047
FXUS64 KLZK 252312
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
612 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Near average temps expected Saturday

- No real improvements in wildfire danger/drought conds until maybe
  middle to late part of next week

- Rain chances (20-30%) return late this weekend/early next week

- Better rain chances (30-60%) return mid/late part of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Aloft, a ridge was positioned over the region between two troughs
located near the Four Corners and just off the Mid-Altantic coast,
respectively. Near the surface, expansive high pressure was
situated invof the Great Lakes. Clockwise flow out away from the
surface high will provide E/NE winds to the state keeping T`s near
average and dew pts mainly in the 50s to lower 60s. Over the next
couple days, temps will modify but dew pts will be slow to
rebound. Predawn temps were in the mid 50s to mid 60s this
morning. Passing high clouds are expected today with high temps
climbing into the upper 70s to upper 80s. Saturday should be a
near rinse and repeat of Friday.

Late in the weekend, the upper ridge is anticipated to flatten out
and retrograde into Wrn TX/NM introducing NW flow across the the
state. An upper level disturbance, now much weaker than anticipated
24 hours ago, should pass through this flow triggering a few
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over W and NW AR
Saturday night into Sunday. Coverage does not look as optimistic
with many places expected to see little to no precipitation over the
weekend. Where rainfall occurs, QPF should be limited to a few
tenths of an inch or less.

By early to middle part of next week, the upper ridge is expected
to move back over the region as the aforementioned disturbance
pushes off to the E. During this time, no precipitation is
expected and temps are expected to climb into the 80s to lower
90s. Winds will become S/SWrly, advecting better moisture back
into the region.

Mid-to-late week still features the upper trough over the Four
Corners region ejecting into the Cntrl Plains. There is still quite
a bit of uncertainty regarding the evolution (trough vs closed low)
and timing of this feature moving into the MS Valley. Deterministic
long range guidance is still more bullish with the orientation and
Swrd extent of the trough/closed low when compared to ensemble
counterparts. While rain chances are best mid-to-late week, PoPs are
now slightly lower (30-60% range) with greatest probability of
higher totals focused over the NW half of the state. Comparing the
model data now to this same time yesterday, PoP timing has been
delayed an additional 12-36 hours. Given this, timing carries the
most uncertainty with this forecast which could be pushed back
even further into late next week depending on how difficult the
ridge is to remove from the region. Delaying appreciable
precipitation or reducing potential rainfall amounts will only
serve to worsen drought conditions locally, especially now that
drier air in place across the state which in turn increases daily
evapotranspiration.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Upper level high pressure will dominate through the forecast
period. Widespread VFR conditions will prevail with winds light
and out of the east to northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  60  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         89  63  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       83  62  84  63 /   0   0   0  30
Hot Springs AR    86  63  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  86  63  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     88  64  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      87  61  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  83  61  82  61 /   0   0  10  20
Newport AR        84  61  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     87  62  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   86  63  86  65 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         86  61  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      88  62  88  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56