158
FXUS64 KLZK 161810 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
110 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

-Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist through
Friday.

-A cold front will move across the state Saturday into Sunday which
will bring rain and thunderstorm chances to Arkansas.

-Severe weather will be possible across parts of Arkansas on
Saturday, especially Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

-Cooler temperatures are expected from Sunday through early next
 week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

THURSDAY (TODAY):

A robust, upper lvl ridge will be settled across the Mid-South
region of the CONUS extending eastward over the Southeastern region
of the CONUS which will assist in the promotion of mostly sunny
skies and fair weather across the Natural State. Additionally,
regional sfc high pressure will lead to a continued advection of
southerly to southeasterly flow into Arkansas ushering a warm and
moist airmass across the state. Expect temperatures overall to
remain unseasonably warm for this time of the year averaging about 5
to 10 degrees above normal overall.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

A significant pattern shift in the upper lvls is forecast to take
place by late workweek (Friday). An upper lvl trof is projected to
dig over the Central Plains region of the CONUS and will drive a
cold front across Arkansas through Saturday and into Saturday night.
Latest model guidance of the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF continue to be in
cohesion with regard to the occurrence of rain and thunderstorm
activity ahead of and along the placement of the cold front.
Additionally, in contrast to yesterday as far as placement and
timing, the models are converging on a later overall solution of
the cold front to push through the state.

Unfortunately, the model solutions have now trended toward the ECMWF
solution from yesterday which slowed the cold front arrival into
Arkansas with limited rain and thunderstorm development ahead of the
frontal boundary. In response, this would allow for max diurnal
heating ahead of the boundary which would promote an environment
across a large portion of Arkansas to become unstable. In this
scenario the potential for a higher-end severe weather event is
greater leading to significant severe thunderstorms capable of all
hazards: damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes cannot
be ruled out.

Over the next couple of days short-term model (high resolution)
guidance will continue to be closely analyzed to monitor the latest
model outcomes and their cohesion or divergence from one another to
forecast the likely evolution of the Saturday event.

Into the day on Sunday, expect precipitation to come to an end
across the eastern portion of the state. A much cooler and drier
(via both the rain-cooled environment and the cooler and drier
airmass behind the cold front) will lower temperatures to near or
slightly below average temperatures for mid-October transitioning
into later October.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

Into Monday, the cold front will push well east of Arkansas and sfc
high pressure will occupy the region. In response this will usher in
a cooler and drier airmass which will place temperatures overall
near normal for mid-October transitioning into late-October.

Into Tuesday and Wednesday, finishing the forecast period, a cold
front will move quickly through the state of Arkansas. However,
details regarding this frontal boundary are low confidence,
especially regarding how much moisture and warm temperatures the
boundary will have to utilize. Regardless, POP chances will increase
for both days and an isolated thunderstorm is not out of the
question with this second system that moves across the state.
Details will become refined over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Expect VFR condns to prevail thru the PD w/ only SCTD mid to high
lvl cloud cover to note thru Thurs night into Fri mrng. Erly winds
wl persist thru the remainder of Thurs, w/ winds bcmg Srly by Fri
aftn.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     59  87  63  86 /   0   0   0  70
Camden AR         61  88  65  86 /   0   0   0  40
Harrison AR       59  83  63  81 /   0   0  10  80
Hot Springs AR    62  87  66  86 /   0   0   0  50
Little Rock   AR  63  87  67  85 /   0   0   0  50
Monticello AR     62  91  66  88 /   0   0   0  30
Mount Ida AR      62  87  66  85 /   0   0  10  60
Mountain Home AR  60  85  63  83 /   0   0  10  80
Newport AR        62  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  60
Pine Bluff AR     62  90  66  88 /   0   0   0  40
Russellville AR   63  88  66  86 /   0   0  10  70
Searcy AR         61  88  63  86 /   0   0   0  50
Stuttgart AR      62  89  67  87 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...72