911
FXUS64 KLZK 040141
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
741 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 741 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- The precipitation will exit the region this afternoon with a
  very small chance of precipitation across the north tonight.

- Overall dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the
  forecast period with temperatures close to seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Latest guidance is showing that the current forecast is pretty much
on target and only some minor modifications will be made this
morning. Attention will be focused for the next several hours on a
broken line of convection located over far eastern OK at this time.

This line of showers and thunderstorms continues to advance towards
western AR at this time. However, these storms are running into a
much more unfavorable environment, i.e, a much more stable air mass.
Still, some gusty winds and even a brief QLCS spin up can not be
discounted through the remainder of the night although odds are
quickly diminishing.

Upper pattern this morning remains highly amplified with H5 ridges
located over the SE CONUS and over the Great Basin/Intermountain
west. Located in between these features is upper level troughing
that extends from the Southern/Central Plains and into the Mid
Missouri Valley. Embedded in the base of this feature is upper level
low pressure. Surface low pressure is over south central KS with a
cold frontal boundary extending of said low and located in far
eastern Oklahoma and curving southwest into northern/central TX.

As this trough moves to the east, showers and thunderstorms will
overspread the FA. Southwest flow continues to provide a decent
enough moisture axis where the storms seem to be focused on. This
line of convection will move east during the day but overall the
severe threat looks limited with widespread cloud cover. Stability
appears to be limited until the early to mid afternoon with CAMS
guidance showing some destabilization over the east and east central
parts of the CWA where the best chances of seeing stronger winds
could occur. Any bowing segments could still pop off a quick QLCS
tornado. Most areas are still likely to see beneficial rain from
this system.

Guidance has this line of convection crossing the Mississippi River
early this evening taking the majority of the precipitation with it.
A weak impulse embedded in the base of the departing trough will
brush the northern row or two of counties in the FA and will need to
have at least minimal precipitation chances through the night.

In the wake of the system, broad southwest flow develops once again
as another mid level impulse/upper trough drops into the TX/OK
panhandles by Thursday morning. Trough moves across the north
Thursday night and into Friday but with limited moisture to work
with, only minimals POPS and QPF can be justified. Sprawling H5
ridge forecast to develop over the southern plains this weekend
which moves over the state early next week.

Concerning temperatures, cooler air will follow the boundary for
Wednesday but quickly rebound as the aforementioned SW flow aloft
develops on Thursday. Temperatures once again cool down Friday
through the weekend as northwest flow returns with the upper ridge
located to our west. As the ridge moves east early next week,
temperatures will warm in response.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Improving conditions from west to east will continue through this
evening. Lingering showers and storms across eastern terminals
will continue for the next couple of hours, otherwise quickly
improving conditions from IFR to VFR through the evening. Fog
chances overnight remain low across all terminals, but will have
to monitor any increasing potential going into the overnight
hours. Otherwise, winds will prevail out of the northwesterly
direction for most, if not all, of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     50  70  42  73 /  40   0   0   0
Camden AR         46  72  41  76 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       47  64  42  69 /  20   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    48  71  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  52  72  47  74 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     52  72  45  75 /  70   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      43  70  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  49  65  42  70 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        53  71  44  72 /  80   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     49  72  42  74 /  40   0   0   0
Russellville AR   49  68  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         50  71  42  74 /  40   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      52  71  45  74 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...77