863
FXUS64 KLZK 172300
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
600 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Arkansas River Valley
  and the Mississippi River Delta through Saturday

- Isolated showers & t`storms possible in west, & south Arkansas
  this afternoon

- Dry air begins to move into the region, nearing critical minimum
  RH levels in the 20s and 30s percent

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The H500 ridge that has been dominating headlines for several weeks
now will shift westward during the day Thurs with its peak of 600Dm
heights centered over the AR River Valley. Wide spread near record &
record temps are expected to continue through at least the first
half of the weekend. Thurs afternoon isolated showers and t`storms
are possible across portions of west and southern Arkansas. Coverage
will likely be more limited with the focusing of the ridge directly
over the state. Within these storms a strong gust of wind or two and
frequent lightning would be the biggest hazards. Any development
will decrease coverage quickly after sunset with loss of heating.

Dew points are starting a slow trend downward, which is
a double edge sword. The drier air will take an edge off the
oppressive heat indices and allow for some areas to start to be
removed from heat advisories, and potentially removing all heat
headlines by mid next week. However, this will also start to drop
Min RHs below 30th percentile over the weekend. With the more humid
conditions we have been experiencing have been some help with fire
weather due to saturated low levels. Over the weekend we lose this
as drier air works its way into the region. Combine this with the
very dry fuel loads, fire behavior will likely become more
aggressive over the weekend.

Brief relief may be in site to start next week. The H500 ridge will
finally show some weakness and break down at the start of the week.
This will allow for a shortwave to track across central MO with an
attached cold front. Model spread run to run is still wide on how
far south the front can make it and if a shot of tropical moisture
will arrive ahead of the front for more widespread PoPs. Current
trends and pattern suggest that the front will likely struggle to
make it south across large portions of the CWA. This in turn would
limit the overlap of forcing and moisture leading to not much
difference than the random pop-up pattern we are in now for QPF
totals.

As soon as the short wave leaves another ridge will start to build
back into the area mid next week continuing the run of near record
highs and little to no rain for the foreseeable future. Models
continue to advertise cooler temps at the end of the period that are
replaced with a more realistic well above average temp under the
pattern. This is likely in part due to model climatology that is
being skewed by normal temps dropping around 10 degrees by the end
of the month. Any advertised heat relief should be taken with a
grain of salt until a discernible breakdown in the ridging pattern
occurs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR flight categories to prevail through the period. Winds remain
generally light and out of the south. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible across the northern terminals through sunset. Within
these storms stronger wind gusts and sub VFR flight conditions are
possible. Coverage of any afternoon convection is not widespread
enough to include at any sites. Rinse and repeat conditions are
expected Friday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR    101  75 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         99  71 100  69 /  20   0   0   0
Harrison AR       96  73  96  73 /  20   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    99  73 100  71 /  20   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  99  75 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     97  73  99  72 /  10   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      99  71  99  68 /  20   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  98  73  98  71 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR       100  74 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     98  72  99  71 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR  100  73 100  72 /  20   0   0   0
Searcy AR        100  72 101  72 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR     100  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ007-008-016-017-024-
025-031>034-039-043>047-057-121>123-130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56