604
FXUS64 KLZK 202316
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
616 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

-Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across mainly
 NW Arkansas Sunday night into Monday

-A cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures to the
 state by Tuesday, continuing through much of the upcoming week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

One more day of widespread high temperatures in the mid 90s F to
around 100 F. Td values are expected to be slightly higher than
what was observed on Saturday, but afternoon min RH values are
still expected to bottom out near the 30th percentile. Sfc winds
will remain out of the S/SW at generally less than 10 mph with
some occasional gusts, especially across portions of western and
northern AR.

The H500 ridge that has been in place across Arkansas for the
past few weeks is expected to finally break down and shift south
of the region over the next couple of days. This long overdue
change is due to a mid-level low expected to move east across the
Central Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. At the sfc, a cold front
will approach from the NW and move across the area on Monday.

Ahead of the front, an increase in precip development is expected
from late Sunday into Monday, but will remain largely across
western and northern portions of the state. Did include some
broader low pops on Monday, but widespread meaningful
precipitation is not expected. Some localized relief could be
seen. Behind the front cooler temperatures are expected across the
state, but temperatures will generally remain near to above
seasonal average.

Cooler temperatures and dry conditions will persist through much
of the week. Td values are expected to remain in the 50s/60s F
next week which will limit any significant fire weather concerns
when combined with the slightly cooler daily high temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A cold front will approach the northern terminals this evening
with some widely scattered convection possible. The boundary will
weaken with VCSH sufficient for the central terminals and precip
will not be mentioned for KPBF and KLLQ. Winds will turn to the
west to northwest behind the boundary. VFR conditions will largely
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     97  73  94  68 /   0   0  40  20
Camden AR         99  72  97  70 /   0   0  20  20
Harrison AR       96  69  86  65 /   0  30  60  10
Hot Springs AR    95  73  95  70 /   0   0  30  20
Little Rock   AR  99  75  95  71 /   0   0  20  20
Monticello AR     96  75  97  71 /   0   0  20  20
Mount Ida AR      93  70  94  67 /   0   0  30  20
Mountain Home AR  97  70  87  66 /   0  20  50  20
Newport AR        99  73  95  69 /   0   0  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     98  73  96  69 /   0   0  20  20
Russellville AR   98  73  93  69 /   0   0  30  20
Searcy AR         99  72  95  69 /   0   0  20  20
Stuttgart AR      98  75  98  71 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56