/storms to the area

- Behind the front, much cooler temperatures expected through the
  week

- Little improvement in wildfire danger and drought conditions
  expected over the next 7 days

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Early morning radar data and sfc obs indicate a cold front draped
from northeast Oklahoma to southern Missouri and Illinois.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were persisting from
northeast Texas to northwest Arkansas toward the St. Louis area.
Well ahead of this activity, radar data was sampling an extended
outflow boundary from near KLRF to KHKA. Temperatures across the
state were generally in the 70s F with dewpoint values in the 60s
F.

Throughout the day the cold front will make gradual progress
southward across Arkansas but daytime highs are still expected to
climb well into the 90s F. Temperatures will likely hold in the
80s F across northwest parts of the state today. Additional
showers and storms may develop throughout the day across Arkansas,
but short term hi-res guidance remains underwhelming regarding
overall coverage and forecast POPs reflect that.

After today, much cooler temperatures are expected to filter into
the state as sfc ridging builds in from the north behind the cold
front. Coolest readings are expected across north-central portions
of the state from Wed-Sat with highs in some spots struggling to
climb out of the upper 70s F at times. Overnight lows will likely
dip down into the 50s as well. Elsewhere, much more comfortable
but near/above normal temperatures will be seen.

By the weekend, temperatures may begin to warm once again as the
mid-level ridge aattemptsto build back north across the
Southern/Central Plains. Dry conditions will be noted through the
week with only slight chances for precip possible by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Generally VFR conditions expected across the area through the
period. A cold front will slowly move southward across the state
through Monday evening. Some showers/storms will be possible,
mainly across northern AR terminals. Elsewhere, coverage of precip
is expected to remain very isolated. Winds will be fairly light
through the period as well, generally becoming N/NW behind the
front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     95  67  88  61 /  20  20  10   0
Camden AR         98  70  94  67 /  20  10   0   0
Harrison AR       87  65  82  60 /  40  20  20   0
Hot Springs AR    95  70  89  65 /  20  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  95  71  90  66 /  20  10  10   0
Monticello AR     97  71  93  69 /  20  10  10   0
Mount Ida AR      94  66  90  63 /  30  10  10   0
Mountain Home AR  88  65  84  59 /  40  20  10   0
Newport AR        95  69  88  63 /  20  20  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     97  69  91  65 /  20  10  10   0
Russellville AR   94  69  89  65 /  30  10  10   0
Searcy AR         96  68  89  62 /  20  10  10   0
Stuttgart AR      98  71  92  66 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...67