496
FXUS64 KLZK 160617
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1217 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 139 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

-Near record high temperatures today as highs reach the upper 70s
 to lower 80s across the state

-A cooling trend anticipated into early next week, but should
 remain above normal levels into the middle of next week

-Rain chances starting Monday, with significant accumulations
 expected for the middle and latter portions of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

High pressure continue to persist across the Southeast, resulting
in mostly quiet weather conditions over the weekend. Some breezy
afternoon southwesterly winds will be noticeable across the region
this afternoon, enhanced from the high pressure circulation over
the Gulf and a weak surface low pressure passing to the north.
Afternoon high temperatures are expected to peak in the upper 70s
to lower 80s, which will approach record levels for this date.
After today winds will relax and cooler temperatures will settle
into the region as the persistent ridging begins to weaken due to
remnants of a strong Pacific trough ejecting east of the Rockies
early next week.

Guidance is becoming more in phase with what to expect next week
as more active weather is set to impact the Natural State. The
initial shortwave Monday will assist in deepening surface low
pressure across the Plains, resulting in increasing rain chances
Monday into Tuesday. However, not overly impressive moisture
profiles will limit coverage and amounts, as even probabilities of
measurable precipitation from the NBM peaks from 20% across
southern Arkansas to 70% across northern Arkansas spanning Monday
into early Tuesday morning.

Ridging will again amplify Tuesday resulting in highs reaching
the upper 70s to low 80s temperatures, dependent on lingering
clouds. However, profiles will begin to moisten quickly going into
Wednesday as moisture quickly advects in ahead of the next
troughing feature from the amplified Pacific trough, marking the
onset of a prolonged wet period during the middle to latter
portions of next week.

Notable improvement in ensemble/deterministic alignment indicates
a shift in later timing of rainfall onset on Wednesday, but storm
total rain amounts remains generally unchanged through Friday,
where northwest Arkansas remains favored for the highest rain
amounts. Based on NBM percentiles, widespread 2-4" remains a
reasonable expectation, with higher amounts exceeding 6-8"
(highest potential in northwest Arkansas) should the 75th-90th
percentile NBM amounts come to fruition. Most areas will receive
beneficial rain for this period, but areas that receive the
highest amounts, especially in a short amount of time, could
result in a flash flood threat. In terms of severe weather
potential, very low probabilities at this point due to the lack of
details, but the best available instability would be out ahead of
the main cold front in the warm sector, which looks to be
generally set up across Arkansas on Wednesday.

Once the wet conditions subsides late next week, the mid-level
pattern seemingly will remain active, but decent spread is present
in terms of the progressiveness or amplification of the persistent
Pacific longwave troughing heading through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conds are expected to prevail through much of the TAF period.
A cold front will push across the state during the predawn hrs
this morning over Nrn sites into mid-day/early Sun afternoon over
Srn sites. Winds will switch to the N/NE at around 10 kts on Sun
in wake of the FROPA. Expecting some low-stratus to develop
overnight ahead of the boundary and perhaps some patchy FG.
CIGs/VIS should remain VFR but could approach MVFR category at
times. SKC are expected N of the boundary on Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     81  53  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         80  58  76  57 /   0   0  10  10
Harrison AR       80  48  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    80  58  74  54 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  80  59  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     81  61  77  56 /   0   0  10  10
Mount Ida AR      81  57  76  54 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  82  49  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        78  55  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     81  59  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   82  56  75  51 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         81  56  72  46 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      80  60  72  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70