562
FXUS64 KLZK 190656
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
156 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

-Another very hot day is expected across the Natural State this
Wednesday...with record heat possible. Extreme Heat Warnings and
Heat Advisories are in place through this evening

-Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible...especially over
northern into northeast Arkansas this afternoon/evening. Damaging
winds are the primary threat...but an isolated weak tornado and
marginally severe hail will also be possible

-Less intense heat will be seen Thursday into the early  next week
as a front drops south through the state Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Increasing SWRLY SFC winds will allow for ample mixing this Wed
afternoon for moisture levels to drop...and temps to warm
considerably over 100 for most locations. Many areas may see near
record conditions...and a few sites may even break record highs this
Wed afternoon. Heat index values will likely exceed 105 for most
areas...and even exceed 110 for areas along the AR River Valley into
ERN AR. Have heat headlines again for late this morning into the
early evening hrs for all of the CWA.

Beyond the very hot conditions...an increased wildfire threat will
exist as well given the very hot and dry conditions. Min RH values
will dip below 30 percent for several areas...and combined with the
lack of rainfall and hot temps...the threat for wildfires will
increase today.

Some chances for rainfall are forecast again today. A complex of
SHRA/TSRA ongoing across central MO early this morning will continue
dropping ESE through around sunrise. While the bulk of this
convection will remain north of AR...an outflow looks to drop south
into the state around sunrise. This may allow for some scattered
convection this morning over NRN sections. While there should be a
break late morning into the early afternoon hrs...additional
convection may develop along this outflow this afternoon over
portions of central AR wherever this outflow ends up. The threat for
strong/SVR Wx with this area of the state will be generally
low...but an isolated strong/SVR TSRA could be seen...with damaging
winds the primary threat expected. Locally heavy rainfall could also
be seen.

Better potential for a bit more organized strong/SVR convection is
expected across NRN/NERN sections this afternoon/evening as a new
front drops south towards the state ahead of an upper shortwave.
Plenty of instability will exist this afternoon...and combined with
enough SHR...will allow for an increased potential for SVR
convection. Damaging winds will again be the primary threat expected
with the strongest storms...but an isolated weak tornado and
marginally SVR hail could also be seen. Locally heavy rainfall will
also be possible with any convective activity today/this evening.

The aforementioned upper shortwave will drop SE over the region on
Thu...with the front dropping south through the state by Thu
evening. Additional chances for scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue
along/behind this front through Thu night. This front will also bring
some relief from the persistent very hot conditions...with less of
the area seeing temps near or over 100. Even so...will likely see
some areas reach that triple digit mark through the weekend...and
moisture levels will likely not decrease too much behind the front.
As a result...some heat index values may still be over 100...and
even a few spots over 105 through the weekend. Beyond the weekend
and into the middle of next week...a stronger upper shortwave looks
to dive south across the Plains...and could bring even more
significant relief from the persistent heat by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR flight conditions to prevail through most of the period. Weak
LLWS is possible in northern terminals before sunrise Wednesday.
This will erode with passing outflow boundary from the north.
Some VCSH will be possible in the AM along the boundary as it
enters the state and eventually stalls. Peak heating will help
drive more storms along the boundary. VCTS has been introduced
area wide as exact coverage is still uncertain, if a storm can
wonder over a TAF expect rapid deterioration to sub VFR
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR    103  75  96  72 /  20  40  30  20
Camden AR        102  78 101  75 /  10  10  10  10
Harrison AR       99  72  92  69 /  20  50  20   0
Hot Springs AR   105  78 101  74 /  20  10  10  20
Little Rock   AR 108  81 100  76 /  20  20  20  20
Monticello AR    103  81 101  77 /  10  10  10  20
Mount Ida AR     103  78 100  72 /  20  10  20  20
Mountain Home AR 100  72  92  70 /  30  60  20   0
Newport AR       104  76  94  72 /  20  30  30  20
Pine Bluff AR    104  78  99  73 /  20  10  20  20
Russellville AR  105  77  99  73 /  20  20  10  10
Searcy AR        105  76  98  72 /  20  20  20  20
Stuttgart AR     104  79  99  75 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-052-053-062-063-066>069-103-112-113-
123-137-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
evening for ARZ025-031>034-039-042>047-054>057-064-065-121-122-
130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...78