Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
790 FXUS64 KLZK 130729 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 129 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 129 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 -Dry and warming conditions will persist through the end of the week. -Above-normal temperatures are expected, with area readings in the upper 70s to low 80s on Friday and Saturday. -Some areas may approach daily record high temperatures to within a few degrees on Saturday. -Unsettled weather, including heavy rainfall and thunderstorms is expected to return to the forecast area by next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 129 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Recent nighttime sat imgry depicted clear skies over the FA w/ objective sfc analyses indicating sfc high pressure centered over the ARKLAMISS vcty. RAP fcst soundings suggest favorable condns for fog acrs portions of Ern AR, centered over the I40 corridor thru sunrise Thurs mrng. Otherwise, thru today, expect warming temperatures into the low to mid 70s alongside breezy Srly winds. Thru the remainder of the week, upper level ridging over the Srn Cntrl US, and a grid-locked sfc pressure gradient wl keep low-lvl Srly flow and warm advection in place over the FA. Daily high temps wl moderating upwards, w/ highs in the upper 70s on Fri, and highs in the 80s on Sat. Several locations wl lkly near daily record high temps to w/in a few degrees on Sat as well. Looking ahead to next week, the warming pattern is expected to break as upper level ridging weakens, and mean troughing over the Wrn US amplifies. Overall, an unsettled pattern w/ rain and thunderstorms is becoming more probable for the Natural State by mid-week next week. W/in mean troughing, ensemble and deterministic guidance is depicting a few embedded shortwave trofs pivoting thru the mean flow, w/ a fetch of SWrly H500 flow extending over the FA atop of anomalous low to mid level moisture (> 90%ile precipitable water values). This is typically a favorable pattern for widespread to heavy rainfall for the region, and both deterministic and ensemble guidance are indicative of this potential. Regarding QPF/rainfall, the last few runs of GFS/ECMWF deterministic QPF could be described as outlandish for the Wed and beyond timeframe in the extended term, however, its the trends in placement of the QPF footprint that are noteworthy. Looking at GEFS/EPS/EPS- AIFS dProg/dt`s for total QPF, a significant signal is evident in the extended forecast for widespread rainfall next week, including heavy to excessive rainfall potential, e.g., 25-30% probabilities for 24 hr QPF > 2-3 inches. Additionally, an impressively consistent signal in the primary QPF footprint is noted in the EC-AIFS. Overall, the latest trends for heavy rainfall potential next week bear monitoring, w/ severe weather potential still uncertain given greater variability in severe weather forecast elements. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 The majority of the forecast period from early Thursday morning through early Friday morning will remain in VFR flight category across most sites. However, the exception will be the western and southeastern sites of KHOT, KADF, KPBF, and KLLQ which may see patchy, dense fog drop VSBY to MVFR flight category early on Thursday morning. An intermittent degradation to IFR flight category for VSBY briefly may be possible, but VSBY is forecast to remain in MVFR flight category at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 72 54 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 76 55 78 57 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 72 55 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 76 56 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 75 56 78 59 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 77 57 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 77 56 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 71 53 78 57 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 72 56 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 76 56 78 57 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 76 55 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 74 53 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 75 56 78 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...72 AVIATION...74