223
FXUS64 KLZK 031141
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
541 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will move across the state today
  bringing beneficial rain to a good part of the state.

- The overall severe weather set up is not ideal but some of the
  stronger storms could produce gusty winds and perhaps a quick
  QLCS tornado.

- The precipitation will exit the region this afternoon with a
  very small chance of precipitation across the north tonight.

- Overall dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the
  forecast period with temperatures close to seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Latest guidance is showing that the current forecast is pretty much
on target and only some minor modifications will be made this
morning. Attention will be focused for the next several hours on a
broken line of convection located over far eastern OK at this time.

This line of showers and thunderstorms continues to advance towards
western AR at this time. However, these storms are running into a
much more unfavorable environment, i.e, a much more stable air mass.
Still, some gusty winds and even a brief QLCS spin up can not be
discounted through the remainder of the night although odds are
quickly diminishing.

Upper pattern this morning remains highly amplified with H5 ridges
located over the SE CONUS and over the Great Basin/Intermountain
west. Located in between these features is upper level troughing
that extends from the Southern/Central Plains and into the Mid
Missouri Valley. Embedded in the base of this feature is upper level
low pressure. Surface low pressure is over south central KS with a
cold frontal boundary extending of said low and located in far
eastern Oklahoma and curving southwest into northern/central TX.

As this trough moves to the east, showers and thunderstorms will
overspread the FA. Southwest flow continues to provide a decent
enough moisture axis where the storms seem to be focused on. This
line of convection will move east during the day but overall the
severe threat looks limited with widespread cloud cover. Stability
appears to be limited until the early to mid afternoon with CAMS
guidance showing some destabilization over the east and east central
parts of the CWA where the best chances of seeing stronger winds
could occur. Any bowing segments could still pop off a quick QLCS
tornado. Most areas are still likely to see beneficial rain from
this system.

Guidance has this line of convection crossing the Mississippi River
early this evening taking the majority of the precipitation with it.
A weak impulse embedded in the base of the departing trough will
brush the northern row or two of counties in the FA and will need to
have at least minimal precipitation chances through the night.

In the wake of the system, broad southwest flow develops once again
as another mid level impulse/upper trough drops into the TX/OK
panhandles by Thursday morning. Trough moves across the north
Thursday night and into Friday but with limited moisture to work
with, only minimals POPS and QPF can be justified. Sprawling H5
ridge forecast to develop over the southern plains this weekend
which moves over the state early next week.

Concerning temperatures, cooler air will follow the boundary for
Wednesday but quickly rebound as the aforementioned SW flow aloft
develops on Thursday. Temperatures once again cool down Friday
through the weekend as northwest flow returns with the upper ridge
located to our west. As the ridge moves east early next week,
temperatures will warm in response.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR conditions generally prevail at this time and will continue
through the morning hours and into the afternoon. Some scattered
SHRA may be seen early Tue morning as well as some patchy DZ. A
line of convection will move through the state during the day on
Tuesday with widespread SHRA/scattered TSRA possible. This
activity should pass east of the state near the end of this TAF
period with VFR conditions returning in the wake of this line.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  51  73  44 /  90  40   0   0
Camden AR         74  48  73  43 /  90  10   0   0
Harrison AR       73  48  67  45 /  90  20   0   0
Hot Springs AR    73  49  73  44 /  80   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  75  53  73  48 / 100  20   0   0
Monticello AR     78  54  73  46 /  90  60   0   0
Mount Ida AR      75  45  72  38 /  90   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  71  50  67  44 /  90  20   0   0
Newport AR        77  54  72  46 / 100  70   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     77  50  73  44 / 100  30   0   0
Russellville AR   76  50  71  44 /  90   0   0   0
Searcy AR         76  51  72  44 / 100  30   0   0
Stuttgart AR      78  54  72  47 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...56