


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
420 FXUS64 KLZK 171126 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 626 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 All types of Severe Weather are possbile Saturday - Damaging Winds will be the greatest threat along a line of storms - Large Hail will be possible early in the afternoon over western and NW Arkansas - Tornado threat is low, but embedded tornadoes along the line of storms is possible - Flash Flooding is possible over NW Arkansas if mulitiple storms move ove the same location && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Today will be the last day of above average temperatures before a major shift in our pattern Saturday with as a cold front pushes through. The severe weather threat will increase on Saturday as a deep shortwave trough ejects out into the Southern Plains. A stalled boundary will form up Friday from MO through TX that will be a main player when the trough pushes through Saturday. Saturday the upper level shortwave trough will push into the southern Plains which will cause rapid frontogenesis along this boundary by late Saturday morning. Along and ahead of this boundary will have solid severe weather parameters of around 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 40 kts of effective shear. The initial storms, around noon, may stay discrete long enough for possible large hail, but the strong synoptic lifting and forcing form this upper level trough will cause for rapid upscale growth along the boundary. A quick linear soluiton is also enforced by storm motion and shear vectors along the boundary which will help enforce cold pool development. The threat from hail will quickly turn to a more linear and damaging wind threat which will be the main threat for this event. Rapid easterly movement of the boundary may cause strong gradient winds along the boundary. Forward propagation vectors show 60-70kts with most winds all inline through the column. This indicate straight- line winds and possible bowing segments are possible as this line of storms moves east. This is where the tornado threat will come into play as the main threat will be quick QLCS type tornades embedded in the line on those bowing segments. Keep in mind these types of tornadoes tend to have lower lead times and so action needs to be quicker for finding shelter with these types of tornadoes. Behind this front, cooler air will move into the area with Sunday through Tuesday showing average or slightly below average temperatures and moisture. Another cold front moves through Tuesday, but with little to no moisture available it will mainly be a wind shift and another reinforced cold front and high pressure that will last through the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Widepsread VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds are expected to go light and variable overnight before becoming out of the south and southwest Friday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 87 64 85 52 / 0 10 80 70 Camden AR 88 65 84 55 / 0 0 60 60 Harrison AR 83 63 79 47 / 0 20 90 40 Hot Springs AR 87 66 84 52 / 0 10 70 50 Little Rock AR 87 67 84 56 / 0 10 70 70 Monticello AR 90 66 88 58 / 0 0 50 80 Mount Ida AR 87 66 84 51 / 0 10 80 40 Mountain Home AR 85 64 81 49 / 0 10 90 50 Newport AR 87 66 87 53 / 0 0 70 80 Pine Bluff AR 89 67 87 56 / 0 0 60 70 Russellville AR 88 67 84 52 / 0 10 80 50 Searcy AR 88 65 85 52 / 0 10 70 70 Stuttgart AR 88 67 87 56 / 0 0 60 70 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....75 AVIATION...75