332
FXUS64 KLZK 272351
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
651 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Quiet conditions exist across the region early this morning with
mainly clear skies, sans the southwest, where cloud cover is more
prevalent. Some patchy fog is also showing up on some of the
local observations, especially in those areas that experienced
the heaviest rain last night. Temperatures have already fallen
into the 60s across the state and still expecting widespread lows
in the 50s by daybreak.

Overall not to many value changes will be made to the forecast
this morning as guidance has not deviated much from its previous
thinking. Upper pattern remains highly amplified with upper
ridging over the western high plains, bookmarked on both ends by
troughing. Pattern places the CWA squarely in NW flow aloft which
looks to prevail through the entire forecast cycle.

On the surface, high pressure over the Ohio Valley will provide
dry conditions for the majority of the day but some of the CAMS
guidance is bringing some precipitation into the NW corner of the
state by late in the afternoon. High temperatures will be their
coolest over the west and northwest where cloud cover will be
more significant in these areas. Highs will range from the mid 70s
where clouds are expected to near 90 where they are not.

Precipitation chances will increase through Wednesday night as a
stout upper wave rides the aforementioned NW flow but POPS really
start to ramp up Thursday, as an MCS will likely be ongoing
somewhere in the SE Kansas/SW Missouri/NE Oklahoma area and
heading in our direction. System will bring showers and storms to
the state on Thursday, increasing in coverage as the day
progresses.

Guidance is showing a significant outflow boundary developing
over NW Arkansas by mid afternoon which will initiate another
round of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
on the stronger side, especially over SW AR where dew points will
be higher and some decent CAPE will reside.

Rain chances will continue through most of Thursday night and
into early Friday with POPS decreasing from north to south and
then being confined to the AR/LA border by early afternoon.
Several inches of precipitation will be possible for the majority
of the state as these waves of precipitation move through.

A few leftover showers can not be ruled out over the south early
Saturday but the majority of the holiday weekend is looking dry.
Temperatures will be cooler than average on Thursday and Friday
with widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation chances
before starting to rise over the weekend. Widespread highs in the
70s on Friday, with even some 60s in the higher terrain areas,
will quickly turn into widespread 80 degree readings by the end
of the period. However, NW flow will be keeping relatively dry air
over the region with dew points in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

VFR conds were ongoing despite SHRA/RA overspreading Cntrl
sections of AR. This activity should generally decrease in
coverage over the next few hrs before another more potent wave
arrives during the overnight period. The next round of SHRA/RA
should bring MVFR/IFR CIGs before 12z to Nrn sites, then spread
SE through the daytime. Mentioned TSRA over Cntrl/Srn sites during
the afternoon associated with a stronger upper level disturbance
passing through the flow. Winds may become gusty between 15-30 kts
near convection with reduced VIS`bys, otherwise Erly winds around
10 kts are expected. No significant improvements from MVFR/IFR
CIGs are anticipated to end the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  70  58  78 /  70  90  50  30
Camden AR         66  86  64  76 /  10  80  90  80
Harrison AR       59  66  59  73 /  90 100  50  30
Hot Springs AR    64  75  63  75 /  30  90  90  60
Little Rock   AR  64  70  63  75 /  40  80  80  50
Monticello AR     68  85  65  78 /  10  70  90  70
Mount Ida AR      63  76  63  74 /  30  90  90  60
Mountain Home AR  59  68  58  76 /  80  90  40  20
Newport AR        62  70  60  79 /  50  80  50  20
Pine Bluff AR     66  79  63  76 /  20  80  90  60
Russellville AR   63  71  63  76 /  60  90  80  40
Searcy AR         61  70  61  76 /  70  90  70  40
Stuttgart AR      64  72  63  76 /  50  80  80  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...70