980
FXUS64 KLZK 011055 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
555 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Well above normal temperatures to persist across the southeast
  half of Arkansas on Thursday along with gusty southerly winds

- Widespread rain chances will slowly expand east across the state
  from Thursday into Friday, continuing into the weekend

- Highest rainfall amounts are expected across western Arkansas
  with amounts tapering off to the east

- Much cooler temperatures likely from Friday through early next
  week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

One more day of very warm temperatures is expected across much of
the state as sfc and mid-level ridging persist across the SE US.
Highs Thu afternoon are expected to climb into the 90s F once
again across much of central, southern and eastern Arkansas.
Precip will be slow to move in from the west Thursday, but
portions of western AR will see some occasional showers and
thunderstorms through the day. The precip and associated cloud
cover will help keep temperatures slightly cooler across the west.

The slow moving H500 low is located just west of the TX/OK
panhandles late this evening and has provided significant
rainfall to portions of the Central/Southern Plains on Wednesday.
Over the next 12-24 hours the mid-level low will weaken and begin
to open as it encounters the strong Southeast ridge. It will
slowly progress E/NE toward the Mid-MS Valley before being
absorbed into a northern stream trough advancing east across the
Ohio Valley.

At the sfc, a cold front will approach the area from the west and
will provide the focus for widespread precip from south Texas to
the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. With the loss of much upper
level support, this is where rainfall amounts begin to taper off.
The remnant moisture plume from Polo (characterized by PW values
of 2-2.5 inches) will begin to diminish and widespread rainfall
efficiency will be reduced. The spread in precip amounts amongst
various model solutions, including ensembles, remains high for an
event in this time-range. The general idea that western Arkansas
will see the highest rainfall totals still holds true, with
amounts expected to taper off toward the east. Before PW values
really diminish, there could be some localized rainfall totals of
2-4 inches in some spots through Friday morning, but these are
expected to remain isolated.

By the weekend the front will shift south of the state and precip
chances will diminish from north to south. The Southeast ridge
will be forced southward as a stronger trough builds across the
eastern US. This will provide NW flow aloft over the state and sfc
ridging will build in just north of the area. This will provide
at least a few days of below normal temperatures across the state.
There could even be a few mornings early next week with lows in
the 40s F across parts of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

S/SE winds will be in place through the period with sustained
winds around 10 kts during the day along with some occasional
gusts to around 20 kts. VFR conditions will remain common but as
showers and thunderstorms slowly increase from W-E there could be
some MVFR conditions associated with this activity. KHRO/KBPK will
see the highest chances of impacts from RA/TS activity and
lowered flight categories, especially after 01/21z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     92  68  75  57 /   0  80  90  40
Camden AR         93  69  84  62 /   0  50  80  50
Harrison AR       84  65  71  56 /  60  90  70  30
Hot Springs AR    91  68  79  61 /  20  80  90  50
Little Rock   AR  92  70  79  61 /   0  60  90  50
Monticello AR     93  72  87  64 /   0  20  60  30
Mount Ida AR      89  65  78  58 /  40  90  90  50
Mountain Home AR  86  65  73  56 /  30 100  70  30
Newport AR        93  70  76  60 /   0  60  90  30
Pine Bluff AR     93  69  83  61 /   0  30  80  40
Russellville AR   87  67  77  60 /  30  90  80  50
Searcy AR         93  69  78  59 /   0  70  90  40
Stuttgart AR      95  72  82  62 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION....67
AVIATION...67