


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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158 FXUS64 KLZK 161810 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 110 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 -Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist through Friday. -A cold front will move across the state Saturday into Sunday which will bring rain and thunderstorm chances to Arkansas. -Severe weather will be possible across parts of Arkansas on Saturday, especially Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. -Cooler temperatures are expected from Sunday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 THURSDAY (TODAY): A robust, upper lvl ridge will be settled across the Mid-South region of the CONUS extending eastward over the Southeastern region of the CONUS which will assist in the promotion of mostly sunny skies and fair weather across the Natural State. Additionally, regional sfc high pressure will lead to a continued advection of southerly to southeasterly flow into Arkansas ushering a warm and moist airmass across the state. Expect temperatures overall to remain unseasonably warm for this time of the year averaging about 5 to 10 degrees above normal overall. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A significant pattern shift in the upper lvls is forecast to take place by late workweek (Friday). An upper lvl trof is projected to dig over the Central Plains region of the CONUS and will drive a cold front across Arkansas through Saturday and into Saturday night. Latest model guidance of the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF continue to be in cohesion with regard to the occurrence of rain and thunderstorm activity ahead of and along the placement of the cold front. Additionally, in contrast to yesterday as far as placement and timing, the models are converging on a later overall solution of the cold front to push through the state. Unfortunately, the model solutions have now trended toward the ECMWF solution from yesterday which slowed the cold front arrival into Arkansas with limited rain and thunderstorm development ahead of the frontal boundary. In response, this would allow for max diurnal heating ahead of the boundary which would promote an environment across a large portion of Arkansas to become unstable. In this scenario the potential for a higher-end severe weather event is greater leading to significant severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards: damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Over the next couple of days short-term model (high resolution) guidance will continue to be closely analyzed to monitor the latest model outcomes and their cohesion or divergence from one another to forecast the likely evolution of the Saturday event. Into the day on Sunday, expect precipitation to come to an end across the eastern portion of the state. A much cooler and drier (via both the rain-cooled environment and the cooler and drier airmass behind the cold front) will lower temperatures to near or slightly below average temperatures for mid-October transitioning into later October. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Into Monday, the cold front will push well east of Arkansas and sfc high pressure will occupy the region. In response this will usher in a cooler and drier airmass which will place temperatures overall near normal for mid-October transitioning into late-October. Into Tuesday and Wednesday, finishing the forecast period, a cold front will move quickly through the state of Arkansas. However, details regarding this frontal boundary are low confidence, especially regarding how much moisture and warm temperatures the boundary will have to utilize. Regardless, POP chances will increase for both days and an isolated thunderstorm is not out of the question with this second system that moves across the state. Details will become refined over the next several days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Expect VFR condns to prevail thru the PD w/ only SCTD mid to high lvl cloud cover to note thru Thurs night into Fri mrng. Erly winds wl persist thru the remainder of Thurs, w/ winds bcmg Srly by Fri aftn. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 59 87 63 86 / 0 0 0 70 Camden AR 61 88 65 86 / 0 0 0 40 Harrison AR 59 83 63 81 / 0 0 10 80 Hot Springs AR 62 87 66 86 / 0 0 0 50 Little Rock AR 63 87 67 85 / 0 0 0 50 Monticello AR 62 91 66 88 / 0 0 0 30 Mount Ida AR 62 87 66 85 / 0 0 10 60 Mountain Home AR 60 85 63 83 / 0 0 10 80 Newport AR 62 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 60 Pine Bluff AR 62 90 66 88 / 0 0 0 40 Russellville AR 63 88 66 86 / 0 0 10 70 Searcy AR 61 88 63 86 / 0 0 0 50 Stuttgart AR 62 89 67 87 / 0 0 0 40 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...72