962
FXUS64 KLZK 190529
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1129 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 256 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

-Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances across the
 northern portions of Arkansas early this morning

-Well above normal temperatures today and tomorrow, with some
 areas nearing record high temperature territory

-Mainly beneficial rains anticipated across the Natural State late
 this week, with the bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity
 Thursday and Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Some isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms have developed
across mainly southern Missouri early this morning, with some
potential that a few storms could develop across northern Arkansas
over the next several hours. CAM`s show some spotty showers and
storms possible along the cold front extending from the surface
low pressure currently centered over eastern NE mainly late today
and into this evening across mainly northern and eastern Arkansas
as the front exits east of the state tonight. Otherwise, very warm
temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal will challenge daily
record highs for some locations today and extending into tomorrow.

The anticipated weather disturbance set to impact the region later
this week continues to slow as the associated shortwave trough
aloft continues to delay progression eastward across the Plains
through the middle of the week. As the details become more clear
with timing and amounts, the impacts associated with this event
seemingly continue to decrease as storm total rainfall likewise is
decreasing. The warm front that will usher in enhanced lower level
moisture in from the southwest will spread northward across the
region on Wednesday, but the dynamical support for any shower or
thunderstorm activity will delay more into the early Thursday
timeframe, prior to the main cold frontal passage across the state
late Thursday into Friday.

Taking a glance at the latest rainfall amounts, most likely
(higher end) storm totals Wednesday through Friday remain around
1.00" (1-2"), with higher amounts of 2-3" (3-5") for western
Arkansas. Contrast with this outlook with the previous 24-48
hours, the most likely and higher end storm total amounts have
come down around 2". Thus, as guidance has come into better
agreement for this event, the downtrend in rainfall amounts for
the region suggest a beneficial rainfall event for the Natural
State as soils will be receptive and not cause excessive runoff as
the heaviest rains move through. However, any areas (which would
favor western Arkansas) that receive multiple heavy
thunderstorms/downpours in a short period would pose a low flash
flood threat.

Once the rainfall clears the area going into this weekend, another
amplifying ridge seems favored as another Pacific trough deepens
across the West Coast. There remains modest uncertainty on how
progressive this trough will be moving through the weekend and
early next week, but should the cutoff scenario come to fruition,
expect building high pressure and dry conditions through at least
this weekend. Whenever the Pacific trough ejects eastward, we can
expect another round of rain, but that might not be well into
next week as current projections suggests at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Expect VFR flight category between across all sites between the
forecast timeframe of early Wednesday morning and early Thursday
morning. Surface winds will be variable as a frontal boundary will
be stalling across the state. The site of KBPK is "AMD NOT SKED" due
to a communication issue that is in the process of being worked on.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     79  52  73  55 /  10  10   0  50
Camden AR         82  62  80  63 /   0  10  10  40
Harrison AR       82  47  71  55 /  10   0   0  60
Hot Springs AR    81  60  79  63 /  10  10  10  60
Little Rock   AR  81  60  77  62 /  10  20   0  40
Monticello AR     80  65  82  65 /   0   0  10  20
Mount Ida AR      84  58  81  62 /  10  10  10  70
Mountain Home AR  83  47  70  54 /  10   0   0  60
Newport AR        76  54  73  58 /  20  10   0  40
Pine Bluff AR     82  62  80  64 /   0  10  10  30
Russellville AR   87  52  77  60 /  10   0   0  50
Searcy AR         78  55  74  58 /  10  10   0  30
Stuttgart AR      80  61  77  63 /   0  20   0  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74