393
FXUS64 KLZK 142345
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
545 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 139 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

-Seasonably warm conditions 10-20 degrees above normal, with
 highs near record levels in the 70s to lower 80s Saturday

-A cooling trend anticipated into early next week, but should
 remain above normal levels into the middle of next week

-Wetter weather anticipated starting Monday, with significant
 accumulations probable for the middle and latter portions of next
 week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Quiet weather persists across the Natural State this morning,
thanks to surface high pressure and an anomalously strong ridge
that is dominating across the central portions of the country.
This is resulting in mostly clear skies, with only some scattered
mid- level clouds present due to some enhanced lower level
moisture lingering across the region. Winds will continue to
remain out of the southerly direction over the next couple of days
as ridging remains over the Gulf of America. The bigger story
over the next couple of days is the abnormally warm temperatures
for this time of year, where several locations may see afternoon
highs tomorrow reach near record levels.

As the aforementioned ridging begins to weaken, expect cooling
conditions heading into next week, as a shortwave from a strong
Pacific troughing feature eventually ejects east of the Rockies
going into early next week. The initial wave will increase rain
chances Monday into Tuesday, although moisture profiles would
suggest not overly robust accumulations with this initial system.

As the amplified trough across western CONUS shifts eastward going
into the middle of the week, better dynamics and moisture return
from the Gulf will be more robust. This will result in much more
favorable shower and thunderstorm conditions across the state
starting Wednesday and extending through the rest of the week as
multiple shortwaves eject downstream of the longwave trough. Much
better agreement amongst the ensemble and deterministic output
makes this outlook a sure thing, just some differences in onset
and timing of heavier rain periods.

While the initial rainfall would be beneficial across the state,
a look at NBM QPF amounts would suggest widespread storm totals
exceeding 1-2", with a reasonable worst case (90th percentile) of
4-8" Wednesday through Friday. As we draw closer in time,
gathering more details about timing and trends of rain amounts
will be monitored, as well as severe potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conds are expected through much of the overnight period.
Lowered CIGs are possible between 10z-15z Sat morning, owing to
low-level moisture advection, resulting in increasing stratus
along and adjacent to the I30/I57 corridors. Winds overnight
should settle around 5 kts from the S. Winds/wind gusts on Sat
will increase out of the SW between 10-25kts. FEW to SCT mid/high
clouds are possible on Sat but VFR conds will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  79  54  71 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         58  79  58  78 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       60  79  50  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    59  79  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  60  79  59  73 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     60  79  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      60  81  58  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  58  80  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        60  79  57  71 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     60  80  59  75 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   59  82  56  75 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         57  79  56  72 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      60  79  59  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70