646
FXUS64 KLZK 170643
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
143 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

-Oppressively hot conditions continue again this Monday...but
northern sections of the state will see some relief from this heat
after the frontal passage early this morning

-Some chances for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
forecast for central sections along and behind the front. An
isolated strong to severe storm may be seen...with damaging winds
the primary threat

-Dry and hot conditions return by mid week for most areas...but a
more significant cool down and rain chances are possible by Thursday
and Friday. The cooler weather also looks to persist into the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

After many locations saw some of hottest temps so far this year on
Sun...a weak cold front is dropping SE into the state early this Mon
morning. Some isolated convection has been noted along/behind this
front during the evening hrs...and some isolated convection may
continue to remain possible with this front as it drop SE into
central sections of the state by around sunrise.

Expect the SFC front to stall over central to SRN sections of the
state by late this Mon afternoon and early evening. Higher moisture
levels look to pool near or just behind this front along the I-40
corridor...along with a bit of compressional heating also possible.
This will keep the potential for extreme heat to continue for many
areas...mainly along the I-40 corridor and along the AR River Valley
region to the SE. Further SW...less moisture and heat will
exist...but will still see heat index values near or over 105. Have
kept Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories in place for most
areas...though have removed counties across NRN/NWRN sections where
temps will be several deg cooler and dewpts also lower well behind
the front. Will likely need additional heat headlines for Tue as
well...but will hold off for now to figure out some details on where
the hottest air will remain...and how far the front moves south.

There will also be some increased chances for isolated to widely
scattered SHRA/TSRA this Mon afternoon/evening as a weak upper wave
approaches from the NW in the weak NW flow aloft. Expect the best
potential for seeing this convection along/just behind the SFC
front...which will be generally along an east/west corridor from
Mena to Little Rock to Stuttgart. While organized strong/SVR Wx is
not expected...very high instability could cause any storm to develop
to become briefly strong/SVR...with damaging downburst winds the
primary threat. Locally heavy rainfall could also be seen...but
given the recent very hot and dry weather...this will only lead to a
very isolated flash flood threat.

By Tue...the SFC front looks to lift back north...with SRLY flow
becoming dominant once again. Chances for afternoon convection will
return as well...mainly across the SRN/SWRN portion of the CWA. By
Wed...increasing SWRLY flow will be seen...which may bring
increasing mixing and drier air down to the SFC for the afternoon
hrs. This will cause temps to warm considerably Wed afternoon...with
many areas over 100 possible again. Heat headlines will again be
needed for at least some of the area as a result. The wildfire
threat will also increase due the the SW winds and very hot/dry air.

A more substantial upper shortwave will drop SE into the state on
Thu...with a new SFC front moving south through the region. This
will bring more chances for SHRA/TSRA and a more substantial relief
from the heat by later this week into the weekend. While rain
chances will decrease this upcoming weekend...the upper ridge will
remain west of AR...with NRLY upper flow persisting over the
weekend. This will keep temps from warming back to what has been
observed over the past several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conds are expected to prevail through the period. Mentioned
low-end PoPs at KLIT, KHOT, and KPBF Mon afternoon/evening
associated with a slow moving frontal boundary. N of the front,
winds should N/NE at around 10 kts and S of the front, winds
should be W/SW at less than 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     99  72  98  77 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR        103  75 101  76 /  20  10  20  20
Harrison AR       90  70  95  77 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR   102  75 101  77 /  40  30  20  20
Little Rock   AR 104  77 100  79 /  40  30  10  10
Monticello AR    103  78 101  78 /  20  10  30  20
Mount Ida AR     101  74 100  76 /  40  30  20  20
Mountain Home AR  92  70  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR       100  73  96  75 /  10   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR    102  75  99  76 /  40  30  20  10
Russellville AR  102  75 101  76 /  20  10  10  10
Searcy AR         99  74  98  74 /  10  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR     102  76  99  77 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-
024-042-052>054-062-063-066>069-123-137-140-141-221>223-237-240-
241-340-341.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ025-
031>034-039-043>047-055>057-064-065-121-122-130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...70