570
FXUS64 KLZK 021721
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Widespread rain chances will slowly expand east across the state from
  Thursday into Friday, continuing into the weekend

- Highest rainfall amounts are expected across western Arkansas
  with amounts tapering off to the east

- Much cooler temperatures likely from Friday through early next
  week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Recent radar imgry depicted sctd covg of precip moving NEwrd acrs
the the NWrn half of the FA, located along a 35kt H850 LLJ. At the
sfc, a cdfrnt was noted moving SE slowly acrs the Cntrl Plains and
portions SErn KS. Thru the day Fri, expect this cdfrnt to continue
moving SEwrd into the FA, reaching NWrn AR b/w 12-15Z, but lkly
stalling acrs Cntrl AR. Asctd precip activity wl continue along a SW
to NE axis along the frnt, w/ latest HREF/REFS 50th percentile
guidance indicating a swath of 1-2 inches possible over much of Wrn
to NWrn AR thru Sat. NBM 50th percentile is also advertising similar
amounts, while much of Cntrl to SErn AR looks to receive minimal
rainfall, generally under one half to one inch. Some high-res LPMM
guidance suggests a few swaths of 2+ inches could be possible, but
rainfall amounts of this magnitude wl be confined any areas of
significant training.

Sat thru Sun, the previously stalled frnt should continue to slowly
move Swrd, ushering drier and cooler air into the region, w/ low
chance precip lingering over SErn AR. This frnt should bring a
seasonal airmass change to the region, w/ low temps in the 50s
expected on Mon mrng, and lows in the 40s acrs portions of the state
by Tues mrng. Thru early to mid-week next week, stronger H500 flow
wl recede poleward, w/ weak flow aloft and post-cdfrntl condns
contributing to below normal high temperatures acrs the FA, though
as Srly sfc flow resumes by mid-week, daily high temps wl trend
upwards once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through much of the period as
a cold front continue to push through the state. This front is
bringing mostly light rain to terminals. This will be mostly
maintained through the period with low CIGs and reduced VIS due to
rain showers. Winds could be gusty out of the south at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     57  73  57  78 /  30  10  10   0
Camden AR         63  79  61  80 /  20  30  50  30
Harrison AR       56  73  57  80 /  20  10  10   0
Hot Springs AR    61  75  61  80 /  30  30  20  10
Little Rock   AR  61  74  61  79 /  30  20  20  10
Monticello AR     64  81  63  79 /  20  40  50  50
Mount Ida AR      58  75  57  80 /  30  20  20  10
Mountain Home AR  56  74  56  81 /  10  10  10   0
Newport AR        61  73  61  77 /  20  20  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     61  77  60  78 /  20  20  40  30
Russellville AR   60  75  59  81 /  20  20  10   0
Searcy AR         59  74  59  79 /  20  20  20   0
Stuttgart AR      62  77  62  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...73