Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
495 FXUS64 KLZK 130443 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1043 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 325 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 -Dry and warming conditions will persist through the end of the week. -Above-normal temperatures expected, as area readings moderate back to the mid 70s by Friday. -Some areas will approach record values within a few degrees on Saturday with highs near 80 degrees. -Rain chances return to the forecast area by the end of the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Calm and chilly conditions were noted acrs the FA as recent night time sat imgry depicted mostly clear skies, and sfc obs indicated temps in the mid 50s to low 50s acrs the state. The warming trend is expected to continue thru the remainder of the week as low-lvl Srly flow prevails and Cntrl US H500 ridging builds, w/ high temps moderating towards the low 70s. By Sat, current base-blended guidance suggests high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s acrs AR. Some locations would be nearing record daily high values to a few degrees. In the long term, dProg/dt`s for upper level flow are still somewhat variable, as aforementioned ridging is set to weaken, allowing for Wrn US troughing to deepen. The time line on the return of rain chances remains lagged, w/ more widespread and higher magnitude PoPs more lkly by early next week, and as early as Sun night. Given the fcst higher humidity/dewpoints by the weekend, some thunderstorms may be possible w/ returning rain chances as well, but confidence remains low and uncertain on hazardous weather potential near the end of the fcst PD. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 The majority of the forecast period from early Thursday morning through early Friday morning will remain in VFR flight category across most sites. However, the exception will be the western and southeastern sites of KHOT, KADF, KPBF, and KLLQ which may see patchy, dense fog drop VSBY to MVFR flight category early on Thursday morning. An intermittent degradation to IFR flight category for VSBY briefly may be possible, but VSBY is forecast to remain in MVFR flight category at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 73 43 72 54 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 75 49 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 74 44 72 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 72 47 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 72 47 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 73 52 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 78 47 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 73 42 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 71 44 72 55 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 73 48 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 73 45 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 72 42 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 70 48 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...74