Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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420
FXUS64 KLZK 171126
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
626 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

All types of Severe Weather are possbile Saturday

- Damaging Winds will be the greatest threat along a line of
  storms
- Large Hail will be possible early in the afternoon over western
  and NW Arkansas
- Tornado threat is low, but embedded tornadoes along the line of
 storms is possible
- Flash Flooding is possible over NW Arkansas if mulitiple storms
  move ove the same location

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Today will be the last day of above average temperatures before a
major shift in our pattern Saturday with as a cold front pushes
through.

The severe weather threat will increase on Saturday as a deep
shortwave trough ejects out into the Southern Plains. A stalled
boundary will form up Friday from MO through TX that will be a
main player when the trough pushes through Saturday.

Saturday the upper level shortwave trough will push into the
southern Plains which will cause rapid frontogenesis along this
boundary by late Saturday morning. Along and ahead of this
boundary will have solid severe weather parameters of around 2000
J/kg of SBCAPE and 40 kts of effective shear. The initial storms,
around noon, may stay discrete long enough for possible large
hail, but the strong synoptic lifting and forcing form this upper
level trough will cause for rapid upscale growth along the
boundary. A quick linear soluiton is also enforced by storm motion
and shear vectors along the boundary which will help enforce cold
pool development. The threat from hail will quickly turn to a
more linear and damaging wind threat which will be the main threat
for this event. Rapid easterly movement of the boundary may cause
strong gradient winds along the boundary. Forward propagation
vectors show 60-70kts with most winds all inline through the
column. This indicate straight- line winds and possible bowing
segments are possible as this line of storms moves east. This is
where the tornado threat will come into play as the main threat
will be quick QLCS type tornades embedded in the line on those
bowing segments. Keep in mind these types of tornadoes tend to
have lower lead times and so action needs to be quicker for
finding shelter with these types of tornadoes.

Behind this front, cooler air will move into the area with Sunday
through Tuesday showing average or slightly below average
temperatures and moisture. Another cold front moves through
Tuesday, but with little to no moisture available it will mainly
be a wind shift and another reinforced cold front and high
pressure that will last through the week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Widepsread VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds
are expected to go light and variable overnight before becoming
out of the south and southwest Friday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     87  64  85  52 /   0  10  80  70
Camden AR         88  65  84  55 /   0   0  60  60
Harrison AR       83  63  79  47 /   0  20  90  40
Hot Springs AR    87  66  84  52 /   0  10  70  50
Little Rock   AR  87  67  84  56 /   0  10  70  70
Monticello AR     90  66  88  58 /   0   0  50  80
Mount Ida AR      87  66  84  51 /   0  10  80  40
Mountain Home AR  85  64  81  49 /   0  10  90  50
Newport AR        87  66  87  53 /   0   0  70  80
Pine Bluff AR     89  67  87  56 /   0   0  60  70
Russellville AR   88  67  84  52 /   0  10  80  50
Searcy AR         88  65  85  52 /   0  10  70  70
Stuttgart AR      88  67  87  56 /   0   0  60  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....75
AVIATION...75