569
FXUS64 KLZK 291145
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
545 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 256 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

+ Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through tonight
  as a storm system passes to the northwest of the area. A wind
  advisory in effect for Boone and Newton counties.

+ A cold front will move through the state tonight and introduce a
  much colder air mass with temperatures well below seasonal
  averages.

+ A new storm system will spread moisture into the colder air with
  some winter weather looking increasingly likely Monday and
  Monday night. Overall impacts are expected to be minor.

+ Temperatures will not get out of the 30s Monday but are expected
  to warm Tuesday and beyond but still average below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Guidance continues to indicate an overall progressive pattern will
remain in place with a pair of weather systems to contend with. The
first of these systems is moving through at this time as an upper
trough digs into the central plains with its surface reflection over
the TX/OK panhandles. Surface low will trek to the northeast and
into the Great Lakes region by this time tomorrow. As the system
moves off to the NE, it will drag a cold front through the area and
introduce a considerably colder air mass to the region.

Area radars continue to show light to occasionally moderate rain
moving into the central part of the state. While no thunder has been
noted as of this time, some isolated convection can not be ruled
out. Guidance continues to show at least some precipitation chances
today before it starts to taper off from NW to the SE tonight with
all precipitation exiting the state by Sunday morning. Pressure
gradient is tight enough with the low passing by that a wind
advisory has been issued for Boone and Newton counties where wind
gusts around 40 mph seem likely.

Temperatures will be more than warm enough for just liquid precip
with this system but much colder air will be following the frontal
passage. Timing suggests the deepest moisture will be gone before
the cold air arrives but a few flurries can not be ruled out across
the north as the system departs. The front will settle along the
gulf coast Sunday.

High pressure to the north of the state will provide N to NE surface
flow on Sunday with high temperatures not getting out of the mid
30s to mid 40s. Meanwhile, a much stronger trough will be
dropping into the central Rockies by Monday morning resulting in
the upper flow going back to the SW. Surface low will be
developing along the Texas gulf coast on the aforementioned
frontal boundary which will throw moisture back over the state and
into the cold air mass.

Forecast gets particularly tricky at this point and guidance is
still not in the best of agreement with high temperatures likely
remaining in the 30s statewide Monday. ECMWF is producing a swath of
light snow across the north with little in the way of freezing rain.
Meanwhile, the GFS is showing more in the way of freezing rain for a
much broader area of the CWA with little snow, even across the AR/MO
border. That being said, very few changes will made to the ongoing
forecast with some wintry weather a distinct possibility Monday and
Monday night before the precipitation wraps up.

Guidance is starting to show more of a freezing rain look with
the advancing gulf moisture and the cold dome trying to retreat to
the north. Will continue to keep a wary eye on the evolution of
this system but impacts are still expected to be generally minor.

Temperatures do warm back into the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday
with widespread 40s for Wednesday. Temperatures will knocked down a
bit Thursday before rebounding again Friday. Dry conditions are
expected Tuesday and Wednesday before some precipitation chances
return for later next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Scattered showers will continue through the majority of the TAF
cycle with precipitation ending from NW to SE with time. VFR
conditions will generally prevail but occasional MVFR to brief IFR
conditions can not be discounted. South to southeast winds will
turn to the NW as a frontal system moves through. Winds will
average under 15 knots but higher gusts, especially at KHRO and
KBPK can not be discounted. Wind shear will remain possible
through early afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     49  27  43  24 / 100  20   0   0
Camden AR         53  31  44  29 /  90  70   0  10
Harrison AR       51  23  37  22 /  90  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    51  27  44  26 /  90  40   0  10
Little Rock   AR  49  30  43  27 /  90  40   0   0
Monticello AR     55  35  45  30 /  90  80  10  10
Mount Ida AR      53  27  45  27 /  90  30   0  10
Mountain Home AR  49  24  38  21 / 100  10   0   0
Newport AR        49  29  42  25 / 100  30   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     52  31  43  27 /  90  70   0  10
Russellville AR   51  28  45  27 / 100  20   0   0
Searcy AR         49  27  43  24 /  90  30   0   0
Stuttgart AR      50  30  42  27 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ARZ103-112-203-
212.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...56